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    得到科技和金融巨頭加持,這位共和黨州長準備挑戰特朗普

    Anne Sraders
    2022-09-19

    美國佛羅里達州的州長羅恩·德桑蒂斯獲得了一些日益強大的科技和金融界人士的支持,其中一些人甚至押注他能夠在2024年入主白宮。

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    商界對話中,美國佛羅里達州的州長羅恩·德桑蒂斯正引領趨勢。圖片來源:PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY FORTUNE; ORIGINAL PHOTOS BY JABIN BOTSFORD—THE WASHINGTON POST/GETTY IMAGES; GETTY IMAGES

    7月下旬的一天下午,美國猶他州帕克城瑞吉酒店(St. Regis hotel)充滿享樂氣息的餐廳里,卡森·喬根森正在與一群捐贈者和商界領袖翹首等待貴賓到來。

    近幾年冉冉升起的政治明星,美國佛羅里達州的州長、共和黨人羅恩·德桑蒂斯準時出現,高效率拍完照片,隨后在酒店的“霧凇”餐廳里伴著沙拉雞肉午餐向大家致辭,眾人身后是雄偉的落基山脈(Rocky Mountains)。這是今年7月下旬該組織在猶他州為德桑蒂斯舉辦的第二場籌款活動,目標是2022年連任州長。猶他州共和黨主席喬根森回憶說,在場各位是一些“輕裝簡從”的“上流社會捐贈者”,因為據他估計,“這場籌款活動相當昂貴”(有報道稱午餐門票一張5,000美元)。喬根森回憶道,德桑蒂斯講話約半小時,談到了一些諸如對迪士尼(Disney)等所謂“覺醒”公司發起反擊的話題,以及新冠疫情期間他如何開放佛羅里達州的經濟。

    正因為德桑蒂斯毫不掩飾地采取了親商業反政治的正確立場,加上美國前總統唐納德·特朗普好斗樹敵,他在佛羅里達州獲得了一些日益強大的科技和金融界人士的欣賞,其中一些人甚至押注2024年他能夠勇往無前入主白宮。

    近年來,德桑蒂斯的身后確實聚集了一批富有的捐贈者:支持者包括對沖基金Citadel創始人及首席執行官肯·格里芬、對沖基金經理保羅·都鐸·瓊斯、包裝材料大亨理查德·烏伊萊因、家得寶(Home Depot)聯合創始人及前首席執行官伯尼·馬庫斯等億萬富翁。過去兩年,他們都通過政治行動委員會“羅恩·德桑蒂斯的朋友”(Friends of Ron DeSantis)慷慨解囊。最新的大手筆捐贈者是酒店業巨頭及航天企業家羅伯特·比奇洛,7月他剛剛捐贈了1,000萬美元。根據追蹤政治捐款的組織OpenSecrets統計,截至8月19日,德桑蒂斯共籌集到1.72億美元。喬根森回憶說,盡管猶他州的籌款活動完全是為了支持德桑蒂斯在佛州競選連任,與會者還是討論了2024年他競選總統的潛力?!八芏嗍虑樽龅煤軐??!?月Citadel的首席執行官格里芬在米爾肯研究院全球論壇(Milken Institute Global Conference)上談到德桑蒂斯時表示。他還指出:“毫無疑問,他是當前共和黨初選中的領頭羊?!备窭锓乙恢痹诘律5偎咕栀浾咧信琶傲?,2021年就捐款了500萬美元。

    盡管德桑蒂斯尚未宣布競選總統,但他已經成為宣稱要參加2024年大選的特朗普的主要挑戰者。最新民調顯示,盡管德桑蒂斯在假想競選中輕松擊敗了其他人,但特朗普領先德桑蒂斯的優勢仍然相當大(8月19日至21日之間最新的Politico/Morning民調顯示,特朗普領先排名第二位的德桑蒂斯39個百分點)。

    盡管德桑蒂斯本人因為與媒體交鋒,新冠疫情期間就變性運動員和厭惡口罩等問題發表觀點鮮明且富爭議的意見而名聲大噪,但談及2024年他會不會參選以及屆時會不會支持他,德桑蒂斯的忠實支持者基本保持沉默?!敦敻弧冯s志希望就德桑蒂斯采訪十幾位富豪(老實說,經常是守口如瓶的億萬富翁),對方要么不回復置評請求,要么拒絕公開評論?!敦敻弧冯s志多次請求采訪德桑蒂斯,其競選團隊也未回應。

    德桑蒂斯還需要一段時間才可以宣布是否參與2024年大選,當前仍然重點關注2022年佛州州長競選。至于2024年大選,尚無候選人明確表示參選,還有很多未知之數。但很明顯的一點是,無論德桑蒂斯參選與否,由于這位佛州州長對爭議問題立場偏激,經常有些特朗普風格,已經贏得不少金融和科技大佬強烈支持,而且不僅在佛州,在美國其他地區也一樣。通過行動和言辭,他拉攏了同樣認為ESG投資是笑話的商業領袖;認為公司不應該關心社會問題的人,德桑蒂斯稱這種做法叫反“覺醒”;還有認同經濟應該作為頭等大事考慮,哪怕做不到也要優先考慮的人。

    無論2024年情況如何,德桑蒂斯都對大選之前的對話發揮著不可忽視的影響。

    邁阿密商界的支持

    盡管德桑蒂斯傾向挑戰當權者,其實他也出身經典的常春藤(Ivy League)名校。他童年大部分時間在佛州達尼丁,參加少年棒球聯賽,之后去耶魯大學(Yale University)讀書,擔任大學棒球隊隊長。本科畢業后,他繼續在哈佛法學院(Harvard Law School)深造。

    參政之前,德桑蒂斯曾經在美國海軍擔任法律顧問,現役完成后擔任聯邦檢察官。早年政治生涯中,他曾經在2013年至2018年期間擔任佛州議員。2018年前總統特朗普在選舉中支持他擔任州長時,他在全美的知名度進一步提高。據報道,特朗普之所以支持德桑蒂斯,是因為看到他在??怂剐侣劊‵ox News)中的發言。

    不過德桑蒂斯真正崛起是在新冠疫情期間。硅谷和華爾街移民尋找零所得稅和封鎖期間能夠保持“開放”的州,紛紛涌入佛羅里達。他迎合了公眾對疫情期間規避公共衛生指南和相關規定的期望,疫情爆發初期努力維持企業經營。在商界,他針對疫情頗受爭議的立場一直是賣點,一些與《財富》雜志談話的人都認為他特別親商業。

    最近,德桑蒂斯一些爭議性政策受到了人們審視,例如從幼兒園到三年級禁止公立學校教師與學生討論性取向或性別認同的法案很受爭議,反對者稱之為“不要說同性戀”(Don’t Say Gay)法案。他在墮胎問題上立場也更加強硬,最近暫停了坦帕地區一名州檢察官的職務,羅訴韋德案(Roe v. Wade)被推翻后該檢察官承諾不執行本州的新墮胎法。

    過去幾年一些搬到佛州的商業和創業人士很贊賞德桑蒂斯的執政方式。Bustle Digital Group的創始人及首席執行官布萊恩·戈德堡就是其中之一,該集團旗下包括Bustle、W雜志(W Magazine)和Gawker等媒體網站。他認為,德桑蒂斯優先考慮企業維持經營而不是執行公共衛生任務,所以很有吸引力:“他把經濟放在首位?!弊罱甑卤じ嬖V《財富》雜志。他認為,經歷了過去幾年,“不僅是佛羅里達州,全美人民都相當認可德桑蒂斯當州長的表現?!敝劣?022年以后,“面臨的問題不一樣?!备甑卤ふf。(根據德桑蒂斯的政治行動委員會的記錄,7月戈德堡為其競選連任捐贈了1,000美元。)

    德桑蒂斯反對“企業覺醒”也獲得了戈德堡之類企業家的共鳴:“我認為企業應該遠離政治。這是迪士尼慘敗的教訓:首席執行官不是民選官員?!彼嬖V《財富》雜志。正如戈德堡所說,近年來,不少首席執行官就各種“社會和政治問題”向員工發送新聞稿和內部通訊?!斑@是錯誤的。很糟糕。首席執行官只有一份工作,就是有效地管理公司?!彼f。(當被問及在影響員工的問題上采取何種立場時,比如墮胎和推翻羅訴韋德案,戈德堡表示并不針對“某個特定問題”。)

    其他人,例如Citadel的首席執行官格里芬,認為德桑蒂斯跟迪士尼斗爭方面有些過分。迪士尼批評了德桑蒂斯的《家長教育權利法》(Parental Rights in Education law)或“不要說同性戀”法案后,德桑蒂斯提出解除迪士尼作為特別稅區的地位,格里芬認為此舉更像是“報復”。

    德桑蒂斯針對科技巨頭的一些立場,比如攻擊所謂的社交媒體審查,并沒有影響佛州成為硅谷和華爾街外派人士尋找對商業更友好州時的熱門選擇。過去幾年,從金融巨頭Citadel到Elliott Management Corp.等大公司都將總部遷至佛州,還有聲名狼藉的投資者凱西·伍德掌管的資產管理公司ARK Investment Management(伍德一直是特朗普的支持者,但拒絕就下屆選舉候選人的看法向《財富》雜志發表評論)。

    然而,德桑蒂斯也將矛頭對準了投資管理行業,特別是嘲笑著重考慮環境、社會和治理因素的ESG投資,要求州管理委員會(State Board of Administration)的基金經理在投資時不許考慮ESG。不過對長期風險投資者,也是貝寶幫(PayPal mafia)的基思·拉布瓦來說,此舉并未讓他反感。拉布瓦如今在邁阿密的風投公司Founders Fund?!癊SG投資就是欺詐?!彼麑Α敦敻弧冯s志表示,“所以如果有政客想傳達我們的觀點,我們肯定不會反對?!?/p>

    佛州州長“營造的氛圍是,這是創業的好地方。這是人們感到興奮的主要原因?!蔽挥谶~阿密的早期投資和孵化公司帕累托控股(Pareto Holdings)的執行合伙人愛德華·蘭多告訴《財富》雜志(蘭多住在佛州,但因為他是法國公民,所以沒有資格在美國投票)。蘭多稱,他的圈子里有人在談論德桑蒂斯,而且他認為,“如果提出德桑迪斯是一位不錯的候選人,爭議比起支持特朗普就要小得多”。

    坦率的保守派風險投資人拉布瓦和其他人一樣,還在努力對沖風險:“顯然,所有人都在等著看誰參加競選。確切得知候選人是誰之前不必做決定?!彼f。不過拉布瓦表示,不管是德桑蒂斯,還是佛州參議員馬爾科·魯比奧或里克·斯科特或邁阿密市的市長弗朗西斯·蘇亞雷斯,如果其中有人可以成為下一任總統,都會讓人“興奮”,他認為這幾位“都會得到佛州科技界和商界領袖的廣泛支持?!狈鹬葜?,他特別提出南卡羅來納州前州長尼基·黑利和阿肯色州參議湯姆·科頓是“頂尖候選人”,但不確定這幾人會不會參選。他宣稱:“我認識的很多商界領袖都不會支持特朗普?!?/p>

    拉布瓦最關注的政策包括中美競爭;小企業和教育從疫情復蘇;還有“佛州作為低稅和監管寬松之地”促進商業和“成功就業”。他認為,這些問題都是德桑蒂斯能夠用來區分自己和他人的“問題組合”。但拉布瓦也承認,在他的風投和創業圈里“不談論這些。太忙了?!?/p>

    除了佛羅里達本地人,“硅谷和科技界對特朗普評價不高。未來估計不會有變化,邁阿密科技圈想必也不會更熱情?!盉ustle Digital Group的戈德堡說。他表示,科技和金融業向佛州大量轉移的結果是,不少新來者“兩黨皆考慮”,他相信大多數佛州人和科技界人士會支持德桑蒂斯。戈德堡認為,墮胎權等問題對科技公司很重要,德桑蒂斯可能必須謹慎行事:“成千上萬人前往佛州開始新生活,他們可不希望權利減少?!彼ㄗh。

    但很明顯,“管理一個州是一回事,管理一國是另一回事?!惫埠忘h長期籌款人和律師埃里克·萊文指出?!昂芏嗳硕枷攵嗔私庖恍┧诮洕矫娴脑妇??!?/p>

    展望2024年

    盡管德桑蒂斯已經收獲大量捐贈者的支持,他對2024年是否參選的謠言一直保持沉默,可能原因是今年秋天即將舉行的中期選舉,畢竟共和黨人希望控制參議院和眾議院。共和黨籌款人兼律師萊文認為:“很難知道他們不表態是不是因為不想反對特朗普,還是像我一樣,只想繼續關注中期選舉?!焙芏鄨蟮里@示,共和黨成員確實擔心11月之前特朗普宣布參加2024年大選,也有報道稱特朗普正考慮中期選舉之后再宣布。

    不管捐贈者是否已經明確表態,從當前思潮、媒體關注和民調來看,德桑蒂斯已經成為與特朗普角逐下屆大選的關鍵候選人?!拔艺J為,(2024年)如果德桑蒂斯的名字出現,部分原因就是大家都聽說過他?!比R文告訴《財富》雜志?!斑@個月已經有點感覺,因為現在是認名字階段?!彼硎??!八鲜磕岫窢?;跟白宮首席醫療顧問安東尼·福奇斗爭;還在跟加州州長加文·紐瑟姆斗爭?!?/p>

    但即便面對特朗普在全球聲名狼藉,萊文還是認為媒體關注不一定可以削弱其勝算?!翱傆幸恍╊I先者——比如希拉里·克林頓,2008年她怎么了?或者2016年杰布·布什怎么了?當年有誰知名度和收入比杰布·布什高?”他爭辯道?!按筮x剛開始知名度如何,跟最后人們把票投給誰,中間是有區別的?!?/p>

    當然,這還不是兩人競選:萊文說,關于2024年大選已經聽到人們談論阿肯色州參議員科頓、前國務卿邁克·蓬佩奧、南卡羅來納州前州長黑利、前副總統邁克·彭斯和南卡羅萊納州參議員蒂姆·斯科特等(到目前為止,幾人的支持率遠低于德桑蒂斯)。

    即便特朗普因為1月6日國會暴亂而受到調查,以及美國聯邦調查局(FBI)為調查涉嫌不當處理機密文件突擊搜查海湖莊園,特朗普在共和黨中的支持率仍然不可否認,雖然根據一些民調,認為他應該再次參選的共和黨人比例有所下降。

    長期以來,特朗普的白宮前傳播總監、SkyBridge Capital的創始人安東尼·斯卡拉穆奇一直直言批評德桑蒂斯。6月他告訴《財富》雜志,德桑蒂斯沒有機會擊敗特朗普,特朗普最終會“打敗德桑蒂斯”。他認為,特朗普“非常善妒”,“會在政治上明嘲暗諷地詆毀德桑蒂斯?!彼箍ɡ缕嫜a充說,雖然特朗普“可能無法獲得共和黨提名……在失敗的過程中,他會毀掉德桑蒂斯?!?/p>

    猶他州共和黨主席喬根森等人打賭,“如果特朗普參選,就仍然會得到基層群眾支持?!彼J為“政治”人群眼中德桑蒂斯“除了刻薄推文,就是另一個特朗普”,或者正如《紐約客》(New Yorker)最近一篇文章中指出,“智慧版特朗普”。但他認為特朗普“仍然獲得民眾擁戴?!笔聦嵣?,特朗普的支持者吹噓他基層支持廣泛。截至7月底,特朗普的“拯救美國政治行動委員會”(Save America PAC,據報道,聯邦陪審團正在就1月6日暴亂對其調查)擁有現金約9,900萬美元(不過有報道稱,這筆錢不能用于2024年大選,而且特朗普等待宣布2024年參選之際,已經面臨違反競選法募集資金的指控)。

    “很多人坐山觀虎斗,因為有些人想支持特朗普,但又有點懷疑?!眴谈治龅?。也“有人想支持德桑蒂斯,但不敢出頭,因為這么做很危險?!?/p>

    今夏猶他州籌款活動上,與會者觥籌交錯間,關于下屆大選的話題呼之欲出。但約根森清楚記得,即使在德桑蒂斯自己的籌款活動上,談起2024年會對誰感興趣時還是有人提到了另一個名字:特朗普。(財富中文網)

    譯者:夏林

    7月下旬的一天下午,美國猶他州帕克城瑞吉酒店(St. Regis hotel)充滿享樂氣息的餐廳里,卡森·喬根森正在與一群捐贈者和商界領袖翹首等待貴賓到來。

    近幾年冉冉升起的政治明星,美國佛羅里達州的州長、共和黨人羅恩·德桑蒂斯準時出現,高效率拍完照片,隨后在酒店的“霧凇”餐廳里伴著沙拉雞肉午餐向大家致辭,眾人身后是雄偉的落基山脈(Rocky Mountains)。這是今年7月下旬該組織在猶他州為德桑蒂斯舉辦的第二場籌款活動,目標是2022年連任州長。猶他州共和黨主席喬根森回憶說,在場各位是一些“輕裝簡從”的“上流社會捐贈者”,因為據他估計,“這場籌款活動相當昂貴”(有報道稱午餐門票一張5,000美元)。喬根森回憶道,德桑蒂斯講話約半小時,談到了一些諸如對迪士尼(Disney)等所謂“覺醒”公司發起反擊的話題,以及新冠疫情期間他如何開放佛羅里達州的經濟。

    正因為德桑蒂斯毫不掩飾地采取了親商業反政治的正確立場,加上美國前總統唐納德·特朗普好斗樹敵,他在佛羅里達州獲得了一些日益強大的科技和金融界人士的欣賞,其中一些人甚至押注2024年他能夠勇往無前入主白宮。

    近年來,德桑蒂斯的身后確實聚集了一批富有的捐贈者:支持者包括對沖基金Citadel創始人及首席執行官肯·格里芬、對沖基金經理保羅·都鐸·瓊斯、包裝材料大亨理查德·烏伊萊因、家得寶(Home Depot)聯合創始人及前首席執行官伯尼·馬庫斯等億萬富翁。過去兩年,他們都通過政治行動委員會“羅恩·德桑蒂斯的朋友”(Friends of Ron DeSantis)慷慨解囊。最新的大手筆捐贈者是酒店業巨頭及航天企業家羅伯特·比奇洛,7月他剛剛捐贈了1,000萬美元。根據追蹤政治捐款的組織OpenSecrets統計,截至8月19日,德桑蒂斯共籌集到1.72億美元。喬根森回憶說,盡管猶他州的籌款活動完全是為了支持德桑蒂斯在佛州競選連任,與會者還是討論了2024年他競選總統的潛力?!八芏嗍虑樽龅煤軐??!?月Citadel的首席執行官格里芬在米爾肯研究院全球論壇(Milken Institute Global Conference)上談到德桑蒂斯時表示。他還指出:“毫無疑問,他是當前共和黨初選中的領頭羊?!备窭锓乙恢痹诘律5偎咕栀浾咧信琶傲?,2021年就捐款了500萬美元。

    盡管德桑蒂斯尚未宣布競選總統,但他已經成為宣稱要參加2024年大選的特朗普的主要挑戰者。最新民調顯示,盡管德桑蒂斯在假想競選中輕松擊敗了其他人,但特朗普領先德桑蒂斯的優勢仍然相當大(8月19日至21日之間最新的Politico/Morning民調顯示,特朗普領先排名第二位的德桑蒂斯39個百分點)。

    盡管德桑蒂斯本人因為與媒體交鋒,新冠疫情期間就變性運動員和厭惡口罩等問題發表觀點鮮明且富爭議的意見而名聲大噪,但談及2024年他會不會參選以及屆時會不會支持他,德桑蒂斯的忠實支持者基本保持沉默?!敦敻弧冯s志希望就德桑蒂斯采訪十幾位富豪(老實說,經常是守口如瓶的億萬富翁),對方要么不回復置評請求,要么拒絕公開評論?!敦敻弧冯s志多次請求采訪德桑蒂斯,其競選團隊也未回應。

    德桑蒂斯還需要一段時間才可以宣布是否參與2024年大選,當前仍然重點關注2022年佛州州長競選。至于2024年大選,尚無候選人明確表示參選,還有很多未知之數。但很明顯的一點是,無論德桑蒂斯參選與否,由于這位佛州州長對爭議問題立場偏激,經常有些特朗普風格,已經贏得不少金融和科技大佬強烈支持,而且不僅在佛州,在美國其他地區也一樣。通過行動和言辭,他拉攏了同樣認為ESG投資是笑話的商業領袖;認為公司不應該關心社會問題的人,德桑蒂斯稱這種做法叫反“覺醒”;還有認同經濟應該作為頭等大事考慮,哪怕做不到也要優先考慮的人。

    無論2024年情況如何,德桑蒂斯都對大選之前的對話發揮著不可忽視的影響。

    邁阿密商界的支持

    盡管德桑蒂斯傾向挑戰當權者,其實他也出身經典的常春藤(Ivy League)名校。他童年大部分時間在佛州達尼丁,參加少年棒球聯賽,之后去耶魯大學(Yale University)讀書,擔任大學棒球隊隊長。本科畢業后,他繼續在哈佛法學院(Harvard Law School)深造。

    參政之前,德桑蒂斯曾經在美國海軍擔任法律顧問,現役完成后擔任聯邦檢察官。早年政治生涯中,他曾經在2013年至2018年期間擔任佛州議員。2018年前總統特朗普在選舉中支持他擔任州長時,他在全美的知名度進一步提高。據報道,特朗普之所以支持德桑蒂斯,是因為看到他在??怂剐侣劊‵ox News)中的發言。

    不過德桑蒂斯真正崛起是在新冠疫情期間。硅谷和華爾街移民尋找零所得稅和封鎖期間能夠保持“開放”的州,紛紛涌入佛羅里達。他迎合了公眾對疫情期間規避公共衛生指南和相關規定的期望,疫情爆發初期努力維持企業經營。在商界,他針對疫情頗受爭議的立場一直是賣點,一些與《財富》雜志談話的人都認為他特別親商業。

    最近,德桑蒂斯一些爭議性政策受到了人們審視,例如從幼兒園到三年級禁止公立學校教師與學生討論性取向或性別認同的法案很受爭議,反對者稱之為“不要說同性戀”(Don’t Say Gay)法案。他在墮胎問題上立場也更加強硬,最近暫停了坦帕地區一名州檢察官的職務,羅訴韋德案(Roe v. Wade)被推翻后該檢察官承諾不執行本州的新墮胎法。

    過去幾年一些搬到佛州的商業和創業人士很贊賞德桑蒂斯的執政方式。Bustle Digital Group的創始人及首席執行官布萊恩·戈德堡就是其中之一,該集團旗下包括Bustle、W雜志(W Magazine)和Gawker等媒體網站。他認為,德桑蒂斯優先考慮企業維持經營而不是執行公共衛生任務,所以很有吸引力:“他把經濟放在首位?!弊罱甑卤じ嬖V《財富》雜志。他認為,經歷了過去幾年,“不僅是佛羅里達州,全美人民都相當認可德桑蒂斯當州長的表現?!敝劣?022年以后,“面臨的問題不一樣?!备甑卤ふf。(根據德桑蒂斯的政治行動委員會的記錄,7月戈德堡為其競選連任捐贈了1,000美元。)

    德桑蒂斯反對“企業覺醒”也獲得了戈德堡之類企業家的共鳴:“我認為企業應該遠離政治。這是迪士尼慘敗的教訓:首席執行官不是民選官員?!彼嬖V《財富》雜志。正如戈德堡所說,近年來,不少首席執行官就各種“社會和政治問題”向員工發送新聞稿和內部通訊?!斑@是錯誤的。很糟糕。首席執行官只有一份工作,就是有效地管理公司?!彼f。(當被問及在影響員工的問題上采取何種立場時,比如墮胎和推翻羅訴韋德案,戈德堡表示并不針對“某個特定問題”。)

    其他人,例如Citadel的首席執行官格里芬,認為德桑蒂斯跟迪士尼斗爭方面有些過分。迪士尼批評了德桑蒂斯的《家長教育權利法》(Parental Rights in Education law)或“不要說同性戀”法案后,德桑蒂斯提出解除迪士尼作為特別稅區的地位,格里芬認為此舉更像是“報復”。

    德桑蒂斯針對科技巨頭的一些立場,比如攻擊所謂的社交媒體審查,并沒有影響佛州成為硅谷和華爾街外派人士尋找對商業更友好州時的熱門選擇。過去幾年,從金融巨頭Citadel到Elliott Management Corp.等大公司都將總部遷至佛州,還有聲名狼藉的投資者凱西·伍德掌管的資產管理公司ARK Investment Management(伍德一直是特朗普的支持者,但拒絕就下屆選舉候選人的看法向《財富》雜志發表評論)。

    然而,德桑蒂斯也將矛頭對準了投資管理行業,特別是嘲笑著重考慮環境、社會和治理因素的ESG投資,要求州管理委員會(State Board of Administration)的基金經理在投資時不許考慮ESG。不過對長期風險投資者,也是貝寶幫(PayPal mafia)的基思·拉布瓦來說,此舉并未讓他反感。拉布瓦如今在邁阿密的風投公司Founders Fund?!癊SG投資就是欺詐?!彼麑Α敦敻弧冯s志表示,“所以如果有政客想傳達我們的觀點,我們肯定不會反對?!?/p>

    佛州州長“營造的氛圍是,這是創業的好地方。這是人們感到興奮的主要原因?!蔽挥谶~阿密的早期投資和孵化公司帕累托控股(Pareto Holdings)的執行合伙人愛德華·蘭多告訴《財富》雜志(蘭多住在佛州,但因為他是法國公民,所以沒有資格在美國投票)。蘭多稱,他的圈子里有人在談論德桑蒂斯,而且他認為,“如果提出德桑迪斯是一位不錯的候選人,爭議比起支持特朗普就要小得多”。

    坦率的保守派風險投資人拉布瓦和其他人一樣,還在努力對沖風險:“顯然,所有人都在等著看誰參加競選。確切得知候選人是誰之前不必做決定?!彼f。不過拉布瓦表示,不管是德桑蒂斯,還是佛州參議員馬爾科·魯比奧或里克·斯科特或邁阿密市的市長弗朗西斯·蘇亞雷斯,如果其中有人可以成為下一任總統,都會讓人“興奮”,他認為這幾位“都會得到佛州科技界和商界領袖的廣泛支持?!狈鹬葜?,他特別提出南卡羅來納州前州長尼基·黑利和阿肯色州參議湯姆·科頓是“頂尖候選人”,但不確定這幾人會不會參選。他宣稱:“我認識的很多商界領袖都不會支持特朗普?!?/p>

    拉布瓦最關注的政策包括中美競爭;小企業和教育從疫情復蘇;還有“佛州作為低稅和監管寬松之地”促進商業和“成功就業”。他認為,這些問題都是德桑蒂斯能夠用來區分自己和他人的“問題組合”。但拉布瓦也承認,在他的風投和創業圈里“不談論這些。太忙了?!?/p>

    除了佛羅里達本地人,“硅谷和科技界對特朗普評價不高。未來估計不會有變化,邁阿密科技圈想必也不會更熱情?!盉ustle Digital Group的戈德堡說。他表示,科技和金融業向佛州大量轉移的結果是,不少新來者“兩黨皆考慮”,他相信大多數佛州人和科技界人士會支持德桑蒂斯。戈德堡認為,墮胎權等問題對科技公司很重要,德桑蒂斯可能必須謹慎行事:“成千上萬人前往佛州開始新生活,他們可不希望權利減少?!彼ㄗh。

    但很明顯,“管理一個州是一回事,管理一國是另一回事?!惫埠忘h長期籌款人和律師埃里克·萊文指出?!昂芏嗳硕枷攵嗔私庖恍┧诮洕矫娴脑妇??!?/p>

    展望2024年

    盡管德桑蒂斯已經收獲大量捐贈者的支持,他對2024年是否參選的謠言一直保持沉默,可能原因是今年秋天即將舉行的中期選舉,畢竟共和黨人希望控制參議院和眾議院。共和黨籌款人兼律師萊文認為:“很難知道他們不表態是不是因為不想反對特朗普,還是像我一樣,只想繼續關注中期選舉?!焙芏鄨蟮里@示,共和黨成員確實擔心11月之前特朗普宣布參加2024年大選,也有報道稱特朗普正考慮中期選舉之后再宣布。

    不管捐贈者是否已經明確表態,從當前思潮、媒體關注和民調來看,德桑蒂斯已經成為與特朗普角逐下屆大選的關鍵候選人?!拔艺J為,(2024年)如果德桑蒂斯的名字出現,部分原因就是大家都聽說過他?!比R文告訴《財富》雜志?!斑@個月已經有點感覺,因為現在是認名字階段?!彼硎??!八鲜磕岫窢?;跟白宮首席醫療顧問安東尼·福奇斗爭;還在跟加州州長加文·紐瑟姆斗爭?!?/p>

    但即便面對特朗普在全球聲名狼藉,萊文還是認為媒體關注不一定可以削弱其勝算?!翱傆幸恍╊I先者——比如希拉里·克林頓,2008年她怎么了?或者2016年杰布·布什怎么了?當年有誰知名度和收入比杰布·布什高?”他爭辯道?!按筮x剛開始知名度如何,跟最后人們把票投給誰,中間是有區別的?!?/p>

    當然,這還不是兩人競選:萊文說,關于2024年大選已經聽到人們談論阿肯色州參議員科頓、前國務卿邁克·蓬佩奧、南卡羅來納州前州長黑利、前副總統邁克·彭斯和南卡羅萊納州參議員蒂姆·斯科特等(到目前為止,幾人的支持率遠低于德桑蒂斯)。

    即便特朗普因為1月6日國會暴亂而受到調查,以及美國聯邦調查局(FBI)為調查涉嫌不當處理機密文件突擊搜查海湖莊園,特朗普在共和黨中的支持率仍然不可否認,雖然根據一些民調,認為他應該再次參選的共和黨人比例有所下降。

    長期以來,特朗普的白宮前傳播總監、SkyBridge Capital的創始人安東尼·斯卡拉穆奇一直直言批評德桑蒂斯。6月他告訴《財富》雜志,德桑蒂斯沒有機會擊敗特朗普,特朗普最終會“打敗德桑蒂斯”。他認為,特朗普“非常善妒”,“會在政治上明嘲暗諷地詆毀德桑蒂斯?!彼箍ɡ缕嫜a充說,雖然特朗普“可能無法獲得共和黨提名……在失敗的過程中,他會毀掉德桑蒂斯?!?/p>

    猶他州共和黨主席喬根森等人打賭,“如果特朗普參選,就仍然會得到基層群眾支持?!彼J為“政治”人群眼中德桑蒂斯“除了刻薄推文,就是另一個特朗普”,或者正如《紐約客》(New Yorker)最近一篇文章中指出,“智慧版特朗普”。但他認為特朗普“仍然獲得民眾擁戴?!笔聦嵣?,特朗普的支持者吹噓他基層支持廣泛。截至7月底,特朗普的“拯救美國政治行動委員會”(Save America PAC,據報道,聯邦陪審團正在就1月6日暴亂對其調查)擁有現金約9,900萬美元(不過有報道稱,這筆錢不能用于2024年大選,而且特朗普等待宣布2024年參選之際,已經面臨違反競選法募集資金的指控)。

    “很多人坐山觀虎斗,因為有些人想支持特朗普,但又有點懷疑?!眴谈治龅?。也“有人想支持德桑蒂斯,但不敢出頭,因為這么做很危險?!?/p>

    今夏猶他州籌款活動上,與會者觥籌交錯間,關于下屆大選的話題呼之欲出。但約根森清楚記得,即使在德桑蒂斯自己的籌款活動上,談起2024年會對誰感興趣時還是有人提到了另一個名字:特朗普。(財富中文網)

    譯者:夏林

    It was early afternoon in late July, and Carson Jorgensen was waiting in a decadent restaurant at the St. Regis hotel in Park City, Utah, along with a group of donors and business leaders, for the guest of honor to arrive.

    Right on time, Ron DeSantis, the Republican governor of Florida whose star has risen rapidly over the past couple of years, appeared and efficiently worked through a photo line, before addressing the room over salads and chicken at lunch in the hotel’s RIME restaurant. With the majestic Rocky Mountains in the background, the group had assembled for the second of a pair of fundraising events for DeSantis in Utah in late July, raising money for his 2022 gubernatorial reelection campaign. Jorgensen, who serves as chair of the Utah Republican Party, recounts that the event was composed of some “upper-class donors” in “dressed-up casual” attire, as it was a “more expensive fundraiser,” he estimated (tickets to the lunch event reportedly went for $5,000 a pop). DeSantis spoke for about half an hour, Jorgensen remembers, touching on topics such as pushing back against supposedly “woke” corporations such as Disney, and how he opened up the economy in Florida during the pandemic.

    It’s DeSantis’s unabashed pro-business, anti–political correctness stances, combined with just enough of former President Donald Trump’s pugnaciousness, that have earned him admiration among some of Florida’s increasingly powerful tech and finance set, some of whom wager he could ride the wave all the way to the White House in 2024.

    The governor has amassed a wealthy crowd of donors in recent years: His supporters include billionaires like hedge fund Citadel founder and CEO Ken Griffin, hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones, packaging materials tycoon Richard Uihlein, and Home Depot cofounder and former CEO Bernie Marcus, who have all donated to DeSantis’s political action committee Friends of Ron DeSantis within the past two years. DeSantis’s new largest donor is hotel mogul and aerospace entrepreneur Robert Bigelow, who chipped in a whopping $10 million in July. All told, DeSantis has raised a hefty $172 million as of Aug. 19, per OpenSecrets, a group that tracks political contributions. And though the Utah fundraiser was hosted to solely support DeSantis’s reelection campaign in Florida, attendees discussed his potential 2024 presidential aspirations, recalls Jorgensen. “He’s done a lot of things right,” Citadel CEO Griffin said of DeSantis onstage at the Milken Institute Global Conference in May, also noting that “he is unquestionably one of the forerunners in the Republican primary today.” Griffin has been a top DeSantis donor, giving $5 million to the governor in 2021.

    Though DeSantis hasn’t announced plans to run for president yet, he’s emerged as the principal challenger to Trump, who’s heavily teased a potential 2024 bid. Most recent polls show Trump with a sizable lead over DeSantis (the latest Politico/Morning Consult poll conducted between Aug. 19 and Aug. 21 showed Trump with a 39-point lead over DeSantis, the second-highest-ranking candidate), though DeSantis handily beats others in the hypothetical running.

    But while DeSantis himself has developed a reputation for sparring with the press and issuing forceful and controversial opinions on everything from transgender athletes to his dislike of masks during the COVID-19 pandemic, his biggest backers are largely keeping mum about whether they think he’ll mount a run in 2024—or if they’d support him. Fortune reached out to more than a dozen of these (in fairness, sometimes tight-lipped billionaires) about DeSantis and they either didn’t return requests for comment or declined to speak on the record; DeSantis’s campaign also didn’t respond to multiple requests for an interview.

    It will be some time before DeSantis would hypothetically announce a 2024 bid—he’s still zeroed in on the 2022 gubernatorial race in Florida. And without any candidates having yet thrown their hat in the ring for the 2024 presidential race, there are plenty of unknowns. But it’s clear that whether or not DeSantis would be among them, the Florida governor has garnered powerful and fervent backing from some of the biggest finance and tech players—not only in Florida, but in other parts of the country as well—for his immoderate, and often Trumpian, stances on controversial issues. Through his actions and words, he’s fueling that set of business leaders who think ESG investing is a joke; who don’t believe companies should be weighing in on social issues, or what DeSantis considers anti-“wokeness”; and those who believe the economy should be a top, if not the top, priority.

    Whatever happens in 2024, DeSantis is influencing the conversation leading up to that race.

    Support in the Miami business scene

    Despite his tendency to take on the Establishment, DeSantis himself boasts a classic Ivy League résumé. He spent much of his childhood in Dunedin, Fla., where he played Little League baseball, then attended college at Yale University, where he was captain of the varsity baseball team. After graduating he went on to graduate from Harvard Law School.

    Prior to politics, DeSantis served in the U.S. Navy as a legal adviser, and following active duty, as a federal prosecutor. In his earlier political career, he was a congressman for Florida from 2013 until 2018. He registered further on the national radar when former President Trump endorsed him for governor in the 2018 election, a decision Trump reportedly made after seeing DeSantis speak on Fox News.

    But it wasn’t really until the pandemic that DeSantis’s star began to rise: With the surge of Silicon Valley and Wall Street transplants flocking to Florida in search of zero state income tax and an “open” state during lockdowns, he capitalized on the attention for eschewing public health guidelines and mandates regarding COVID-19 to focus on keeping businesses open during the early days of the pandemic. His controversial COVID stance has been a selling point for some in the business milieu, including some who spoke with Fortune, who perceive him as being particularly pro-business.

    More recently, DeSantis has drawn scrutiny for some of his controversial policies, including the highly criticized bill prohibiting public school teachers from discussing sexual orientation or gender identity with students in kindergarten through third grade, dubbed by opponents as the “Don’t Say Gay” bill. He has also taken a harder stance on abortion, recently suspending a Tampa-area elected state attorney who promised not to enforce the state’s new abortion law following the overturning of Roe v. Wade.

    Some of the business and entrepreneurial crowd who moved to the state over the past couple of years praise the way DeSantis has governed. One such transplant, Bryan Goldberg, founder and CEO of Bustle Digital Group (BDG), which operates media sites including Bustle, W Magazine, and Gawker, moved to Florida during the pandemic, and thinks DeSantis’s track record of prioritizing businesses staying open over public health mandates makes him appealing: “He’s a person who put the economy first,” Goldberg recently told Fortune. He argues that after the past couple of years, “it’s not just Florida—national sentiment has swung favorably toward DeSantis’s performance as governor.” But as to beyond 2022, “that’s a different question,” Goldberg says. (Goldberg donated $1,000 to DeSantis’s reelection campaign in July, per DeSantis’s PAC records.)

    DeSantis’s agenda against what he considers “wokeness” resonates with entrepreneurs like Goldberg: “I think businesses need to stay out of politics. That’s the lesson from the Disney debacle: CEOs are not elected officials,” he told Fortune. In recent years, CEOs have sent press releases and communications to employees about various “social and political issues,” as Goldberg puts it. “That’s wrong. That’s bad. CEOs have one job, and that job is to run their company effectively,” he argues. (When asked about that stance regarding issues that affect employees, like abortion and the overturning of Roe v. Wade, Goldberg said he was not “talking about any particular issue.”)

    Others, like Citadel CEO Griffin, think DeSantis went too far in picking a fight with Disney. DeSantis went after the entertainment titan’s status as a special tax district following the company’s criticism of DeSantis’s Parental Rights in Education law or, colloquially, the “Don’t Say Gay” bill, and Griffin believed the move could look like “retaliation” from DeSantis.

    Notwithstanding some of DeSantis’s stances, like targeting Big Tech, which he has attacked over what he calls social media censorship, Florida has become a hotspot for Silicon Valley and Wall Street expats seeking a more business-friendly state to set up shop. Large companies from financial titan Citadel to Elliott Management Corp. have moved their headquarters to Florida in the past couple of years, alongside asset management firm ARK Investment Management, run by infamous investor Cathie Wood (Wood has historically been a Trump supporter, but declined to comment to Fortune regarding her thoughts on candidates for the next election).

    DeSantis has, however, taken aim at the investment management industry—specifically deriding ESG-focused investing, which takes into account environmental, social, and governance factors, in a ban for State Board of Administration (SBA) fund managers to consider ESG when investing. But those like longtime venture investor and PayPal mafia alum Keith Rabois of VC firm Founders Fund, who’s based in Miami, aren’t put off: “ESG investing is a fraud,” he opined to Fortune, so “if politicians want to reflect our views, we’re certainly not going to be opposed to that.”

    The Florida governor “gives off this vibe that this is a great place to build a business. That is the main thing that I think people are excited about,” Edward Lando, managing partner at early-stage investment and incubation firm Pareto Holdings, based in Miami, told Fortune (Though he lives in Florida, Lando is a French citizen and isn’t eligible to vote in the U.S.). Among his circles, Lando says there’s chatter about DeSantis, and he contends “it’s much less controversial to say that you think DeSantis is an interesting candidate” than Trump.

    Venture investor and outspoken conservative Rabois is, like others, still hedging: “Obviously, everybody’s just waiting to see who runs. There’s no reason to make a decision until you know who the candidates are,” he said. However Rabois said he’d be “excited” about either DeSantis, Florida Senators Marco Rubio or Rick Scott, or Miami Mayor Francis Suarez as the next president, arguing any of those “would have a lot of support across the board from tech and business community leaders in Florida.” Outside the state, he singled out former governor of South Carolina Nikki Haley and Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton as “top-tier candidates,” though he isn’t sure if they’d run, and declared, “I don’t think many business leaders that I know are interested in supporting Trump.”

    The biggest policies Rabois is focused on moving forward include U.S. competition with China; small-business and education recovery from the pandemic; and the “anti-tax and anti-regulation base of Florida” that “promotes” business and “successful jobs,” he says. They’re among a “portfolio of issues” he argues DeSantis can use to contrast himself with others. But among his VC and startup circles, Rabois admits, “We don’t talk about this stuff. I’m too busy.”

    Beyond homegrown Floridians, “Silicon Valley and the tech community did not have a high opinion of President Trump. I don’t expect that to change in the future, nor do I expect the Miami tech scene to receive him much more warmly,” argues Bustle Digital Group’s Goldberg. The stream of tech and finance transplants into Florida has brought with it a crowd who, according to Goldberg, would “consider both parties,” though he believes most Floridians and the tech crowd will favor DeSantis. Issues like abortion rights are important to the tech group, Goldberg suggests, where DeSantis would likely have to tread a careful line: “Of the hundreds of thousands who have journeyed to Florida to start a new life, they’re not coming here in hopes of finding fewer rights,” he suggests.

    But clearly, “it’s one thing to run a state—it’s another thing to run a country,” notes Eric Levine, a longtime GOP fundraiser and attorney. “A lot of people would want to know more about his economic vision.”

    Looking ahead to 2024

    Despite the support the governor has garnered from big-time donors, one possible reason for the general silence on 2024 rumors is the upcoming midterm elections this fall—where Republicans hope to take control of the Senate and the House. Levine, the GOP fundraiser and attorney, argues “it’s hard to know whether or not people are not coming out because they don’t want to cross Trump, or whether or not, like myself, [they] want to stay focused on the midterm elections.” Indeed, numerous reports suggest members of the Republican Party are concerned about Trump announcing a 2024 bid before November, though Trump is now reportedly considering waiting until after the elections.

    But regardless if donors are saying it out loud yet, in terms of the zeitgeist, media attention, and polling, DeSantis has emerged as the key candidate to battle it out with Trump for the next election. “I think part of the reason why DeSantis’s name comes up [for 2024] is everyone’s heard of him,” Levine told Fortune. “There’s a little bit of a flavor of the month because it’s name recognition at this point,” he suggests. “He’s fighting with Disney; he’s fighting with [White House chief medical adviser Dr. Anthony] Fauci; he’s fighting with [California Gov. Gavin] Newsom.”

    But even in the face of Trump’s worldwide notoriety, Levine, for one, doesn’t believe media attention is enough to cut it. “You always have these front-runners—I mean, Hillary Clinton, what happened to her in 2008? Or Jeb Bush in [20]16? Who had higher name recognition and more money than Jeb Bush?” he argues. “There’s a difference between name recognition at the very beginning of the process, and at the end of the day, you know, who you’re going to vote for.”

    Certainly it’s not a two-person race just yet: Levine, for one, says he’s heard the names of Arkansas Sen. Cotton, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, former Governor of South Carolina Haley, former Vice President Mike Pence, and South Carolina Senator Tim Scott tossed around for 2024 (they’re polling far below DeSantis thus far).

    And even in spite of the investigation into Trump over the Jan. 6 insurrection and the recent FBI raid at Mar-a-Lago as part of an investigation into alleged mishandling of classified documents, Trump’s popularity among Republicans is still undeniable—even if, by some polls, the percentage of Republicans who think he should run again has waned somewhat.

    Indeed, Trump’s former White House communications director and SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci, who has long been a vocal critic of DeSantis, told Fortune back in June that he didn’t think DeSantis stood a chance at beating Trump, arguing that Trump would end up “killing DeSantis,” Scaramucci opined at the time. Trump “is a jealous guy,” he argued. “He’ll damage him politically, metaphorically.” Scaramucci added that while Trump “may not actually become the Republican nominee…on the way to not becoming the Republican nominee, I think he’s gonna destroy DeSantis.”

    Those like Utah Republican Party chair Jorgensen wager “if Trump runs, he’s got the grass-roots folks still.” He believes the “political” crowd see DeSantis as “everything you get from Trump without the mean tweets”—or, as the New Yorker noted in a recent profile, “Trump with a brain”—but argues Trump is “still a champion amongst the people.” Indeed, Trump proponents tout that he still has formidable grass-roots support. Trump’s Save America PAC (which is reportedly being probed by a federal grand jury regarding Jan. 6) had roughly $99 million in cash on hand at the end of July (though reports say that money can’t be used for a 2024 campaign, and Trump is already facing accusations that he’s broken campaign laws in raising money while waiting to announce a 2024 run).

    “You’re seeing a lot of people sit back and see what pans out, because I think there’s some people who want to support Trump that are a little leery of it,” Jorgensen theorizes. There are also “people who want to support DeSantis, but none of them dare stick their head out—because it’s a pretty dangerous place to be.”

    Back in Utah earlier this summer, as the attendees of the gubernatorial fundraiser mingled, the topic of the next presidential election was on the tip of tongues—but even at DeSantis’s own event, Jorgensen remembers some attendees bringing up another name in conversations about who they’d be interested in for 2024: Trump.

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