克里米亞危機中的美俄經濟賬

????笨蛋，這是經濟。

????俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾?普京周二簽署議案正式批準克里米亞加入俄羅斯，全然無視周末美國總統奧巴馬發出的經濟制裁威脅。雖然有些人認為在烏克蘭發生的這一切是由于地緣政治態度（ 比如，亞利桑那州參議員約翰?麥凱恩就將俄羅斯的舉動歸咎于奧巴馬政府在外交政策上“令人不安地缺乏現實態度”），但從經濟貿易角度分析，可以讓人對整體形勢有更清楚的了解。

????簡言之，俄羅斯和美國能毫無忌憚地反目，是因為兩國關系惡化可能造成的經濟損失很小。根據研究公司高頻經濟（High Frequency Economics）卡爾?溫伯格的分析，美俄之間的貿易聯系微不足道：

????2013年美國對俄商品出口總計僅110億美元，不到美國GDP的0.1%。美國自俄羅斯的商品進口總計270億美元，略低于美國GDP的0.2%。

????美俄之間的直接金融聯系也很少。根據（財政部），俄羅斯人持有1390億美元美國國債，基本上不持有美國公司債或股票——至少不是直接持有。俄羅斯在美國的直接投資看來也很少。反過來，美國居民在俄羅斯持有700億美元的長期證券和140億美元的直接投資。

????相比之下，歐盟經濟對于俄羅斯的依賴程度要高得多，歐盟大量的天然氣供應都來自于俄羅斯氣田。這一點或許能解釋為什么上周末美國宣布經濟制裁時，歐盟沒有像美國那么強硬。

????可與之對比的是美中經濟關系。與俄羅斯不同，中國是美國重要的出口市場：根據國會研究服務部（Congressional Research Service）的數據，如果將美資公司在華銷售額與美國公司的出口額加在一起，中國市場規模將達到3000億美元。2013年，中美貿易總額超過了5千億美元，在兩國經濟總產出中占到了相當比例。

????這些統計數據也有助于解釋為什么通常在聯合國安理會（United Nations Security Council）議題中支持俄羅斯的中國，日前在譴責俄羅斯的投票中投了棄權票。（財富中文網）

????

????It's the economies, stupid.

????Russian President Vladimir Putin signed legislation officially annexing Crimea on Tuesday, in blatant disregard of threats of economic sanctions that President Barack Obama announced over the weekend. And while some have considered the events in Ukraine the result of geopolitical posturing (Arizona Senator John McCain, for instance, has blamed Russia's actions on the Obama administration's "disturbing lack of realism" on foreign policy.), economics and trade offer a much clearer view of the situation.

????Put simply, Russia and the U.S. are free to antagonize each other because they have very little to lose economically from deteriorated relations. According to analysis from Carl Weinberg of High Frequency Economics, trade ties between the U.S. and Russia are minuscule:

????U.S. goods exports to Russia totaled just $11 billion in 2013, equivalent to less than 0.1% of U.S. GDP. U.S. goods imports from Russia totaled $27 billion, just under 0.2% of U.S. GDP.

????The direct financial linkages between the United States and Russia are also small. According to [the Treasury Department] Russians hold $139 billion in U.S. Treasury securities and virtually no U.S. corporate bonds or equities -- at least directly. Russian direct investment in the United States also appears minimal. In the other direction, U.S. residents hold $70 billion in long-term securities and $14 billion in direct investment in Russia.

????Meanwhile, the European Union is far more reliant on Russia for its economic health, as much of the E.U.'s supply of natural gas comes from Russian gas fields. This may explain why the E.U. has been less forceful than the U.S. in its sanctions announced this weekend.

????By contrast, take a look at the United States' economic relationship with China. Unlike Russia, China is a very lucrative source for U.S. exports -- it constitutes a $300 billion market for U.S. firms if you combine both exports and sales in China by firms with U.S. investment, according to the Congressional Research Service. Total trade between China and the U.S. reached more than half a trillion dollars in 2013, a significant chunk of both countries' total economic output.

????These statistics also help explain why China -- which often sides with Russia on questions brought to the United Nations Security Council -- abstained from a vote to condemn Russia's actions in Eastern Europe.