股凜冬將至：應該適時收手美股的6個理由

整個8月，標普500指數僅僅上下浮動了五次，且幅度均不超過0.5%。這也是近20年來，美國股市最波瀾不驚的一個月。本周一，道瓊斯指數才再次攀升了107點。

美國人對股市表現出了強烈的信心，認為美股強勢回暖的勢頭還會繼續，股市收益也會源源不斷?，F在幾乎所有美國人都指望靠炒股的收益給孩子攢學費，順便給自己攢養老錢。但如果你也抱定了這個打算，那么你最好現實一下，眼下應該擔心一下你在股市賬戶里存下的那些辛苦錢了。雖然美股目前整體極為平靜，但如果你打算把所有積蓄都投在股市里的話，眼下對你來說可能是最危險的時候。

目前美股最大的問題是：投資者對股市信心過度，而股市的前景看起來卻極為疲軟。

首先我們來看看VIX指數，它有時又被稱作“恐慌指數”，因為它追蹤的主要是市場對起保險作用的衍生品合同的需求水平，目前該指數還不到13，遠遠低于20的長期平均值，而且該指數目前的數值還不到一年前的三分之一——去年的這個時候，由于市場對中國經濟增長率的放緩有較強擔憂，從而導致美股暴跌，該指數一度處于較高水平。

而投資者們似乎相信，盡管近期關于股市的警告頻傳，但美聯儲和世界各國央行仍會繼續放松銀根，使利率保持在較低水平。而低利率對于股價來說是個很大的利好消息。

即便利率政策的走向真如他們所料，投資者對股市的期望值依然是過高了。雖然股市大跌并非無法避免，但我們可以肯定，未來股市的收益必然是極低的。所以這里要提醒投資者的是，當下樂觀主義情緒的泛濫是盲目的，它很可能是一次股災的序曲。

以下是你為什么應該對股市感到擔心的六個理由。

1.股價已經非常非常高了

Over the past month through last week, the S&P 500 shifted half a percentage point, either up or down, only five times. That’s the most placid four-week period in two decades. On Monday, stocks rose another 107 points on the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Americans are expressing confidence that the big returns equities have long delivered will keep coming, and that the gains will flow smoothly. But if you’re relying on your equity portfolio to pay for your kids’ tuition and fund your retirement, which is pretty much everyone these days, it’s time to get real, and get worried. Despite the extreme calm, this could be one of the most treacherous times to dump all your money into the stock market.

The problem: Investors are looking incredibly over-confident, and the prospects for stocks are looking exceedingly weak.

The VIX （VIX 0.00%） , which is sometimes called the fear index because it tracks the demand for type of derivative contract that provides insurance against a market drop, is just under 13. That’s far below its long-term average of 20, and less than a third of where it was a year ago, when fears about slowing growth in China caused the U.S. market to drop.

Investors, it appears, are convinced, despite repeated warnings, that the Federal Reserve and the world’s central banks are dedicated to easy money policies, meaning keeping interest rates low. And low interest rates are particularly good for stock prices.

Even if that’s true, though, investors are expecting far too much from the market. While a big drop in stock prices isn’t inevitable, what’s certain is that future returns will be extremely low. Memo to investors: Optimism is rampant, and it’s also delusional. That’s a recipe for disaster.

Here are Six Reasons Why You Should Worry About Stocks.

1.Prices are really, really high.

根據過去四個季度的每股收益計算，目前標普500指數的市盈率是25.5倍，遠高于1990年至今的平均值（19倍），更是遠遠超過了過去140年間的歷史平均值（16倍）。銳聯資產管理公司（Research Affiliates，該公司管理著價值1610億美元的共同基金和交易所交易基金）首席投資官克里斯·布萊特曼對此指出：“問題在于，自從上世紀80年代初開始，股價的增長速度就遠遠超過了股利的增長速度，從而使得股票交易收入大大超越了歷史均值。但這種轉變只會發生一次，不會發生第二次?！?/p>

在這樣高的股價水平上，投資者還能指望未來發生什么呢？我們不妨引入一個這樣一個參考標準：我們都知道市盈率就是股票市價與每股收益的比值（P/E），我們可以把它倒過來，衡量一下每股收益與股票市價的比值（E/P），這樣你就知道你每投資1美元在股市上，每年可以賺到幾毛錢的收益。

目前的E/P約為3.9%，再加上2%的通脹，差不多就是6%。然而悲催的是，這個比例可能被估得太高了。原因是企業出于收購以及給高管漲薪等種種考量，而總是不斷地發行新股。對此，布萊特曼認為，股本的不斷稀釋會導致E/P被減去1.5到2個百分點。因此，你在股市上的年收入更有可能是在4.5%上下。

布萊特曼還提醒道，目前有些所謂的“養老基金專家”們承諾稱，他們的年收益能達到7.5%。華爾街也有些分析師預測稱，未來幾年，股市收益將進入強勢看漲時代。而401K養老金計劃下的一大批人早已經習慣了高達兩位數比例的基金年收益。隨著人人都在追求越來越多的不切實際的收益，市場的整體風險也必將越來越高。

2.盈利是大問題

Right now, the price-to-earnings ratio on the S&P 500 stands at 25.5, based on reported earnings-per-share over the past four quarters. That’s well above the average of around 19 since 1990, and less than 16 spanning the past 140 years. “The problem is that stock prices have been rising a lot faster than earnings since the early 1980s,” says Chris Brightman, chief investment officer of Research Affiliates, a firm that oversees strategies for $161 billion in mutual funds and ETFs. “That’s lifted returns far beyond the long-term average, and it’s a one-time shift. It won’t happen again.”

At these elevated prices, what can investors expect going forward? A reasonable gauge is the inverse of the P/E ratio, or E/P, which transform the popular valuation measure of the market into the annual earnings yield you’re getting on each dollar you’ve paid for stocks.

That inverse ratio stands at 3.9%. Add 2% inflation, and you get to almost 6%. Unfortunately, that estimate is probably too high. The reason: Companies are constantly issuing new shares for acquisitions and executive comp. According to Brightman, constant dilution subtracts between 1.5 and 2.0 percentage points from the earnings yield. Hence, you should count on more like 4.5% annual returns.

The rub, warns Brightman, is that pension fund gurus are promising 7.5% returns. Wall Street market strategists are predicting years of sumptuous returns. And the 401K crowd has gotten used to double digit returns to meet their goals for retirement. With everyone stretching for more and more unrealistic gains, the market is set to get riskier and riskier.

2.The big problem is profits.

我之所以說股市收入會令人失望，甚至有可能演變成一場股災，理由就是在于股市的盈利前景黯淡。

不管以任何標準來看，股票利潤之高已經到了盈不可久的地步。2015年，“財富500強”企業的股票收益合計已占到了總營收入的7%，與近62年的平均值（5.3%）相比，整整高出了32%。

自從2002年科技泡沫破裂以來，許多上市公司在大幅裁員后一直沒有再度補充人手。他們都在勒緊褲帶過日子，只要公司的銷售額沒有大漲，工資單上的數字就很少會漲。加之現在借貸成本顯著下降，因此股票收益的爆發也就不足為奇。

然而當前，如果排除通脹因素，美國經濟的增長率僅為2%左右，遠未達到3%以上的歷史正常水平，這說明上市公司營收入的增長也是步屢維艱，并非很多人想象的“大躍進”。與此同時，很多已經將員工的精力壓榨到極限的公司也終于開始招聘了。大規模的招聘潮必然導致就業市場上的熟練工人數量減少，從而推高了工資水平。加上下一步利率上升可能造成的借貸成本的激增，可以說盈利前景是非常渺茫的。

美國國會預算辦公室（CBO）在今年8月的報告中預測道，從2021年到2026年，美國本土企業的平均利潤大約將只占GDP的7.5%，比當前水平低了整整1個百分點以上。

布萊特曼表示：“以前在相當長的一段時間內，利潤的增長速度要比經濟的增長速度更快，但是現在反過來了?！?/p>

據布萊特曼預測，在排除通脹因素后，在未來十年左右的時間范圍里，美國股市的每股利潤大約會上漲1.5%左右。但他也表示，如果在此期間有政策因素（比如給企業加稅）嚴重影響了利潤的話，那么這個數字也很有可能是0甚至是負數。

3.利率已經低得不能再低了

The reason returns will be disappointing, and could even prove disastrous, is the dreary profit picture.

By all yardsticks, profits are unsustainably high. In 2015, the Fortune 500‘s total earnings equalled 7% of revenues, 32% higher than than the 62-year average of 5.3%.

After the tech bubble burst in 2002, companies didn’t hire back the workers they’d laid off for many years. Instead, they ran extremely lean, so that the wage bill barely rose while sales waxed modestly. That trend, combined with a steep fall in their borrowing costs, created an explosion in earnings.

But today, the economy is growing at just 2% excluding inflation, well below the normal rate of well over 3%, meaning that revenues will trudge, not bolt, forward. At the same time, companies that stretched workforces to the max are finally hiring again, and the shrinking pool of skilled workers is driving pay higher. Add the prospect that rising rates will swell borrowing costs, and the outlook for profits is dim.

In its report in August, the CBO projects that domestic profits will average just 7.5% of GDP from 2021 to 2026, more than a full point below the current figure.

“We had a long period where profits were growing faster than the economy,” says Brightman, “and now it’s reversing.”

Brightman predicts that EPS will rise at 1.5%, excluding inflation, over the next decade or so. But he warns that number could easily be zero or even negative if public policy—like higher corporate taxes—severely punished profits.

3.Interest Rates Are As Low As They Can Go

雖然華爾街的很多人對美元利率的上漲極為擔憂，然而利率的穩步上漲并不會對經濟產生嚴重危害。實際上美聯儲的連續加息政策甚至可能會對經濟起到促進作用，因為它有助于提振信心。不過有兩種情形可能還是會讓投資者感到擔憂。

首先，目前看來，美聯儲發布的任何加息決定似乎都會令市場感到恐慌。比如畢安可研究公司（Bianco Research LLC）總裁吉姆·畢安可表示：“市場不相信美聯儲關于利率的任何承諾，可是如果耶倫真的宣布了加息決定，投資者又會像去年12月那次加息時那樣再度陷入恐慌?！辈贿^如果加息的確預示著經濟即將好轉，那么股市上的拋售行為也將是暫時的，因為高利潤隨后就要來了。

第二種情形就是突然的大幅加息，這必然會嚇壞投資者，并且造成更持久的破壞。這是因為至少在短時間內，企業和消費者的借貸成本會迅速上漲，而企業利潤會迅速下降。據CBO預測，到2020年，美國的10年國債利率約為3.4%，這個數字也預示了下一步最有可能發生的情形：一是緩慢加息，從而不會導致市場恐慌；二是收益的緩慢增長，從而使市盈率能保持當前水平，同時也能為股東產生較低的個位數百分比的收益。

4.當前的政治氣候更傾向工人而非利潤

Contrary to the fears of many on Wall Street, a gradual rise in rates shouldn’t seriously dent the economy. In fact, continued rate hikes from the Federal Reserve might actually boost the economy, by giving a lift to confidence. However, two possible scenarios should trouble investors.

First, it seems that any rate increase the Fed announces can spook markets. “The market doesn’t believe any of the Fed’s promises about rates, but as soon as Yellen actually announces a new increase, investors will panic, just as they did after the December increase,” says Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research LLC. If the rise does indeed signal a better economy, the selloff should be temporary, because higher profits should follow.

Second, a big, sudden rate rise is certain to spook investors, and cause more lasting damage. That’s because companies’ and consumers’ borrowing costs would rise a rapidly while their revenues and incomes play catchup, pummeling corporate profits, at least for a while.

The CBO forecasts 3.4% rates on the 10 year by 2020. That number implies what’s most likely: a gradual rise in rates that won’t spook markets, and slow earnings growth that could keep P/Es where they are now, but produce low single-digit returns for shareholders.

4.The political climate is pro-worker, not pro-profits.

不管特朗普和希拉里誰贏得大選，新一屆美國政府肯定都希望工人階級能多賺不少錢，而相應地，企業就會少賺不少錢。自資本主義誕生以來，企業的繁榮發展主要靠剝削工人的剩余價值，這個道理已經被人們所普遍接受，而且它基本上也是正確的。民主共和兩黨都覺得討好工人階級才是王道，所以雙方都在想方設法去回饋那些造車工人、超市店員和餐廳服務員們。

比如，有不少企業為了將低人力成本而將生產轉移到了海外，希拉里和特朗普都表示他們上臺后要對這種行為進行處罰。對此布萊特曼評價道：“當前的政治環境已經使離岸生產成了一種‘有毒’的東西”。希拉里還聲稱要提高全美的最低工資標準，要求企業必須與工人分享利潤，并且要堵住一些使很多企業能夠繳納極低的現金稅的漏洞。

且不管這些政策真正是好是壞，他們對利潤來說絕對是個壞消息。很多企業已經處在增收緩慢和成本上升之間的夾縫里，這些政策只會令這個夾縫愈收愈窄。如果下一步美國在法律法規的制訂上真的做得太過火了，比如讓那些反自由貿易和嚴格限制移民的法案得以通過，那么美國所面臨的風險就不僅是利潤增長緩慢那么簡單了（當然這基本上也是難以避免的），而是必將面臨崩潰。

5.小心歐洲的“黑天鵝”

Whether Trump or Clinton wins the presidency, it’s clear that the a new administration will want workers to earn a lot more, and by implication, for corporations to earn a lot less. It’s widely accepted, and basically correct, that companies have prospered for years at the expense of their workers. And both parties believe it’s beyond time the balance shifted back to rewarding the men and women who make the cars, check out the groceries, and serve the burgers.

Both candidates, for example, are promising to penalize companies for shipping production offshore, an important strategy for lowering labor costs. “The political situation is making off-shoring toxic,” says Brightman. Clinton also advocates a higher federal minimum wage, mandatory profit-sharing and family leave, and elimination of loopholes that allow many companies to pay extremely low cash taxes.

Whatever the merits of these proposals, they’re bad news for profits. They’d further tighten the squeeze between slow revenue growth and expanding costs. If the legislation and regulation, including those to nix free trade deals and severely restrict immigration, go too far, the U.S. risks not just slow growth in profits—that’s practically inevitable—but a collapse.

5.Beware European Black Swans.

英國脫歐公投之后，各國對歐元區凝聚力的懷疑也與日俱增。今年十月，意大利也即將舉行一次憲法公投，意大利總理馬泰奧·倫齊宣稱，如果公投失敗他就辭職。雖然意大利公投并未將矛頭直接指向歐盟，但它很有可能為意大利國內的極右黨派創造一次良機，便于他們為放棄歐元或脫離歐盟造勢。

意大利的銀行基本上已經到了破產的邊緣，缺乏信用更是延長了該國的深度衰退。歐盟關于拒絕救助意大利銀行業的裁定又加深了意大利與歐盟的矛盾。如果倫齊的政改計劃失敗，或是意大利的銀行全面崩潰（或是二者都在一定程度上發生了），則很有可能導致歐元區的第三大經濟體拋棄歐元貨幣，重新使用里拉。

同時，法國、葡萄牙、波蘭等國的民族主義和反歐盟運動，也有可能導致歐元區分崩離析。

歐元區的崩潰或將成為一只象征災難的“黑天鵝”，導致恐慌蔓延至世界各地。但它也是一次歷史性的買入良機。歐洲的一些弱國擺脫了歐元區的束縛后，很可能會重新獲得競爭力，并且得以擺脫拖累他們多年的頑固僵化的弊病。

6.當心油價

In the aftermath of the Brexit vote, Euro-skepticism is on the rise. In October, Italy is holding a constitutional referendum and its prime minister, Matteo Renzi, pledges to resign if it’s defeated. Renzi’s exit would create a wide opening for ultra-right wing parties that favor dumping the euro, or leaving the European Union.

Italy’s banks are also basically insolvent, and a dearth of credit is prolonging its deep recession. Brussels’ refusal to suspend EU rules that block Renzi from bailing out Italian lenders is causing further tension. A Renzi loss, a banking collapse, or a combination of the two could cause the Eurozone’s third largest economy to ditch the common currency and restore the lira.

And nationalist, anti-EU movements in France, Portugal, Poland, and other nations could cause the Eurozone to fracture.

A Eurozone collapse would be the ultimate black swan, causing panic selling worldwide. But it would also be an historic buying opportunity. Freed of the strictures of the euro, the weaker nations would regain their competitiveness, and escape the stagnation and austerity that have plagued them for years.

6.Watch Out for Oil.

畢安可提醒道，原油價格一旦崩潰，有可能會引發一次信用危機?！艾F在的原油價格在45美元左右，當油價處于這個水平或以上時，油價和股市之間沒有什么相關性。但當油價跌落到30美元的區間上，油價與股市就有很高的相關性了?！比绻蛢r真的跌到這個水平，那么石油開采商、供應商和其他生產商持有的3萬億美元的債務“就將面臨嚴重的違約風險”。畢可安指出，上一次油價大跌時，銀行股的股價也下跌了20%，就是由于市場擔心他們向能源行業提供的貸款可能違約。畢可安認為，油價大跌會帶來一個信貸問題，它波及的范圍或許沒有次貸危機那么大，但其危害仍然是極大的。

總而言之，我們已經進入了一個新時代。它跟華爾街所鼓吹的并不一樣?，F在的經濟正在被低收入增長率、成本上漲、利潤縮水、政治氣候對企業不利等諸多問題所困擾。當然股市也不是沒有稀里糊涂地撐過去的可能，但如果你只是對股市的那段高收益的日子戀戀不舍，那你最好還是像一首歌中唱得那樣；“放手吧”。華爾街上，凜冬將至。（財富中文網）

譯者：樸成奎

Bianco warns that a collapse in crude prices would create credit crisis. “When the price is 45 or above, about where it is now, there’s no correlation between oil and the stock market,” says Bianco. “But when it falls to the low $30s, there’s a very high correlation.” He argues that $3 trillion in debt held by frackers, suppliers and other producers are “at serious risk of defaulting” at those levels. The last time prices tanked, he notes, bank prices fell 20%, on fears their energy loans would default. He warns that it becomes a credit problem—one that may not be as large as the sub-prime crisis, but still extremely damaging.

In conclusion, we’ve entered a new era. It’s not the one Wall Street is selling. Investors are buying into an economy beset with low revenue growth, rising costs, dwindling profits, and a political climate hostile to business. Stocks could well muddle through, but if you’re nostalgic for the past, as the song says, “Let it go.” On Wall Street, winter is coming.