俄羅斯面臨抉擇：是拯救盧布還是拯救寡頭經濟？

????誰會愿意處在埃爾維拉?納比烏琳娜的位置上呢？

????去年12月份，這位俄羅斯央行行長將基準利率上調至驚人的17%，以免盧布遭到擠兌。此舉一度獲得了成功，但代價是除了總統普京的熟人外，其他所有人的信貸供應均告中斷。

????在一波財團對此詬病不斷后，納比烏琳娜又在上周五反其道而行之，將基準利率下調至15%。

????身處這種進退兩難的境地，我們很難斷定此舉在今后一兩個月里是否能挽救眾多的俄羅斯企業。然而，由于油價沒有反彈，盧布重挫之后仍未得到支撐，此舉對于俄羅斯民眾的沖擊倒是立即就能見分曉。

????盧布一度跌至今年最低點，美元兌盧布匯率最高報71.81。隨后，俄羅斯央行顯然進行了干預，帶動美元/盧布匯率回到70.50。筆者撰寫本文時，盧布有再創收盤新低之勢。

????Who’d be Elvira Nabiullina?

????In December, Russia’s central bank chief ramped her key interest rate up to an eye-watering 17% in an attempt to stop a run on the currency. She succeeded in the short term, but at the price of stopping the supply of credit to everyone not on first-name terms with President Vladimir Putin.

????On Friday, she reversed course, cutting the key rate to 15% after a barrage of criticism from a barrage of big business.

????As is generally the case in this kind of dilemma, it won’t be clear for a month or two many Russian businesses will be saved by this. What is clear immediately is the hit that ordinary Russians will have to take, absent a rebound in the oil price to support the country’s battered currency.

????The ruble fell to its lowest level this year, hitting RUB71.81 against the dollar before apparent intervention by the central bank drove it back to 70.50. At the time of writing, it’s heading for another all-time record low close.

????通常，在經濟陷入困境時，放松貨幣政策以重振企業的國際競爭力是相當明智的主意。希臘和意大利都樂此不疲。多年來日本也一直在這樣做。但這三個國家的通脹率都沒有在超過13%之后繼續攀升。

????俄羅斯大多數物資都依賴進口，從食品（逾40%靠進口）到耐用消費品，再到藥品。因此，盧布貶值必然意味著民眾生活水平的下降。僅去年12月份，俄羅斯的物價增長水平（2.6%）就超過了西班牙三年來的累計物價漲幅。通脹直線上升造成去年俄羅斯居民實際收入下降，這是2000年普京當政以來從未出現過的局面。

????上周五，俄羅斯央行對降息做出了解釋。該行稱，受12月份的舉措影響，今年晚些時候通脹壓力有望減輕，但受此牽連，今年上半年俄羅斯經濟年化增長率將跌至3.2%。

????其帶來的損害隨處可見——通用汽車上周五提高了雪佛蘭Niva的售價，這是該車型在五個星期內第二次漲價；通用汽車還表示，該公司設在圣彼得堡的工廠將從3月中旬開始停產兩個月。福特和大眾也指出，在俄羅斯的虧損對自身盈利產生了重大影響。

????其他行業同樣受到了沖擊，只是原因不同。上周三，嘉士伯稱旗下10家俄羅斯工廠中將有兩家關門歇業。而實際上，啤酒的原料進口成本一點兒也不高；此外，嘉士伯還可以從丹麥大本營為俄羅斯業務提供資金，而且利率接近于零。但不利因素是，幾年來，為打擊酗酒行為，俄羅斯政府已將啤酒消費稅提高到了原來的三倍。

????就此宣布俄羅斯經濟已毫無希望有夸張之嫌。去年12月份，俄羅斯工業產值實際上同比增長了3.9%，支柱性的石油和天然氣產業做出了主要貢獻。俄鋼鐵集團OAO NLMK表示，2014年核心利潤創四年來新高，原因是盧布貶值提高了出口利潤率。面對歐洲和美國產品禁運帶來的挑戰，俄羅斯肉類和乳制品企業也站了出來。只是在斯摩棱斯克的馬蘇里拉奶酪是否優于意大利原產的問題上，人們還眾口不一。

????不過，俄羅斯鋁業聯合公司首席執行官奧列格?德里帕斯卡上周說，如果利率達到30%，那么靠本土制造替代進口產品就會變得十分困難，而且飆升的壞賬率會讓銀行苦不堪言。

????今后在很長一段時間里，俄羅斯央行行長納比烏琳娜估計都會走在“鋼絲繩”上，而且她還要受到兩面夾擊。（財富中文網）

????譯者：Charlie

????審稿：李翔

????Normally, with a struggling economy, loosening monetary policy to restore the international competitiveness of industry is a pretty sensible idea. Greece and Italy would just love to do it. Japan’s been doing it for years. But none of them already has an inflation rate of over 13% and rising.

????Russia is dependent on imports for most things, from food (over 40%) to consumer durables and pharmaceuticals, so a drop in the exchange rate automatically means a drop in living standards. Prices rose by more in December alone (2.6%) than they have in Spain in the last three years. Rocketing inflation meant that real incomes fell last year for the first time since Putin took power in 2000.

????The CBR justified its rate cut Friday by saying it expects inflationary pressures to ease later this year as a result of what it did in December, but the collateral damage is that the economy will shrink at an annualized rate of 3.2% in the first half of this year.

????The damage is visible pretty much everywhere: General Motors Corp. GM -1.63% Friday announced its second price increase in five weeks for its Chevrolet Niva models, and said it would suspend production at its assembly plant in St. Petersburg for two months from mid-March. Ford and Volkswagen have also reported major hits to earnings from losses in Russia.

????Other sectors are also suffering, albeit for different reasons. Carlsberg SA CABJF -0.80% said Wednesday it would close two of its 10 breweries in Russia, even though beer doesn’t need any expensive imported inputs, and even though it can finance operations from its home country Denmark at rates near to zero. It doesn’t help that the government has tripled excise duty on beer in the last couple of years in a bid to crack down on alcoholism.

????It would be an exaggeration to write Russia’s economy off completely: industrial production was actually up 3.9% on the year in December, thanks mainly to the key oil and gas industry. Steel company OAO NLMK said core profits in 2014 were the best in four years, as the cheaper ruble increased its export margins. Meat and dairy producers also stepped up to the challenge of replacing E.U. and U.S. produce banned by sanctions, though whether Smolensk’s mozzarella represents an improvement on Italy’s is a moot point.

????But as aluminum producer Rusal CEO Oleg Deripaska said last week, it’s going to be difficult for industry to substitute imports with local production if interest rates are at 30% and banks are crippled by souring loan books.

????Nabiullina has a long tightrope walk ahead of her–and no shortage of people firing at her from both sides.