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    美國3月通脹升高,美聯儲有理由暫??紤]降息

    美聯社
    2024-04-12

    與一年前相比,美國整體消費物價上漲3.5%,高于2月份的3.2%。

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    美聯儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾。圖片來源:DAVID PAUL MORRIS/BLOOMBERG VIA GETTY IMAGES

    美國政府周三發布的一份報告稱,上個月,油價、房租和汽車保險導致美國的消費物價繼續大幅上漲,這可能讓美聯儲(Federal Reserve)暫??紤]今年何時和以多大幅度降息。

    2月至3月,剔除容易波動的食品和能源價格的消費物價上漲0.4%,這與前一個月的漲幅持平。與一年前相比,核心物價上漲了3.8%,與2月維持了相同的同比漲幅。美聯儲密切關注核心物價,因為核心物價為預測通脹走向提供了一個合理的指標。

    3月的通脹率連續三個月高于美聯儲2%的目標,這可能破壞美聯儲今年多次降息的前景。美聯儲官員最近明確表示,如果經濟健康,他們不會急于下調基準利率,盡管美聯儲之前預測今年會三次降息。

    3月份的數據可能也讓白宮失望,因為批評美國總統喬·拜登的共和黨人,可能將高物價歸咎于拜登,并以此破壞拜登的連任計劃。民調顯示,盡管就業市場健康,股市接近歷史新高,通脹也在穩步回落,但許多美國人仍批評拜登是造成高物價的罪魁禍首。

    美聯儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾強調,美聯儲的政策制定者們應該對通脹逐漸緩慢回落到2%的目標更有信心。鮑威爾的立場讓月度通脹報告引起了更多關注,它可能決定了美聯儲將在今年什么時候和以多大力度降低關鍵利率,甚至會決定美聯儲是否會降息。隨著時間的推移,降息將降低企業和消費者的借款成本,有助于刺激股市上漲。

    從2月到3月,整體消費物價上漲0.4%,與前一個月持平。與一年前相比,整體消費物價上漲3.5%,高于2月份的3.2%。

    疫情之后的通脹飆升提高了食品、汽油、房租和其他許多方面的成本。雖然通脹率較2022年6月9.1%的最高點有所回落,但平均物價依舊遠高于疫情之前的水平。

    今年早些時候,華爾街的交易商們預測,美聯儲將在2024年六次或七次下調關鍵利率。3月,美聯儲官員暗示,他們預測會三次降息。但1月和2月的通脹上漲,以及經濟增長依舊健康的信號,使多位美聯儲官員暗示今年降息次數將有所減少。

    上個月,雇主增加招聘,失業率從3.9%下降到3.8%。制造業數據也顯示,工廠產值經過一年多的萎縮之后開始增長。

    這些代表經濟活力的信號,使美聯儲降息的前景變得更加復雜,因為降息通常發生在經濟動蕩時期。有經濟學家質疑,在經濟健康增長時,為什么要降息?強勁的經濟還意味著,美聯儲的政策制定者們可以慢慢考慮在什么時候和以多大力度降低消費者和企業的借款成本。

    在上個月的新聞發布會上,鮑威爾表示,充分就業本身不會要求美聯儲推遲降息。他指出,雖然去年就業增長強勁,但通脹仍在下降,這主要歸功于可用勞工增多,其中大部分來自新增的移民。

    但其他政策制定者表示,最近的數據讓他們暫??紤]降息。達拉斯聯邦儲備銀行(Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)行長洛里·羅根上周表示,她認為現在考慮降息為時尚早。(財富中文網)

    翻譯:劉進龍

    審校:汪皓

    美國政府周三發布的一份報告稱,上個月,油價、房租和汽車保險導致美國的消費物價繼續大幅上漲,這可能讓美聯儲(Federal Reserve)暫??紤]今年何時和以多大幅度降息。

    2月至3月,剔除容易波動的食品和能源價格的消費物價上漲0.4%,這與前一個月的漲幅持平。與一年前相比,核心物價上漲了3.8%,與2月維持了相同的同比漲幅。美聯儲密切關注核心物價,因為核心物價為預測通脹走向提供了一個合理的指標。

    3月的通脹率連續三個月高于美聯儲2%的目標,這可能破壞美聯儲今年多次降息的前景。美聯儲官員最近明確表示,如果經濟健康,他們不會急于下調基準利率,盡管美聯儲之前預測今年會三次降息。

    3月份的數據可能也讓白宮失望,因為批評美國總統喬·拜登的共和黨人,可能將高物價歸咎于拜登,并以此破壞拜登的連任計劃。民調顯示,盡管就業市場健康,股市接近歷史新高,通脹也在穩步回落,但許多美國人仍批評拜登是造成高物價的罪魁禍首。

    美聯儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾強調,美聯儲的政策制定者們應該對通脹逐漸緩慢回落到2%的目標更有信心。鮑威爾的立場讓月度通脹報告引起了更多關注,它可能決定了美聯儲將在今年什么時候和以多大力度降低關鍵利率,甚至會決定美聯儲是否會降息。隨著時間的推移,降息將降低企業和消費者的借款成本,有助于刺激股市上漲。

    從2月到3月,整體消費物價上漲0.4%,與前一個月持平。與一年前相比,整體消費物價上漲3.5%,高于2月份的3.2%。

    疫情之后的通脹飆升提高了食品、汽油、房租和其他許多方面的成本。雖然通脹率較2022年6月9.1%的最高點有所回落,但平均物價依舊遠高于疫情之前的水平。

    今年早些時候,華爾街的交易商們預測,美聯儲將在2024年六次或七次下調關鍵利率。3月,美聯儲官員暗示,他們預測會三次降息。但1月和2月的通脹上漲,以及經濟增長依舊健康的信號,使多位美聯儲官員暗示今年降息次數將有所減少。

    上個月,雇主增加招聘,失業率從3.9%下降到3.8%。制造業數據也顯示,工廠產值經過一年多的萎縮之后開始增長。

    這些代表經濟活力的信號,使美聯儲降息的前景變得更加復雜,因為降息通常發生在經濟動蕩時期。有經濟學家質疑,在經濟健康增長時,為什么要降息?強勁的經濟還意味著,美聯儲的政策制定者們可以慢慢考慮在什么時候和以多大力度降低消費者和企業的借款成本。

    在上個月的新聞發布會上,鮑威爾表示,充分就業本身不會要求美聯儲推遲降息。他指出,雖然去年就業增長強勁,但通脹仍在下降,這主要歸功于可用勞工增多,其中大部分來自新增的移民。

    但其他政策制定者表示,最近的數據讓他們暫??紤]降息。達拉斯聯邦儲備銀行(Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)行長洛里·羅根上周表示,她認為現在考慮降息為時尚早。(財富中文網)

    翻譯:劉進龍

    審校:汪皓

    Consumer price increases remained high last month, boosted by gas, rents, and car insurance, the government said Wednesday in a report that will likely give pause to the Federal Reserve as it weighs when and by how much to cut interest rates this year.

    Prices outside the volatile food and energy categories rose 0.4% from February to March, the same accelerated pace as in the previous month. Measured from a year earlier, these core prices were up 3.8%, unchanged from the year-over-year rise in February. The Fed closely tracks core prices because they tend to provide a good read of where inflation is headed.

    The March figures, the third straight month of inflation readings well above the Fed’s 2% target, threaten to torpedo the prospect of multiple interest rate cuts this year. Fed officials have recently made clear that with the economy healthy, they’re in no rush to cut their benchmark rate despite their earlier projections that they would reduce rates three times this year.

    The figures will likely disappoint the White House as well, with Republican critics of President Joe Biden seeking to pin the blame for high prices on the president and use it as a cudgel to derail his re-election bid. Polls show that despite a healthy job market, a near-record-high stock market and the steady drop in inflation, many Americans blame Biden for high prices.

    Chair Jerome Powell has stressed that the Fed’s policymakers need more confidence that inflation is steadily slowing to the Fed’s 2% target. Powell’s stance has elevated the profile of the monthly inflation reports, which could determine when and by how much — or even whether — the Fed will reduce its key rate this year. Rate cuts would lead, over time, to lower borrowing costs for businesses and consumers and could also fuel a stock market rally.

    Overall consumer prices rose 0.4% from February to March, also the same as the previous month. Compared with 12 months earlier, prices rose 3.5%, up from a year-over-year figure of 3.2% in February.

    The inflation surge that followed the pandemic jacked up the costs of food, gas, rent and many other items. Though inflation has since plummeted from its peak of 9.1% in June 2022, average prices are still well above where they were before the pandemic.

    Early this year, Wall Street traders had projected that the Fed would cut its key rate up to six or seven times in 2024. In March, Fed officials signaled that they envisioned three rate cuts. But elevated inflation readings for January and February — along with signs that economic growth remains healthy — led several Fed officials to suggest that fewer rate cuts may occur this year.

    Last month, employers ramped up hiring, and the unemployment rate fell to a low 3.8% from 3.9%. A report on manufacturing also showed that factory output expanded after more than a year of contraction.

    Such signs of economic vigor have also complicated the prospect of Fed rate cuts, which typically occur when the economy stumbles. With growth healthy, some economists have asked, why cut rates at all? A strong economy also means that the Fed’s policymakers can take their time to consider when and by how much to reduce borrowing costs for consumers and businesses.

    At a news conference last month, Powell said that robust hiring, on its own, wouldn’t require the Fed to delay rate cuts. He noted that even though job gains were strong last year, inflation still tumbled thanks in large part to a surge of available workers, mostly from increased immigration.

    Some other policymakers, though, said that recent data had given them pause. Lorie Logan, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, said last week that she thought it was too soon to consider rate cuts.

    財富中文網所刊載內容之知識產權為財富媒體知識產權有限公司及/或相關權利人專屬所有或持有。未經許可,禁止進行轉載、摘編、復制及建立鏡像等任何使用。
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