亞馬遜：揮金如土，布局未來

????亞馬遜（Amazon）未能達到其盈利預期，引發媒體尖刻批評：這個電子商務巨頭“揮金如土”，如今終于自食其果。即便較為溫和的報道，也多多少少地將亞馬遜描述成一家大手大腳或大肆揮霍的公司。其股價在周三大幅下跌，開盤后幾分鐘即下降近10%。

????亞馬遜真的是個敗家子嗎？

????亞馬遜財務負責人湯姆?史庫塔克認真描述了公司支出增加的原因。他在同分析師的電話會議中稱，“我們正投資，以便大幅擴容?！?。他說的是亞馬遜的分銷設施以及面向視頻、音樂、電子書和其他數字產品的服務器空間，亞馬遜希望在不遠的將來大幅提高上述產品的銷量。

????同時，亞馬遜近期還推出了Kindle Fire，積極準備與蘋果（Apple）以及其影碟租賃及流媒體服務供應商Netflix 和在線音樂服務商Spotify等他競爭者一決高下。Kindle Fire旨在挑戰iPad和其他平板電腦。Fire將于下個月發售，屆時售價將為199美元，接近其成本價格，比蘋果最便宜的iPad還要便宜200美元。Fire短期內不會對亞馬遜的利潤率提升有多大好處，但該公司的目的是向人們銷售盡可能多的Fire，這樣它就可以向人們銷售自己數字產品，以及實體產品，因為Fire最終將被優化為一個移動的亞馬遜商店。

????這筆投資是否成功，可能很大程度上取決于有多少客戶會接受——或者甚至偏好——Fire的小屏幕：Fire的屏幕為7英寸，而iPad的顯示器為9.7英寸。

????這些投資對于亞馬遜的計劃而言是否數額過于龐大？還有，這些計劃是否根本就非明智之舉？對于這些問題，觀察者們可能有不同看法。但如果將這些投資是為亞馬遜“消費習慣”的證據，就等于相信亞馬遜2012年第三季度比其2012年或是2015年又或是2025年第三季度或是中間所有季度都更重要。亞馬遜投資者關系頁上寫道：“我們致力于成為這個星球上最以客戶為中心的公司，我們面向三大客戶群體：消費者客戶、銷售商客戶以及開放商客戶?！鄙厦娌]有說：“我們致力于每個季度都超出分析師們的預期?！?/p>

????而且這次它確實沒有做到這一點。亞馬遜本季度的利潤下滑了73%，降至6,300萬美元，或每股14美分。分析師們對利潤的預測平均約為每股24美分。該公司甚至警告稱，其在第四季度可能出現虧損。資產管理公司Robert W. Baird & Co的.分析師科林?塞巴斯汀向彭博新聞（Bloomberg News）表示，如果亞馬遜的投資僅使收入增長，但“其利潤并未出現相應增長，投資者就會開始撓頭了?！?/p>

????沒錯。但是現在就已經到了撓頭的時候了嗎？該公司上個月剛剛推出了Fire，三周后才將發布該產品?，F在完全無從猜測這些平板電腦會對數字產品或實體產品的銷售產生多大的刺激作用。周二史庫塔克只肯透露說Fire的預售“非?；鸨?。亞馬遜稱，9月28日，即該公司Fire及其它Kindle產品面世當日，是Kindle系列所有產品有史以來定購量最大的一天。

????同理，該公司仍在打造其云計算服務，在過去一年，它增加了17個新的數據中心。這些都會侵蝕利潤，但長期來看應該會促進利潤增長。與此同時，隨著電子書迅速取代紙質書，消費者們正在紛紛購買各種型號的Kindle。

????亞馬遜的銷售額在本季度增長44%，與預期相符。該公司最近一次出現虧損是整整10年前，當時它也是在進行擴張并大舉投資于基礎設施以搶奪市場份額，而它也確實如愿以償。

????譯者：項航

????Amazon's earnings miss elicited a shrill response from the press: the e-commerce giant's "big-spending ways" finally caught up with it. Even some of the more muted coverage has, more or less, characterized Amazon as a shopaholic or spendthrift of sorts. The company's shares traded sharply lower on Wednesday, down nearly 10% a few minutes after the open.

????Is Amazon (AMZN) really a reckless spender?

????The company's finance chief, Tom Szkutak, soberly described the reasons for its increased outlays: "We're investing in a lot of capacity," he said during a conference call with analysts, referring to new distribution facilities and server space for the video, music, e-books and other digital products the company plans to sell a lot more of in the near future.

????Amazon is also gearing up for battle with Apple (AAPL) and other competitors -- like Netflix (NFLX) and Spotify -- with the new Kindle Fire, which is meant to take on the iPad and other tablets. When the Fire is released next month, it will sell for $199, which is at or near cost, by mos accounts, and which is $200 less than what Apple is charging for its cheapest iPad. That won't help margins much in the short-term either, but the idea is to get as many Fires into people's hands as possible so that Amazon can sell them all those digital products, as well as physical ones, since the Fire will be optimized as a mobile Amazon storefront.

????The test of whether the investment is successful might largely come down to how many customers will accept -- or even favor -- the Fire's smaller screen, which is 7 inches compared to the iPad's 9.7-inch display.

????Observers might differ over whether these investments are too large for what Amazon has planned. And they might differ over whether those plans are even wise to begin with. But characterizing the investments as evidence of a "spending habit" buys into the idea that Amazon's third quarter of 2012 is more important than its third quarter of 2012, or of 2015, or of 2025, or of all the quarters in between. "We seek to be Earth's most customer-centric company for three primary customer sets: consumer customers, seller customers and developer customers," says the message on Amazon's investor relations page. It doesn't say: "We seek to beat analysts' expectations every quarter."

????And in this case, it didn't. Amazon's profits fell 73%, to $63 million, or 14 cents a share. Analysts on average expected profits of about 24 cents. The company also warned that it might lose money in the fourth quarter. Colin Sebastian, an analyst with Robert W. Baird & Co., told Bloomberg News that if Amazon's investments add to revenue but "don't show a corresponding increase in earnings, investors start to scratch their heads."

????Sure. But should they be scratching yet? The company just introduced the Fire last month, and it won't be released for another three weeks. There's no way of even making a reasonable guess as to how the tablets might spur sales of either digital products or physical goods. Pre-orders of the Fire have been "extremely strong" was all Szkutak would say on Tuesday. Amazon said September 28, which the Fire and other new Kindle models were introduced, was its biggest order day ever for all flavors of the Kindle.

????Similarly, the company is still building up its cloud computing services and over the past year it added 17 new fulfillment centers. All of this ate into profits, but presumably will add to them over time. Meanwhile customers are flocking to all flavors of the Kindle as e-books rapidly take the place of bound books.

????Amazon's sales grew by 44% in the quarter, in line with expectations. The last time the company posted a loss was exactly 10 years ago, during another period of expansion and heavy investment in infrastructure to nab market share -- which is exactly what it did.