美國正衰落的12個跡象

????一份新近發布的學術報告綜合此前發布的數據認為，從多項重要衡量指標看，美國正在走下坡路，不過決策者還沒有注意到這點。

????請看以下數據：

????? 美國的兒童貧困率比其他任何一個發達國家都高，連飽受歐元區危機之苦的希臘和波蘭、立陶宛、愛沙尼亞等東歐國家也比美國的低。

????? 美國的成年國民財富中位值為3.9萬美元，在全球所有國家和地區中排名第27位，塞浦路斯和愛爾蘭都超過美國。

????? 要是比一比“生活滿意度”，美國只排在第12位，落后于以色列、瑞典和澳大利亞。

????報告作者認為，作為高度工業化的國家，美國的人均財富、健康和教育總得來說只能算平庸。而且，衡量美國社會福祉的多種指標、國內的清廉程度、基礎性服務的質量和成本也都在下滑。政府投入醫療衛生和教育的經費支持著龐大的管理機構，而醫療和教育的成果每況愈下。

????紐約市立大學布魯克林學院的企業營銷學教授赫爾希.H.弗雷德曼是共同撰寫上述報告的一位作者。他說：“我們觀察了覆蓋范圍廣泛的衡量指標，也觀測了特定的個別指標?！眻蟾孀髡哒J為，他們發現最危險的跡象包括：雖然國民收入增加，但存在貧富差距，這導致經濟增長放緩，可能引起社會動蕩。

????弗雷德曼與帝國州立學院的教授沙拉·赫爾茨（報告的另一位作者）在報告中寫道：“資本主義取得了驚人的成功?！笨稍诿绹?，它已經變得太肆無忌憚，掠奪性和排他性都太強，實際上淪為權貴資本主義。弗雷德曼稱，如今，即便是卡塔爾和羅馬尼亞那種“你預想不到的國家，表現都比我們（美國）強?！?/p>

????赫爾茨接著補充：“（美國）很快就會變成二流國家?！?/p>

????確切來說，美國是否衰落這些年一直是熱議的問題。美國情報機構智庫國家情報委員會十年前發布的全球趨勢報告認為，美國的國力呈下行趨勢。其他持有同樣觀點的機構認為，美國軍事擴張過度，技術準備不夠，金融系統存在風險。而且，面對有影響力的新競爭對手，美國干勁不足。

????另一些機構認為，美國衰落是夸大其辭。他們指出，美國股市在上漲，制造業實力雄厚，人口不斷增加，國內能源領域欣欣向榮。

????上述報告的作者收集了許多此前公開的關鍵指標排名，排位形勢發人深省。

????1、家庭中位收入

????美國排名：27個高收入國家中倒數第一

????美國人可能感覺自己是世界領袖，但美國的家庭中位收入只有5.4萬美元左右，西班牙、塞浦路斯和卡塔爾都比美國高。許多歐洲國家和工業化國家都排在美國前面。美國的人均中位收入為1.87萬美元，也處于較低的水平，并且2000年以來幾乎沒有變動?，F在，即使比較中產階級的收入，加拿大也已經超過美國。

????2、教育與技能

????美國排名：23個國家中第16位

????經合組織對歐洲成員國和其他發達成員國進行的一項技能調查顯示，美國的排名接近榜尾。據調查報告“2013年經合組織技能展望”，23個該組織成員國之中，美國的成人閱讀能力排在第16位，成人運算能力倒數第三，利用技術解決問題的能力位居第14名。美國的一些知名大學全球備受推崇，可高等教育在美國再也不是擺脫貧困的有效方式，至少對低收入的少數族裔學生是如此。例如，報告作者援引的研究數據顯示，80%的美國白人大學生都就讀于財經雜志《巴倫周刊》評選的500強學府，而75%的黑人和拉丁裔學生在兩年制的?？茖W?；蛘呙庠嚾雽W的非《巴倫周刊》500強大學。窮學生拿到大學學位的可能性也低得多。

????3、互聯網接入和網速

????美國排名：34個國家中第16位

????寬帶接入對國家工業的發展與繁榮至關重要。而在富有國家之中，美國的互聯網普及率較低，網速也慢，上網成本卻是最高的。比如在日本，平均1兆字節/秒的上網費為0.04美元，而美國是0.53美元。報告的作者認為，此問題可能源于美國寬帶市場競爭太小，市場份額集中在少數企業手中。

????4、健康

????美國排名：145個國家之中第33位

????在至少100萬人口的國家之中，美國國民的健康水平落后于許多富有國家。報告作者援引英國醫學雜志《柳葉刀》的一項研究稱，妊娠和分娩時死亡的美國女性相對較多。在美國，每出生10萬名嬰兒，就有18.5位母親死去。沙特和加拿大的孕婦死亡率只有美國的一半。

????America is declining, in large and important measures, yet policymakers aren’t paying attention. So argues a new academic paper, pulling together previously published data.

????Consider this:

????? America’s child poverty levels are worse than in any developed country anywhere, including Greece, devastated by a euro crisis, and eastern European nations such as Poland, Lithuania and Estonia.

????? Median adult wealth in the US ($39,000) is 27th globally, putting it behind Cyprus and Ireland.

????? Even when “life satisfaction” is measured, America ranks #12, behind Israel, Sweden and Australia.

????Overall, America’s per capita wealth, health and education measures are mediocre for a highly industrialized nation. Well-being metrics, perceptions of corruption, quality and cost of basic services, are sliding, too. Healthcare and education spending are funding bloated administrations even while human outcomes sink, the authors say.

????“We looked at very broad measures, and at individual measures, too,” said co-author Hershey H. Friedman, a business professor at Brooklyn College – City University of New York. The most dangerous sign they saw: rising income and wealth inequality, which slow growth and can spark instability, the authors say.

????“Capitalism has been amazingly successful,” write Friedman and co-author Sarah Hertz of Empire State College. But it has grown so unfettered, predatory, so exclusionary, it’s become, in effect, crony capitalism. Now places like Qatar and Romania, “countries you wouldn’t expect to be, are doing better than us,” said Friedman.

????“You can become a second-rate power very quickly,” added Hertz.

????To be sure, the debate over whether America is on the decline has raged for years. The US National Intelligence Council said in its global trends report a decade ago American power was on a downward trajectory. Others making the case say the US is overstretched militarily, ill-prepared technologically, at-risk financially, or lacking dynamism in the face of influential, new competitors.

????Arguing decline has been exaggerated, others point to a rising US stock market, manufacturing strength, a growing population, and a domestic energy boom.

????The authors collect many previously published rankings, and the picture that emerges, however, is sobering:

????1. Median household income

????Rank of U.S.: 27th out of 27 high-income countries

????Americans may feel like global leaders, but Spain, Cyprus and Qatar all have higher median household incomes than America’s (about $54,000). So does much of Europe and the industrialized world. Per capita median income in the US ($18,700) is also relatively low–and unchanged since 2000. A middle-class Canadian’s income is now higher.

????2. Education and skills

????Rank of U.S.: 16th out of 23 countries

????The US ranked near the bottom in a skills survey by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, which examined European and other developed nations. In its Skills Outlook 2013, the US placed 16th in adult literacy, 21st in adult numeracy out of 23, and 14th in problem-solving. Spots in prestigious US universities are highly sought-after. Yet higher education, once an effective way out of poverty in the US, isn’t anymore – at least not for lower-income and minority students. The authors quote studies showing, for example, that today 80% of white college students attend Barron’s Top 500 schools, while 75% of black and Latino students go to two-year junior colleges or open-admissions (not Top 500) schools. Poor students are also far less likely to complete a degree.

????3. Internet speed and access

????Rank of U.S.: 16th out of 34 countries

????Broadband access has become essential for industry to grow and flourish. Yet in the US, penetration is low and speed relatively slow versus wealthy nations—thought the cost of internet is among the highest ($0.04 per megabit per second in Japan, for example, versus $0.53 in the US). The problem may be too much concentration and too little competition in the industry, the authors suggest.

????4. Health

????Rank of U.S.: 33rd out of 145 countries

????When it comes to its citizens’ health, in countries that are home to at least one million people, the US ranks below many other wealthy countries. More American women also are dying during pregnancy and childbirth, the authors note, quoting a Lancet study. For every 100,000 births in the United States, 18.5 women die. Saudi Arabia and Canada have half that maternal death rate.