什么才是中國股市的最大威脅

馬克?吐溫曾說過，歷史不會重演，但卻總是驚人的相似。最近，我們所看到的中國股市拋售與去年十分相似，但對于美國投資者來說，兩者之間存在一個重大區別，即美聯儲可能沒有像9月那樣糾結于市場的波動。當時，受地緣政治動蕩和隨之而來的波動的影響，美聯儲推遲了加息舉措。

在美聯儲看來，中國增速的放緩不會給美國經濟前景帶來重大風險，因為美聯儲已在前景展望中考慮了這一因素?？死蛱m聯邦儲備銀行行長洛瑞塔?梅斯特在最新的演講中明確了這一表態。同一天，舊金山聯邦儲備銀行行長約翰?威廉姆斯也表示，股市拋售不會影響美聯儲的決策。

今后，中國股市還會經歷更多的苦日子。盡管人們應謹慎對待此事，但它不應被解讀為恐慌的理由。美國投資者大多認為，2016年，有很多問題都有可能為股市帶來更大的波動，而中國是其中之一，其他因素包括英國可能于6月脫離歐盟以及中東、亞洲的緊張局勢。美國投資者有必要學會適應中國波動頻繁的股市。要做到這一點，美國投資者應進一步了解當今市場背后的驅動因素。

首先，一旦少數負面經濟數據論點浮出水面，人們對中國增速放緩的擔憂便不絕于耳，原因在于中國經濟缺乏透明度。在經濟上揚時期，投資者似乎并不怎么在意經濟的透明度，但是當經濟開始放緩時，透明度便成了備受關注的話題。

最近拋售的導火索之一是備受關注的財新中國采購經理人指數比預期更糟糕。在某種程度上，市場一片恐慌的原因在于投資者看不清中國的形勢，而且會做出最壞的打算。

另一個例子是原油價格，它已連續下跌了一年有余。通常，投資者認為油價下跌對于經濟增長來說是一個好消息，因為低油價意味著消費者用于購買其他商品的花費將增加。然而，投資者并不知道此輪油價下跌的幕后推手到底是供應還是需求。如果投資者認為油價下跌源于需求的不足，那么人們就會將其看作是中國需求疲軟的跡象。只要外界對于中國增速放緩仍心存恐慌，預計油價將繼續面臨下行壓力，而這一現象最近也為美國股市帶來了下行壓力。

當市場出現扭曲時，中國通常都會采取干預措施，而這也是導致市場波動的元兇之一。中國官方最近下調了人民幣的匯率，而上一次下調是在2015年8月，這兩次下調均引發了股市的小幅震蕩。此外，本周是很多中國投資者在半年禁售期滿后首次出售股票，而“禁售令”則是去年中國股市拋售潮的產物。

一些人認為，熔斷機制的引入加劇了拋售。采用熔斷機制后，股票價格波幅在超出某一范圍后將無法自然恢復。這一舉措給投資者帶來了一定程度的流動性危機，而這必然會加劇波動性。當然，中國也叫停了熔斷機制，為的是讓股市能在將來有所好轉。

這其中還存在一些更為宏觀的因素。中國正從投資型經濟向消費型經濟轉變，而這也會讓股市經歷不少挫折。相對于其他國家的投資者，美國投資者可能對意識形態問題更為敏感，因為美國投資者更看重自由市場。兩種意識形態之間的差異也可能會引發人們的恐慌。

尤為值得一提的是，人們普遍認為，在社會主義社會中，國家利益是高于個人利益的。而這一觀念對于資本家來說是噩夢，因為他們認為個人自由比國家更為重要。資本主義社會是一個自律的經濟體系，而社會主義社會是一個由政府主導的系統。推行以市場自由化和資本主義繁榮為目的的改革需要時間，而且也會讓股市再次遭遇劇烈震蕩。（財富中文網）

克里斯汀娜?霍珀是Allianz Global Investors美國投資策略師。

譯者：馮豐

校對：詹妮

Mark Twain is attributed with saying that history may not repeat itself, but it certainly does rhyme. What we are seeing recently in terms of the Chinese stock market sell-off is similar to what we saw last year, except the one big difference for US investors is that the Fed may not be as worried about the volatility – unlike what we saw in September, when geopolitical turmoil and resulting volatility helped postpone the Fed’s rate hike.

In a speech on Monday, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester was clear that a China slowdown is not viewed as a significant risk to the Fed’s economic outlook for the US, as it’s already been built into the outlook. And on the same day, San Francisco Fed President John Williams said that a stock market sell-off won’t impact the Fed’s decision making.

In the year ahead, China’s stock market is in for many more bad days. But while there is cause for caution, that shouldn’t translate into a cause for panic. The bigger takeaway for U.S. investors is that China is one of many issues that will likely create more volatility for equity investors in 2016, driven by factors such as Britain potentially leaving the Euro in June and heightened tensions in the Middle East and Asia. US investors will need to learn to become accustomed to China’s volatile market. What might help is a better understanding of what’s driving markets today.

First of all, when a few negative economic data points are released, fears of a slowdown in China become overblown because there is a lack of transparency when it comes to the Chinese economy. Investors don’t seem to mind opaqueness when economies are moving up – but they seem to matter greatly when economies are slowing.

One catalyst for this week’s sell-off was a worse-than-expected reading for the Caixin, a purchasing manager index that is a closely watched indicator of manufacturing activity. In a way, the fears were overblown as investors wonder what’s happening in China – and think the worst.

Another example is oil prices, which has fallen for more than a year. Usually investors take a drop in prices as good news for economic growth, as cheaper oil means consumers can spend more on other items. However, investors have wondered whether this oil price drop has been driven largely by supply or largely by demand. To the extent investors believe that the drop is demand-driven, the assumption is that it is a sign of weak China demand. As long as fears are overblown about a China slowdown, expect downward pressure on the price of oil, which recently has meant downward pressure on U.S. stocks.

China’s tendency to intervene when the market goes awry is also to blame for the market’s volatility. Authorities depreciated the yuan again this week, following a devaluation last August – which caused jitters then as well as now. What’s more, this week was the first time many Chinese investors were able to sell stocks following a long lockdown period, which was implemented following a sell-off last year in the Chinese stock market.

And some have argued that the sell-offs during the past week have been exacerbated by the implementation of circuit breakers, which don’t allow for a natural recovery in stock prices once they have become oversold. These actions have created something of a liquidity crisis for investors, which can of course also add to volatility. Having said that, China also announced this week that they are doing away with circuit breakers so the situation could improve going forward.

There are bigger issues at play as well. China is transitioning from an investment-based economy to a consumption-based economy – and that will bring with it many hiccups. US investors may be more sensitive to this issue than investors from other countries given strong views on free markets. This may cause apprehension, given the differences between the two ideologies.

In particular, Communism is widely viewed as an ideology where the state has priority over individuals. That is anathema to capitalists, for whom individual freedom is more important than the state. And while capitalism is a self-regulated economic system, Communism is a government-run system. Enacting reforms that enable markets to be free and capitalism to flourish will take time – and again will come with significant hiccups.

Kristina Hooper is US Investment Strategist for Allianz Global Investors.