微軟收購Netflix的理由
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????史蒂夫?鮑爾默真可憐。他執掌的這家傳奇性的公司曾是計算機時代最成功的公司，如今卻面臨著品牌日益畏縮，股票不斷貶值的窘境，其股票的交易已經回落到1998年的水平。股東們對他的不滿日益加深。不僅憤怒的對沖基金經理們對他口誅筆伐，就連公司普通員工對他的支持率也在直線下降。要知道，他們中許多人手中也持有微軟（Microsoft）的股票和期權。 ????當然，這并不是什么新聞。一年前，微軟的股東們就大聲疾呼，要求公司創始人兼董事會主席比爾?蓋茨效仿史蒂夫?喬布斯，重返公司，扭轉乾坤，讓微軟重新成為IT業的中心。別人指著你最大的競爭對手對你說，你得好好跟他學，這種滋味簡直糟透了。如果此時恰逢這個對手的市值平生頭一回超越你，那就更糟糕了。 ????2000年1月，蓋茨將首席執行官的頭銜交給鮑爾默。他對于隱退時機的選擇可謂盡顯老練。此后，蓋茨繼續擔任公司的首席軟件架構師，直到2008年。之后，他就不再擔任全職工作，但留任公司非執行董事會主席。自那時起，微軟的股票下降了12%，而納斯達克（NASDAQ）指數卻上漲了20%。盡管投資者及其他人希望蓋茨重返公司的要求也在情理之中，但也不過是癡人說夢罷了。雖說如果微軟股票價格上漲，蓋茨個人的凈值也會因此受益，但其中的絕大部分還是會用于他的慈善事業——蓋茨基金會（Gates Foundation）。 ????即便蓋茨現在重返微軟也回天乏術。原因有二：首先，他不是史蒂夫?喬布斯。喬布斯需要蘋果公司（Apple），因為蘋果為他提供了一個絕佳的機會，使他能夠實現自己上世紀80年代是對個人計算機的設想，同時，他擁有將這個愿景變為現實的能力。相形之下，蓋茨的長項在于以殘酷無情的方式將本處于劣勢的操作系統變成行業標準。在個人計算機發展的初期，這也許是取得成功的唯一途徑，但卻與眼下云計算演進的方式背道而馳。 ????其次，微軟并未面臨破產。上個財年，其營業收入增長了12%，凈利潤增長了28%。與之前各代視窗操作系統相比， Windows 7改進可謂巨大；同樣，Windows Phone 7在智能手機操作系統領域內的競爭力也不可小視。此外，盡管谷歌公司（Google）推出了同類免費應用程序，但并不妨礙Office套裝軟件繼續暢銷。而且，憑借Xbox和Kinect，微軟已經一躍成為游戲領域的領頭羊，同時也成為數字視頻領域的潛在領導者。 ????問題是盡管微軟火力全開，但是其優異的表現并沒有反映在股票價值上。許多公司在云計算時代已經不再關注PC軟件，但是鮑爾默卻能繼續靠他賺取巨額利潤。如今云計算儼然已是整個IT業關注的焦點，但鮑爾默卻并不擅長發現新的增長點。因此，如果要解決微軟眼下面臨的難題，要做的不是罷免鮑爾默，而是增加一名聯合首席執行官。 ????在腹背受敵，競爭激烈的市場環境中，鮑爾默負責打理微軟這個IT巨頭的日常運營。作為首席運營官，他的表現無懈可擊。然而，他缺乏遠見，看不清技術和市場演進的方式。蓋茨在位時，曾經恰到好處地平衡了，此后的幾年，雷?奧齊扮演了這個角色。但是，微軟的企業文化過于墨守成規，它需要的是一名具有遠見卓識的領導人，此人必須固執己見，同時又具有優秀首席執行官應有的職業履歷。 ????誰是符合條件的人選呢？有些人雖然在討論之列，但微軟董事會對此大概已經胸有成竹。里德?哈斯亭斯帶領Netflix一路走來，拒絕妥協，克服重重困難，使公司躋身于云計算領域最重要的競爭者之列，市值升至140億美元。微軟手里有500億美元的閑置資金，它可以先買下Netflix，如果愿意，它仍然有足夠的資金再去收購諾基亞（Nokia）。 ????一旦收購Netflix，任命哈斯亭斯為聯合首席執行官，微軟便能重新成為IT業萬眾矚目的中心。Xbox正在從游戲機向主流互聯網電視設備過渡，Netflix可以加速這一過程。對于那些考慮用Windows Phone 7作為操作系統平臺的移動運營商來說，Netflix在平板電腦擬真應用開發領域內的成功無疑將進一步激發他們的興趣。微軟投資Facebook，亦可助Netflix一臂之力，使之在該社交網絡占有重要的一席之地。而且，哈斯亭斯對基于云計算領域內的機遇與困難有著深刻的理解，因而能專注于推動微軟走向未來；而鮑爾默則可以繼續打理傳統的PC軟件業務。 ????可以想見，如果微軟果真走這一步棋，Netflix客戶可能會寢食難安，他們也許會擔心Netflix將在微軟按部就班的企業文化中迷失自我。但是，最近數月，微軟股東們面臨的問題是，找出一個最佳方案，扭轉公司股票的頹勢。問題的答案不是比爾?蓋茨重返公司，而是收購Netflix，同時讓鮑爾默和哈斯亭斯共同執掌微軟。 ????譯者：大海 |
????Poor Steve Ballmer. Standing at the helm of one of the computer age's biggest success stories while its brand withers and its stock languishes at the same level it traded at in 1998. Shareholders are increasingly unhappy with him. Not only are angry hedge fund managers calling for his head,his approval rating among his own rank and file -- many of them owning Microsoft shares and options -- is sinking like a rock. ????This isn't new, of course. A year ago, Microsoft (MSFT) shareholders were clamoring for founder and Chairman Bill Gates, asking him to pull a Steve Jobs and return to the company to steer it back into the center of the tech world. It's bad enough having people pointing to your arch rival and suggesting it as a good role model for you. It's even worse when it happens as your arch rival surpasses you in market value for the first time ever. ????Gates handed over the title of CEO to Ballmer in January 2000, displaying a knack for the well-timed exit. He stayed on as chief software architect until July 2008, leaving his full-time job but remaining as non-executive chairman. Since then, Microsoft's stock has fallen 12% as the NASDAQ rose 20%. It's tempting for investors and others to want Gates to return, but it's just fantasy. Although Gates' net worth would benefit from a rise in Microsoft's stock, he's committed most of it to his charity, the Gates Foundation. ????There are two bigger reasons why Gates running Microsoft now wouldn't work. First, he's not Steve Jobs. Jobs needed Apple (AAPL) -- it was his best chance to achieve the vision for personal computing he had in the 1980s -- and his talent lay in making that vision real. Gates's skill lay in making an inferior operating software the industry standard through brute force. That may have been necessary in the adolescent years of PCs, but it's antithetical to the way cloud computing is developing. ????The second reason is that Microsoft simply isn't broken. Its revenue rose 12% in its last fiscal year and its net profit rose 28%. Windows 7 is a vast improvement over previous incarnations of the operating software, just as Windows Phone 7 is a viable competitor in smartphones. The Office suite of software continues to sell well, despite Google's (GOOG) free apps. And the Xbox and Kinect have made Microsoft a leader in gaming, and a potential leader in digital video. ????The problem isn't that Microsoft isn't firing on all cylinders, it's that this performance isn't reflected in the stock's price. Ballmer is succeeding at wringing profits from PC software that many had written off in the age of cloud computing. But he's not very good at finding new sources of growth as cloud computing takes center stage. Which is why the answer to Microsoft's problems isn't firing Ballmer, but in bringing on a co-CEO. ????Ballmer is the consummate chief operating officer, overseeing the day-to-day operations of a tech giant facing tough competition on many fronts. He is not a visionary, he's blind to the ways that technology and markets are evolving. Gates served as a good counterbalance, then Ray Ozzie tried to fill that role for a few years. But Microsoft's culture is so entrenched that it needs a visionary with a stubborn streak and a track record of success as a CEO. ????Who could fill this role? Some names have been tossed around, but the best answer may be sitting on Microsoft's own board. Reed Hastings has shepherded Netflix (NFLX) to a $14 billion market value, defying odds and overcoming obstacles to make Netflix a key player in cloud-based content. Microsoft has $50 billion in cash lying around, so it could buy Netflix and still have plenty enough left to buy Nokia (NOK) if it wanted. ????Buying Netflix and installing Hastings as co-CEO would position Microsoft to return to the center of the tech industry. Netflix could speed the Xbox' transition from a gaming console to a mainstream device connecting TVs to the Internet. Its success in creating a popular, immersive app for tablets could strengthen the appeal of mobile carriers considering Windows Phone 7 as a platform. Microsoft's investment in Facebook could help Netflix find a strong presence in that social network. And Hastings, who has a deep understanding about the opportunities and obstacles facing cloud-based content, could focus on pushing Microsoft into the future while Ballmer oversees the traditional PC-software businesses. ????Of course, the move might distress Netflix customers, who would fear the company getting lost inside Microsoft's rigid corporate culture. But the question facing Microsoft shareholders in recent months is, what is the best way for the company to turn the stock price around? The answer to that question isn't Bill Gates returning. It's Microsoft buying Netflix and Ballmer sharing the CEO spot with Hastings. |
