歐洲瘋狂采購液化天然氣導致能源成本上漲,對全球經濟造成了嚴重破壞,現在可能導致現貨市場價格下跌。
由于歐洲大陸的儲氣設施已滿,但溫和的氣溫導致需求依舊不溫不火,因此大量液化天然氣船滯留在歐洲,等待交付這些珍貴的商品。
隨著價格下跌,停在海上的液化天然氣船選擇繼續??吭陉懮辖K端附近,希望在氣溫下降消耗現有儲備之后再卸貨。據BBC報道,有51艘液化天然氣船停泊在歐洲大陸的沿海水域。
凱羅斯(Kayrros)能源與大宗商品副總裁奧古斯汀·普拉特對英國廣播公司(BBC)表示:“我認為,這種情況已經持續了大約五到六周?!?/p>
歐盟國家嚴重依賴克里姆林宮支持的能源巨頭俄羅斯天然氣工業股份公司(Gazprom)。最近幾個月,這些國家一直在努力保障供應安全。以德國為例。最新可用數據顯示,截至8月的八個月,德國進口天然氣成本從去年同期的171億歐元,暴漲至495億歐元(約合490億美元)。
德國另外一種可能的解決辦法是滾動停電。幸運的是,德國以及歐洲其他國家的天然氣儲氣設施已滿,無法繼續儲藏更多天然氣。
美國的壓力也得到了緩解?
供應過剩和溫暖天氣導致的需求疲軟,意味著歐洲基準天然氣期貨對月前合約的交易折扣率,本月早些時候創歷史記錄。
甚至有一些合約的交易價格已經為負。周一,荷蘭天然氣交易中心(Dutch Title Transfer Facility,TTF)的下一個小時交割價格為負15歐元/兆瓦時。
這種狀況與2020年4月西德克薩斯中質油(WTI)市場的情況類似。當時由于俄克拉荷馬州庫欣的交割中心已滿,人們接受交割一桶石油實際上能獲得一筆費用。
這并不意味著危機已經解除,因為2023年期貨合約交易的溢價依舊達到歷史最高水平。但現貨市場價格下跌,可能給一直試圖抑制消費物價的美聯儲(Federal Reserve)帶來一些好消息。
據美國政府的官方數據顯示,天然氣是美國八月和九月通脹上漲最重要的因素。最近歐洲天然氣價格下跌,使美國亨利中心(Henry Hub)的期貨價格最近幾周幾乎下跌了一半。
天然氣對經濟的重要性毋庸置疑,而且這不只是因為天然氣被用于發電和家庭供暖。
天然氣還是生產氮肥以及乙烷基塑料等多種化合物的關鍵原料。就連使軟飲料和啤酒產生泡沫的碳化過程,也是天然氣消耗的副產品。(財富中文網)
譯者:劉進龍
審校:汪皓
歐洲瘋狂采購液化天然氣導致能源成本上漲,對全球經濟造成了嚴重破壞,現在可能導致現貨市場價格下跌。
由于歐洲大陸的儲氣設施已滿,但溫和的氣溫導致需求依舊不溫不火,因此大量液化天然氣船滯留在歐洲,等待交付這些珍貴的商品。
隨著價格下跌,停在海上的液化天然氣船選擇繼續??吭陉懮辖K端附近,希望在氣溫下降消耗現有儲備之后再卸貨。據BBC報道,有51艘液化天然氣船停泊在歐洲大陸的沿海水域。
凱羅斯(Kayrros)能源與大宗商品副總裁奧古斯汀·普拉特對英國廣播公司(BBC)表示:“我認為,這種情況已經持續了大約五到六周?!?/p>
歐盟國家嚴重依賴克里姆林宮支持的能源巨頭俄羅斯天然氣工業股份公司(Gazprom)。最近幾個月,這些國家一直在努力保障供應安全。以德國為例。最新可用數據顯示,截至8月的八個月,德國進口天然氣成本從去年同期的171億歐元,暴漲至495億歐元(約合490億美元)。
德國另外一種可能的解決辦法是滾動停電。幸運的是,德國以及歐洲其他國家的天然氣儲氣設施已滿,無法繼續儲藏更多天然氣。
美國的壓力也得到了緩解?
供應過剩和溫暖天氣導致的需求疲軟,意味著歐洲基準天然氣期貨對月前合約的交易折扣率,本月早些時候創歷史記錄。
甚至有一些合約的交易價格已經為負。周一,荷蘭天然氣交易中心(Dutch Title Transfer Facility,TTF)的下一個小時交割價格為負15歐元/兆瓦時。
這種狀況與2020年4月西德克薩斯中質油(WTI)市場的情況類似。當時由于俄克拉荷馬州庫欣的交割中心已滿,人們接受交割一桶石油實際上能獲得一筆費用。
這并不意味著危機已經解除,因為2023年期貨合約交易的溢價依舊達到歷史最高水平。但現貨市場價格下跌,可能給一直試圖抑制消費物價的美聯儲(Federal Reserve)帶來一些好消息。
據美國政府的官方數據顯示,天然氣是美國八月和九月通脹上漲最重要的因素。最近歐洲天然氣價格下跌,使美國亨利中心(Henry Hub)的期貨價格最近幾周幾乎下跌了一半。
天然氣對經濟的重要性毋庸置疑,而且這不只是因為天然氣被用于發電和家庭供暖。
天然氣還是生產氮肥以及乙烷基塑料等多種化合物的關鍵原料。就連使軟飲料和啤酒產生泡沫的碳化過程,也是天然氣消耗的副產品。(財富中文網)
譯者:劉進龍
審校:汪皓
Europe’s mad dash for liquefied natural gas (LNG) that drove up the cost of energy and wreaked havoc on the global economy could now cause a crash in spot market prices.
LNG ships are piling up around Europe, waiting to deliver their precious cargo as storage caverns across the continent are full to the brim and demand remains tepid owing to mild temperatures.
With prices plummeting, floating LNG barges have opted to remain parked near onshore terminals hoping to unload once colder temperatures deplete current reserves. According to the BBC, 51 ships have collected around the continent’s coastal waters.
“It’s built up for about, I would say, five to six weeks,” Augustin Prate, vice president of energy and commodity markets at Kayrros, told the broadcaster.
EU countries that were heavily dependent on Kremlin-backed energy giant Gazprom rushed to secure a supply in recent months. Germany for example saw its costs for importing natural gas into the country soar to €49.5 billion ($49 billion) in the eight months through August, the latest available data, from just €17.1 billion in the same period the previous year.
The alternative might have meant rolling blackouts. Fortunately the country cannot hoard any more gas as its caverns are bursting at the seams along with those in the rest of Europe.
Relief for the U.S. too?
An oversupply matched with weak demand owing to warm weather has meant the discount at which day-ahead European benchmark gas futures trade to month-ahead contracts reached their largest ever on record earlier this month.
There have even been instances when some contracts traded at a negative price. Next-hour delivery at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) went for a minus €15 per megawatt-hour on Monday.
The situation is not unlike that from April 2020 in the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) market, where people were effectively being paid to accept a barrel of oil because the delivery hub in Cushing, Okla., was full.
This doesn’t mean the crisis is over, as 2023 futures contracts still trade at hefty premiums to historical levels. But a crash in the spot market should provide some good news for the Federal Reserve, which is attempting to cool off consumer prices.
Natural gas was the number one driver of inflation in the United States in August and September, according to official government data. The recent collapse in prices in Europe has helped prices for U.S. Henry Hub futures nearly halve in recent weeks.
The importance of natural gas to the economy cannot be overestimated, and not just because it is used to generate electricity and heat homes.
It is a key feedstock needed for nitrogen-rich crop fertilizers as well as numerous chemicals such as ethane-based plastics. Even the carbonation that creates the fizz for soft drinks and beer is a by-product of natural gas consumption.