Facebook會重蹈雅虎覆轍嗎？

????整個科技界都屏住了呼吸，等待著Facebook下周提交首次公開募股（IPO）申請。我本人也非常興奮，因為Facebook是頭不折不扣的巨獸，它徹底變革了互聯網。

????可是，剛剛過去的這個周末里，我反復思考Facebook的情況后，不禁產生了一種不安的感覺：該公司的成功似乎……只是曇花一現。盡管有些奇怪，可在某些方面，Facebook讓我想起雅虎（Yahoo）。不是現在的雅虎，而是過去的雅虎，我懷疑，Facebook在未來十年中會不會像雅虎一樣衰落。

????下面列出我在這家公司身上發現的主要的薄弱之處：

????1. 網絡碎片化。Facebook的成功很大程度上依賴于它最大規模地積聚互聯網用戶群，理解及貨幣化這一用戶群的能力。受網絡效應推動，社交網絡的發展應該會日益蓬勃?？墒?，我很難相信， Facebook十年之后的頁面訪問量還能獨霸天下。我想我們已經看到了一種趨勢：Facebook被當成人們身份與關系的大倉庫，而深層次的互動轉而在主旨更明確、分化更嚴重的社區進行。分享照片最好經由Instagram，產品的社交管理可在Pinterest上進行，自我表達通過Tumblr這樣的平臺最合適。沒錯，Facebook或多或少也具備上述功能，而且可以模仿上述公司，可是，瑞士軍刀式兼顧一切產品的模式很難獲得長遠勝利。

????2. 移動性不夠強。我認為，移動互聯網將使網絡碎片化趨勢進一步加快，Facebook面臨的一部分挑戰將由蘋果（Apple）創造的應用生態系統的規則所驅動。不過總的來說，Facebook的主要挑戰在于：它并非為“移動優先”而打造，而我們已經（或者說很快將會）身處一個移動優先的世界。我認為Facebook這樣的大公司要想在移動領域達到同樣的壟斷水平，將是非常困難的。Facebook在社交網絡領域搶占了谷歌（Google）的地盤，正因為后者并無天然社交性（而雅虎就差得更遠了）；同理我預計，從一開始就基于移動、分布式計算設備背景而打造的產品，也能迅速從Facebook那里攻城略地。

????3. 廣告效果。Facebook的收入頗為可觀，但大多依賴于廣告，可對于該網站作為廣告媒介的效果到底如何，我們還沒有定論。社交廣告可能很有吸引力，但觀眾的購買意愿很低，這點與顯示廣告相似。我還覺得，作為一種品牌廣告媒介，Facebook現在的廣告效果還有很大問題。你們記得今年有什么與Facebook深度整合、真正有影響力的品牌廣告營銷攻勢嗎？我沒印象，卻記得好幾個主要通過YouTube和Twitter進行的廣告活動。最后，Facebook尚未開發出一套有價值、有拓展性的、可用于Facebook之外的廣告產品。機會總比批評多，可如果該公司無法維持在這些領域的領先地位，除1和2兩條外，它還將面臨更多挑戰。

????The entire tech world is waiting with baited breath for the filing of Facebook's IPO next week. I'm excited – the company is an absolute monster and has completely transformed the web.

????But, as I've reflected on Facebook this past weekend, I can't help shake a nagging feeling that the company's success feels somehow…fleeting. In some weird ways, Facebook makes me think a bit of Yahoo (YHOO). Not the Yahoo of today, but the Yahoo of the past. And I wonder if Facebook will see a similar decline over the next 10 years.

????Here are the major vulnerabilities that I see:

????1. Network fragmentation. Facebook's success is largely based on its ability to aggregate the biggest audience on the Internet and understand and monetize that audience. Social networks should be incredibly robust because of network effects. But I really have a hard time believing that Facebook will continue to dominate the pageviews 10 years from now. I think we are already seeing that while Facebook serves as a great repository of one's identity and relationships, deep engagement is starting to happen in more targeted, fragmented communities. Photo sharing is done best on Instagram. Social curation of products on Pinterest. Self-expression on platforms like Tumblr. Sure, Facebook participates in this activity somewhat and could copy these companies, but Swiss Army knives almost never win long term.

????2. Not natively mobile. I think the mobile Internet will further accelerate the trend of network fragmentation. Part of Facebook's challenges will be driven by the rules of the app ecosystem that Apple has created. But mostly, Facebook's main challenge is that it was not built in a mobile-first context. We are in (or will soon be) in a mobile-first world, and I think it's hard to expect a large company like Facebook to own that domain in the same way. Just as Google (GOOG) ceded ground to Facebook because it was not natively social (and Yahoo was way, way worse), I can see Facebook ceding ground pretty quickly to products that are built with a mobile, distributed computing context in mind from the beginning.

????3. Advertising effectiveness. Facebook's impressive revenue relies largely on advertising. But I think the jury is still out on how transformative it as as an advertising medium. Social advertising can be pretty compelling, but intent is pretty low, much like display advertising. I also think that Facebook falls pretty far short currently on its effectiveness as a brand advertising medium. Do you remember any really impactful brand campaigns this year that were deeply integrated with Facebook? I don't, but do remember several that were largely driven through YouTube and Twitter. Finally, Facebook hasn't yet developed a meaningful off-Facebook advertising product that has scale. These are more opportunities than criticisms, but if the company doesn't maintain leadership in these areas, I see it as a further challenge in the face of #1 and #2.