Groupon上市大戲：熱鬧背后的隱憂

????科技公司首次公開募股最近比較少見，可一旦出現就是大動作。團購網站Groupon公開募股的規模就是最大的一次（Groupon是否屬于“科技公司”尚值得商榷，但人們就是這么認為的，這一點很重要）。當前的經濟環境被緊張氣氛所籠罩，這也是導致科技股首次公開募股非常少見的原因之一，在這種氛圍中，投資者的情緒通常都是緊張兮兮，至少可以說是謹小慎微。

????科技公司首次公開募股可能在一段時間內會呈現出某種歡樂的懷舊情緒，但在散戶投資者們加深對抵押貸款衍生品的了解之后，樂觀的情況將不會持續。

????迄今為止，Groupon仍在既定軌道內運行。其股票發行價定為20美元，為公司募集到了約7億美元，公司總價值評估為127億美元，僅次于谷歌公司（Google）2004年首次公開募股之后的評估價值231億美元。交易剛開始，Groupon的股價就上漲了40%，達到28美元，幾分鐘后達到30美元。隨后股價開始下探，但仍然比發行價高出很多，大約在28美元左右。

????《大西洋報》（The Atlantic）資深編輯德里克?湯姆森表示，目前促使人們買進Groupon股票有兩種可能因素。一是他們“真的認為存在一種商業模式支撐著Groupon這類公司，二是他們認為自己比其他投資者更聰明，能夠在首次公開募股之后的數周和數月內比那幫傻瓜更早地將Groupon股份脫手變現?！?/p>

????鑒于Groupon公司的歷史、商業模式以及類似IPO的近況，后一種動機似乎更靠譜。確實有些人非?？春肎roupon，但他們中的多數為Groupon公司員工或者公司投資人。而其他大部分人都關注該公司面臨的無窮無盡的風險和警示，包括：Groupon依然虧損；收益增長平平；公司會計實務遭受質疑（并進行了修正）；公司很明顯違反了“靜默期”慣例（公司在首日上市交易前的一段時期內或上市后幾周內對外不發布任何信息，保持靜默——譯者注）；首席運營官瑪戈?喬治亞迪斯在任職僅五個月后就突然辭職，轉投谷歌。

????更重要的是，Groupon公司的前景一片迷茫。有些商業業主已經開始抱怨，網上團購優惠券讓他們賠了錢（有點切中要害了），但并沒有使團購券買家們成為回頭客并以全價購買商品（這應該就是要害所在）。此外，進入團購業務領域的門檻也越來越低，這意味著競爭者蜂擁而入時Groupon必須嚴重依賴品牌營銷。（看看Groupon的市場追隨者們）

????該股開盤日大漲的另一個原因是：簡單的供需關系。公司發行了3,500萬股，僅僅是公司總價值的4.7%。在需求迅速增加的時候，股價當然大幅上漲。

????然而現在的情況又如何呢？彭博社（Bloomberg）選擇了最近兩年它認為“大熱”的25家首次公開募股公司。其中有20家公司的股價已經跌破發行價，而且大多遠遠低于發行價。另一家互聯網公司迪蒙德傳媒（Demand Media）的業務也不穩定，初始投資者占有的股份很多，其股價在首次公開募股之后已經暴跌68%。如果說到目前為止，Groupon公司的發展尚在正軌的話，它最好還是根據形勢隨機應變。

????譯者：李玫曉/汪皓

????Tech IPOs are infrequent enough these days that when one happens, it's a big deal. Groupon (GRPN) is turning out to be the biggest of big deals (whether Groupon is a "tech company" is open to question, but it's perceived that way, and that's what counts). The very infrequency of tech IPOs is among the factors drawing capital to them in an otherwise fear-gripped economy where the people deploying capital are generally skittish and -- seemingly at least -- careful.

????Maybe it's just that "tech IPO" carries a certain happy nostalgia for a time before many retail investors knew much about mortgage derivatives.

????So far, Groupon is staying on script. The stock priced at $20, raising about $700 million for the company and valuing it at $12.7 billion. That's second only to Google (GOOG), which was valued at $23.1 billion upon its 2004 IPO. Groupon shares opened 40% higher, at $28, and hit $30 just a few minutes after trading started. They have drifted down from that, but are still well above their open price, at around $28.

????The Atlantic's Derek Thompson says there are two possible factors motivating people buying Groupon today. Either they "really do believe that there is a business model at the bottom of the heap of Groupons, or else they think they're smarter than the rest of the market and can spin off Groupon shares on a bunch of suckers in the weeks and months after the IPO."

????Given Groupon's history and its business model, and the recent history of similar IPOs, the latter motive seems the more likely. There are some true believers in Groupon, but many of them seem to work for either Groupon or its investors. Much of the rest of the world appears focused on the seemingly endless list of red flags and caveats: Groupon still loses money; revenue growth is flat; the company's accounting practices have been questioned (and revamped); the company apparently violated "quiet period" rules; COO Margo Georgiadis abruptly left the company to work for Google after just five months.

????More fundamentally, Groupon's prospects are far from predictable. There have been complaints from business owners that online coupons lose them money (which is sort of the point) but don't bring coupon users back to buy at full price (which is supposed to be the point.) Further, there are few barriers to entry in Groupon's business, which means that it must rely heavily on branding even as competitors pile in. (Meet Groupon's groupies)

????Another reason for the stock's opening-day pop: simple supply and demand. The company issued 35 million shares, or just 4.7% of the total. Add in the buzz-propelled demand and there couldn't help but be a huge price spike.

????But what happens now? Bloomberg picked 25 IPOs over the past two years that it labeled "hot." Of those, 20 have sunk below their opening price - often well below. Demand Media (DMD), another Internet company with a shaky business and lots of initial investor interest, is down 68% since its IPO. If Groupon has followed the script so far, it had better start improvising soon.