????我一度認為，如同Linux和Web服務在八、九年前起到的作用一樣，安卓系統（Android）將成為后PC設備互聯網時代的中流砥柱，扮演集成各種元素的核心角色。不同的是，Linux是在后臺挑大梁，默默無聞地支撐著亞馬遜（Amazon）和谷歌（Google）等服務，而安卓則主要面向用戶，因此，龐大的平臺規模（及其隨之誕生的既成事實標準）必將為其帶來巨大收益；這一點，自微軟視窗操作系統時代以來，尚無其他軟件能與之比肩?？纯磭H消費電子展（CES）上的一系列新品發布，人們肯定也會生出這樣的感想。

????眼下，安卓勢不可擋、前途已定的說法不絕于耳。然而，這種論調恰恰掩蓋了一個事實，那就是安卓一統天下的夢想正在破滅。2011年發生的三件事徹底摧毀了這一夢想，現在我們捧著的不過是已然燒焦的、面目全非的尸體罷了：

????這三件事是：

????1、谷歌收購摩托羅拉（Motorola），并且疏遠與所有一級手機制造商的關系（至今沒有一家廠商敢于公開坦承認這一點，但是都已經出臺了各自的“備用計劃”）。

????2、微軟（Microsoft）以知識產權保護的名義，向上述手機廠商收取許可費用。

????3、圣誕假期中，亞馬遜發售了一款毫無特色的老版安卓系統，竟然取得了極大的成功。

????這三件事中，第一件完全可以避免。但是，爭奪下一代計算界面控制權的斗爭利益攸關，另外兩件事也許只不過反映了這場游戲的本質。

????這場大象之舞的結局如何？這得看當事者所處的位置了：

????網絡愛好者： HTML5的擁躉應該感到欣喜若狂才是，因為這意味著那些瞄準新興安卓應用市場的初創公司將再次勃興。這些公司開發的界面不僅將繁重的部署工作推給了網絡（看看Kindle Fire和Google Market之間壁壘森嚴的架勢，再想想其背后的原因所在，就能明白），而且還能將運行時間這個環節甩給手機瀏覽器。然而，這個如意算盤打不響，特別是從短期來看尤其如此；而且這么做的將導致一些關鍵設備傳感器無法訪問。但是，初創公司根本就不可能同時支持蘋果的iOS系統、以及谷歌摩托羅拉、HTC、亞馬遜等派系形形色色的安卓系統。因此，這一新興標準將大獲全勝。

????用戶：還記得過去的日子嗎？那時，運營商主宰著一切，不管他們提供什么晚餐，用戶都得照單全收。盡管我們眼下并非要重返那個年代，但我還是忍不住想起我與一家美國運營商產品負責人的一番談話。那是在去年的移動世界大會（Mobile World Congress）上，他對我說，他們眼中的理想世界是“共有5~10個平臺，每家占據10~20%的份額?！痹蚝卧?？因為在如此混亂的局面中，總得有人幫助用戶理清一切，而運營商恰恰能籍此重返市場的主導地位。我不能確定他們的這個美夢能否成真，但眼下設備操作系統市場四分五裂的局面顯然為他們提供了一個良機。如果運營商曾經在哪方面大顯身手的話，那就是：他們以親身實踐證明，系統預裝功效神奇，能夠徹底摧毀用戶體驗。

????I used to think that, as with Linux and web services in the early part of last decade, Android was going to be the mortar for the Internet of post-PC devices— an essential ingredient to put stuff together. And unlike Linux which puttered away quietly in the background doing the heavy lifting for services like Amazon and Google, Android was largely user-facing and would therefore benefit from massive platform scale (and the resulting de-facto standard it would create) in a way no piece of software since Microsoft Windows had. To to see the early onslaught of CES announcements, one would think so.

????What all of the talk of Android momentum and inevitability obscures, however, is that the dream of a common Android is dying. Three events in 2011 burned it and we're now holding onto a charred corpse that is quite different:

????The three events:

????1. Google buying Motorola and alienating all of the tier one handset makers (none of which to this day have the spine to state it publicly but all of which have now come up with their "plan B"),

????2. Microsoft extracting licensing fees from these same handset makers in the form of IP indemnification and

????3. Amazon shipping a wildly successful, yet unidentifiable, version of an old Android build over the holiday... and making it a wild success.

????Of the the three, #1 was completely avoidable but the other two may just have been the name of the game when there is so much at stake in the fight of who paints the interface for the next generation of computing.

????The result of this elephant dance? Well it depends on who you are:

????Web heads: All of the HTML5 folks should be ecstatic as it means that we're going to see a resurgence in startups that target the emerging Android splinters with interfaces which leave the heavy lifting on the deployment side to the the web (see the bit about how the Kindle Fire blocked the Google Market and vice versa for why) and on the runtime side to the mobile browser. It won't be as nice -- and in the short-term and it will lack access to key device sensors (though it may accelerate our getting those as API extensions of the DOM) -- but it is just not feasible to support iOS, Googlorola Android, HTC Sensedroid, Amazon Fire Droid, etc. if you are a startup. Big win for this emerging standard.

????Users: Remember the olden days when the carriers were in charge and you got whatever they were serving for dinner? Well we aren't ever going back to that but I can't help remember a conversation I had with the head of product for a U.S. carrier last year at Mobile World Congress where he told me that their ideal world was "5-10 platforms with 10-20% each." Why? Because in that mess someone has to help the user figure it all out and they are back to being in a pole position. I'm not sure they'll pull it off, but device OS fragmentation definitely gives them another at-bat and if there is one thing these guys have proven it is that preloads work magic to overcome totally busted user experiences.