烏克蘭：別擔心，要冷靜
|
????俄羅斯威脅要在烏克蘭南部的克里米亞半島發動戰爭，進而吞并這個毗鄰黑海的地區。在這種情況下，大家可能認為烏克蘭新政府談到岌岌可危的國內政治局勢時會顯得驚恐不已。 ????如果這樣想就錯了。相反，基輔的官方態度是：別擔心，請鎮靜。 ????上個月革命后才掌握政權的技術官僚在過去幾天里把烏克蘭局勢描述為基本穩定且充滿機遇——至少在公開場合是這樣說的——他們極力聲明，不會和俄羅斯發生武力沖突。 ????說這番話可能只是給自己壯膽：他們的期望是，如果保持鎮定，災難就不會降臨到自己頭上。俄羅斯的軍隊數量是烏克蘭的四倍，幾乎可以肯定，雙方的任何軍事對抗都將以俄方勝利而告終。 ????但盡管如此，烏克蘭新政府安撫人心的態度和歐美外交機構的躁動不安形成了鮮明對比。這場危機讓東西方關系陷入了蘇聯解體25年來最為緊張的狀態，歐美官員正在匆匆忙忙地尋找化解危機的辦法。 ????周六上午，烏克蘭方面再次傳遞出保持冷靜的信息——烏克蘭代理外交部長安德里?杰希察在基輔和記者見面時做了這樣的表態。杰希察是一位經驗豐富的外交官，在加拿大阿爾伯塔大學（University of Alberta）獲得政治學博士學位。他在親俄派總統維克托?亞努科維奇逃離烏克蘭后出任代理外長。此前，烏克蘭的大規?？棺h活動已經持續了幾個月。2月22日，烏克蘭安全部隊打死了約80名抗議者，亞努科維奇隨后被趕下了臺。 ????杰希察在周六表示，原定于3月16日舉行地方公投的克里米亞絕不可能通過投票脫離烏克蘭、加入俄羅斯。盡管已有無數克里米亞人告訴記者，他們打算為脫離烏克蘭投上一票，杰希察聽起來仍然信心十足?？死锩讈啺雿u緊鄰俄羅斯，1954年之前一直是俄羅斯領土——時任蘇聯領導人的尼基塔?赫魯曉夫把這個地區送給了那時還是蘇聯加盟共和國的烏克蘭。杰希察說：“克里米亞現在是烏克蘭領土，以后也是烏克蘭領土。烏克蘭邊境不可侵犯?！钡麤]有說明哪些具體因素或者政治方案能為這番話提供后盾。 ????要制定清晰的策略，烏克蘭方面面臨的問題之一是可供他們選擇的方案極為有限。 ????雖然歐美官員表示克里米亞的公投不符合國際法，但當地新組建的親俄羅斯政府似乎已經下定了決心，而且烏克蘭方面看來幾乎沒有辦法來阻止這次公投。一位記者問，在這場引起全世界領導人關注的風波中，烏克蘭是不是更多地是一個受害者，而不是參與者，杰希察似乎一時語塞。隨后，他說道，這次公投沒有得到烏克蘭認可，按國際法應該判定為不合法行為，“唯一的抗議途徑就是宣布公投結果無效?！睘蹩颂m通過這種抗議就能保住克里米亞嗎？杰希察沒有說明這個問題。 ????杰希察告訴記者，美國國務卿約翰?特里上周建議組建“聯絡小組”，烏克蘭相信，它將使烏克蘭和俄羅斯得以就克里米亞局勢進行面對面的協商。然而，截至目前雙方還沒有落實直接對話問題。2月底，克里在羅馬對記者表示，這樣的會面要取決于“俄羅斯進行磋商的意愿”。 ????上周六，又有約70輛俄羅斯軍車進入克里米亞。烏克蘭國防部估算，目前俄羅斯已在克里米亞駐軍1.8萬人左右。美國總統奧巴馬和歐盟領導人都表示，俄羅斯的干預是違法行為，他們都贊成對俄羅斯實施制裁。 ????除了克里米亞危機，烏克蘭官員在談到關乎烏克蘭前途的經濟問題時幾乎沒有表現出焦急情緒，令人感到好奇。原因也許是歐美方面已經在過去幾周承諾為烏克蘭政府提供數十億美元的貸款和援助。 ????盡管如此，今年烏克蘭格里夫尼亞的匯率已經下跌了近20%。同時，去年秋天爆發大規模示威活動以來，烏克蘭的外匯儲備據信已經急劇減少?？棺h示威導致了亞努科維奇政權的垮臺，而引發抗議活動的原因是他拒絕和歐盟簽署旨在加強雙邊貿易關系的聯系國協定（Association Agreement）。 ????盡管國內金融局勢嚴峻，烏克蘭新任經濟發展部長、曾在亞特蘭大埃默里大學（Emory University）獲得MBA學位的巴維爾?舍列梅塔上周四在基輔告訴記者，烏政府的目標是“實現中期高增長”，而且烏克蘭的經濟狀況遠好于五年前。 ????烏克蘭亟待解決的經濟問題之一是俄羅斯可能切斷對烏克蘭的天然氣供應。2009年初就曾出現過這種情況，當時造成數百萬烏克蘭人在冬季氣溫低于零度的情況下飽受嚴寒之苦。 ????針對這次的經濟危機，俄羅斯能源巨頭——俄羅斯天然氣工業股份公司（Gazprom）首席執行官阿列克謝?米勒威脅要切斷對烏克蘭的天然氣供應，原因是烏方尚未支付2月份的費用。烏克蘭高度依賴俄羅斯天然氣，而且由于烏克蘭地處西歐和俄羅斯之間，從俄羅斯輸往西歐的天然氣中有25%左右要經過架設在烏克蘭境內的管道。 ????不過，外長杰希察對Gazprom的威脅不以為然，聲稱沒有什么可擔心的。上周六，杰希察和記者見面時說：“如果俄羅斯要切斷天然氣供應，沒關系。我們可以考慮其他資源，比如木材?！笨磥磉@番話是杰希察即興而發，事先幾乎沒有考慮。他還說：“很簡單，不供熱我們也過得下去，因為春天已經來了。所以我們非常樂觀?！保ㄘ敻恢形木W） ????譯者：Charlie ???? |
????With Russia threatening to wage war in Ukraine's southern peninsula of Crimea and annex the Black Sea territory, you would think that the country's new government would sound panicked about the precarious political state of their country. ????In that, you would be wrong. Instead, the official message in Kiev is: Don't worry, stay calm. ????Over the past few days, the technocrats thrust into office by last month's revolution have, at least in public, portrayed their country as largely stable and bursting with opportunities, as they significantly downplay the prospect of a violent conflict with Moscow. ????Their tone might well be a matter of whistling in the dark: A hope that if they remain calm, no disaster will befall them. Russia's military has four times the number of troops as Ukraine, leaving Moscow the near-certain winner in any fight. ????Yet even so, the reassuring attitude from Ukraine's new leaders stands in marked contrast to the diplomatic frenzy in Washington and Europe, where Western officials have scrambled to find a way to roll back the crisis—the deepest East-West tensions since the Soviet Union collapsed a quarter-century ago. ????Ukraine's latest message of calm came on Saturday morning, when the country's acting Foreign Minister Andriy Deshchytsa addressed reporters in Kiev. Deshchytsa, a seasoned diplomat with a Ph.D. in political science from the University of Alberta in Canada, was appointed after the Russia-friendly president Viktor Yanukovych fled for his life. He was driven from office after months of giant demonstrators ended with security forces killing about 80 protesters on February 22. ????On Saturday, Deshchytsa dismissed any possibility that Crimea would vote to break away from Ukraine and join Russia, when that region holds a local referendum on its status on March 16. Deshchytsa sounded confident, even though countless Crimeans have told journalists that they intend to vote for secession. The peninsula adjoins Russia, and was part of Russia until 1954, when Soviet leader Nikita Krushchev gifted it to Ukraine, then a Soviet republic. "Crimea is and will remain Ukrainian land," Deshchytsa said, offering no specifics or political plan to back up his statement. "The borders of Ukraine are inviolable." ????Part of the problem for Ukrainian officials in forging a coherent strategy, is that their options are extremely limited. ????Although U.S. and E.U. officials have deemed the referendum in Crimea illegal under international law, the new Russian-aligned local government seems determined to proceed with the vote, and there appears to be little way for Ukraine to stop it. When one reporter asked Deshchytsa whether Ukraine was more of a victim than a player in the drama that has gripped world leaders, he seemed at first unable to answer. The referendum, he said, would be ruled illegal under international law, since Ukraine has not endorsed it. "There is no other way to protest but to say that the results will not be valid," he said. Yet he failed to explain how that would keep Crimea as part of Ukraine. ????Deshchytsa told reporters Ukraine was confident that a "contact group" proposed last week by Sec. of State John Kerry, would allow Ukraine and Russia to negotiate face-to-face over Crimea's status. So far, however, no direct talks have been set, and on Thursday, Kerry told reporters in Rome that such a meeting would depend on "Russia's willingness to do this." ????About 70 more Russian military troop carriers rolled into Crimea on Saturday, and Ukraine's Ministry of Defense estimated that Moscow now has about 18,000 soldiers in the peninsula. Russia's intervention has been deemed illegal by President Obama and E.U. leaders, all of whom have voted to impose sanctions against Russia. ????Away from the Crimea crisis, Ukraine's officials display curiously little anxiety, when discussing the other issue on which the country's future depends: Its economy. That might be because E.U. and U.S. officials have in the past week committed to billions of dollars in fresh loans and grants to Kiev. ????Even so, the local currency has fallen nearly 20% this year, while the country's foreign currency reserves are believed to have dropped sharply, since the giant demonstrations began last Fall. The uprising collapsed Yanukovych's regime after he refused to sign an "association agreement" with the E.U., which would have increased trade links with Europe. ????Despite the country's dire financial state, Ukraine's new Minister of Economic Development, Pavlo Seremeta, who has an MBA from Emory University in Atlanta, told reporters in Kiev on Thursday that the government was aiming for "high growth in the medium term," and that Ukraine's economy was in far better shape than it was five years ago. ????One urgent economic issue facing Ukraine is the prospect that Russia might disrupt its gas supplies, as it did in early 2009, when it left millions of Ukrainians freezing through sub-zero winter temperatures. ????In an echo of that economic crisis, Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller on Friday threatened to halt the Russian energy giant's gas flows to Ukraine, saying that the country had failed to pay its February bill. Ukraine is heavily dependent on Russian gas, and about 25% of Western Europe's natural gas flows from Russia through the pipelines that cross Ukraine, since the huge country straddles the two regions. ????Still, Ukraine's Foreign Minister Deshchytsa brushed off Gazprom's threats, saying that they were nothing to worry about. "If Russia cuts the gas supply, no problem," he told reporters on Saturday. "We will probably just look for other resources. Wood," he said, appearing to speak off the cuff, with little forethought about his words. "Simply, we can stay without heat, because there is Spring on the streets. So we are very optimistic." |
