企業家內部網絡是一個在線社區，在這里，最有智慧、最具影響力的商界人士會及時回答有關職業與領導力的問題。本期的問題是：在做出艱難的商業決策時，什么時候應該相信直覺？回答者是Bay Dynamics公司的聯合創始人及首席執行官費里斯·里法伊。

我所有的商業決策都是通過直覺做出的。畢竟，你的直覺是大腦中的潛意識，它會根據過去的經驗來影響你的思路。它能識別出規律模式，起到指南針的作用，幫助你在未來做出好的決策。

然而，要做艱難的決定時，我并不是盲目跟隨我的直覺。首先，我會提出問題，盡可能多地收集信息，讓我（和我的直覺）能在掌握可用信息的基礎上做出合理決定——也就是正確的決定。例如，如果營銷團隊問我是否要參加一個需要繳納10萬美元的會議，在動用我的直覺之前，我會問他們類似這樣的問題：“我們之前參加過這個會議嗎？”“聽眾都有誰？”“我們參會的目的是什么？”“去年參會的投資回報率如何？”在做出決策之前，我需要保證自己先做足了功課，再來動用我的直覺。

每個決定都有能給你指引的參照點。例如，當你每天早上決定穿什么時，你可能會看看當天的天氣預報，再看看日程中是否有會議。這些參照點會給你提醒，不過最后的決定還是取決于你瀏覽衣櫥時所產生的直覺。我的直覺是所有商業決策（以及日常生活決策）的核心，不過首先要問一些合適的問題。

為我的公司Bay Dynamics進行涉及投資和財務業績方面的艱難決定時，我也會用類似的辦法。面見一位投資者時，我會提一些問題，以了解這位投資者究竟是一個什么樣的人，他的目標是什么，想要投資什么等等。收集完這些信息后，我的直覺會根據事實、身體語言、共同的優先級、價值觀和其他細微之處讓我傾向于某種決策。從某種程度上說，我在幫助自己的直覺做出合理的決定。

有時候，我沒法獲得需要的信息來保證我做出的決定是正確的——初創公司經常會遇到這種情況。與其猶豫不決，試圖分析每一種情境，我更傾向于通過這些有限的信息，讓我的直覺來填補所需的空白，從而快速做出決定。

高效的領導實際上可以歸結為一次次良好的決策。我把每次決策都視為一張拼圖。我用參照點拼出大致的圖畫，再依靠直覺填補空白。如果我以前拼過類似的圖，那么我的直覺就能夠成為寶貴的決策工具。然而，如果這幅圖畫不可識別，我可能就會向同事或是合作伙伴咨詢建議，以獲得更多的信息。他們掌握的不同專長，擁有的不同經歷，可以為這個決策過程增添價值。（財富中文網）

譯者：嚴匡正

審校：任文科

The Entrepreneur Insider network is an online community where the most thoughtful and influential people in America’s startup scene contribute answers to timely questions about entrepreneurship and careers. Today’s answer to the question “When making a tough business decision, how do you know when to trust your gut?” is written by Feris Rifai, cofounder and CEO of Bay Dynamics.

I follow my gut with every business decision I make. After all, your gut is the subconscious part of your brain, and it sways your mind one way or another based on past experiences. It recognizes patterns that serve as your compass to make good decisions in the future.

However, when I make a tough decision, I don’t just blindly follow my gut. First and foremost, I ask questions. I want to gather as much information as possible so that I (and my gut) make an informed decision—and subsequently the right decision—based on the information available at the time. For example, if my marketing team asks me if we can participate in a conference that will cost us $100,000, before turning to my gut, I’ll ask the team questions such as, “Have we participated in the event before?” “Who’s the audience?” “What is our goal as a participant?” “What was the ROI from last year?” Before making any decision I make sure to do my homework first, and then turn to my gut.

Every decision you make has to reference points that can help guide you. For example, when you’re deciding what to wear each morning, you may first look at the weather forecast for that day and then look at your schedule to see if you have any meetings. Those reference points inform your decision, but the final choice is ultimately made when you look into your closet and follow your gut. My gut is at the center of all business decisions (and life decisions for that matter), but asking the right questions always comes first.

When it comes to tough decisions surrounding investments and financial outcomes for Bay Dynamics, I apply the same principal. When I sit down at the table with an investor, I first ask questions to get a full understanding of who the investor is, the goals, what the investor is looking to invest in, etc. By gathering that information, I’m also informing my gut so that it sways me in one direction or another based on facts, body language, shared priorities, values, and other nuances that my gut is usually in tune with. In a way, I am helping my gut make an informed decision.

In some cases, I don’t have access to all of the information to be certain I’m making the right decision—a situation that startups run into frequently. Instead of hemming and hawing and trying to analyze every scenario, I look at the limited information in front of me and then turn to my gut to fill in the blanks in a quick and decisive fashion.

Effective leadership comes down to a series of good decisions. I look at each decision as a puzzle. I have reference points to give me a semblance of the picture the pieces form and then I rely on my gut to fill in the rest. If I’ve seen a similar picture before, my gut is a valuable tool in helping me make my decision. However, if the picture is unrecognizable, I may need to turn to my colleagues and business partners for their recommendations so that there’s a multitude of information and guts at work, all of which have different expertise and different past experiences, adding value to the decision-making process.