IMF總裁談美國債務危機：權宜之計有后患

????對于近來已造成美國政府關閉15天的這場政治混戰，如今看來最可能的結果是對美債上限進行短期調整。但國際貨幣基金組織（International Monetary Fund）總裁克里斯蒂娜?拉加德周二表示，即便美國國會能批準調高美債上限，也絲毫不能打消外界對美國經濟領導地位的質疑。

????拉加德警告稱，如果采取權益之計，將來美國國會終將“重頭再來”。再過兩天美國就將喪失償還債務能力，美國國會看起來可能很快就會達成一致，暫時讓美國政府重新開門，并將借款授權至少再延續幾個月。拉加德表示，這將不可避免地“重新點燃(幾周來困擾全球政策制定者的)不安、緊張與焦慮的情緒”。

????拉加德是周二晚間在華盛頓出席《財富》（Fortune）最具影響力女性峰會時發表上述講話的。與此同時，華盛頓僵局毫無緩解跡象。她警告稱，如果議員們找不到一種避免突破債務上限的方法，可能觸發全球經濟混亂?！斑@是可能發生的最嚴重事件，”拉加德說?！叭绻惶幚?，不解決這個問題，結果將非常非常嚴重——不只是對美國?！?/p>

????發表上述評論前，拉加德近期曾公開警告稱，不能達成一致將“對整個世界造成巨大傷害”。其他全球領導人也應和了她的擔憂。在上周末進行的IMF年度會議上，約300名財長和各大央行行長被召集在一起探討如何增強經濟復蘇。但他們探討的并不是全球經濟脆弱的增長前景，“他們滿腦子都是美國（債務上限之爭）何時結束？”

????周二在談到歐洲政治進程時，拉加德帶來了一些令人振奮的消息。她說：“馬里奧?德拉基（歐洲央行行長）的工作極其出色?！痹噲D將18個國家用單一貨幣和單一的財政政策組合連結起來，難度可想而知。她大笑著說道：“這可不容易?！钡a充說：“他們不會因為缺乏勇氣就放手不管。他們最終會鼓起勇氣來應對這個挑戰。這是一項巨大的挑戰?！?/p>

????至于美國，拉加德支持雙管齊下：“我簡單概括為，一快一慢?！薄耙豢臁笔侵敢杆俨扇⌒袆?，控制必要的支出項目和通脹?！叭绻徊扇∪魏涡袆?，這些問題將會在2020年困擾美國經濟，”拉加德表示。而“一慢”是指不要進行太大范圍或太過激進的支出縮減，因為它可能會阻礙經濟復蘇。

????拉加德表示，失業將越來越成為一個關鍵性的問題。美國的狀況自此次危機以來已有顯著改善。失業率已經從10%下降到了7.3%。但增長仍舊脆弱，特別是對于一個快速轉變的經濟?！拔艺J為，我們正在面臨巨大轉變，”她說，未來“（美國人）最能夠充分就業。否則，我們將不僅僅面對臨經濟問題，還將面對社會問題?！?/p>

????拉加德是八國集團（G8）成員國中的首位女性財長，并于2011年成為IMF首位女性領導人。她曾經表示不希望在公司董事會中為女性設置配額，但后來她改變這個立場。她說：“你看，這種做法起到了效果?！钡瑫r也表示：“配額不應成為長期存在，因為我們可以做得比這更好?！?/p>

????在推動女性政策大步發展前，拉加德的經歷也很多姿多彩。她曾經在美國惡魔島（Alcatraz Island）監獄短暫地擔任過一段時間的法國游客導游，曾經被法國一所精英學校兩度拒絕(一次是因為她不夠用心：“那年我戀愛了”,還有一次是因為她錯過了截止日期)，她還是一位受過良好訓練的花樣游泳運動員。游泳那段日子給她帶來的啟示是：“咬緊牙關，面露微笑?！?/p>

????這個技巧在近年的政治環境中無疑非常管用。（財富中文網）? ?

????A short-term debt-ceiling fix now appears to be the most likely outcome of the prolonged political mud fight that has shut down the government for the last 15 days. But even if lawmakers do manage to pass an extension, it will do little to resolve the larger questions over U.S. economic leadership, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde said Tuesday.

????Lagarde warned that a stopgap measure would bring lawmakers "back to the drawing board once again." With only two more days to go before the nation loses the ability to manage its debts, Congress appears to be lurching toward a deal that would temporarily reopen the government and extend the country's borrowing authority for at least a few more months. That, Lagarde said, will inevitably "reactivate the same sort of trepidation and anxiety and worry" that has gripped world policy makers for weeks already.

????Lagarde spoke at Fortune's Most Powerful Women Summit in D.C. on Tuesday night against a backdrop of so-far unyielding partisan gridlock in Washington. She warned that if lawmakers cannot find a way to avoid a debt-ceiling breach, it could trigger global economic chaos. "It's the most serious thing that could happen," Lagarde said. "If it's not addressed, if it's not tackled, it will be very, very damaging – not only for the U.S."

????Lagarde's comments come after her recent public warnings that failure to reach a deal would wreak "massive disruption the world over." Other world leaders have echoed her concerns. During the IMF's annual meetings this weekend some 300 ministers of finance and governors of major central banks convened to talk about how to bolster the recovery. But instead of talking about the global economy's fragile growth prospects, "The only thing that was on their mind was, 'When is this [debt-ceiling fight] going to end?'"

????Lagarde Tuesday had more cheerful things to say about the European political process. "Mario Draghi [president of the European Central Bank] has done an extraordinary job," she said. Trying to unite 18 countries with a single currency and a single set of fiscal policies, is incredibly difficult: "It's a job," she cracked. But she added, "they're not going to let it drop like that because of lack of courage. The courage will eventually be there to respond to the challenge. It's a huge challenge."

????As for the U.S., Lagarde espouses a two-pronged approach: "I summarize it for my simple mind as, slow down but hurry up." "Hurry up" by taking measures quickly to rein in entitlement spending and inflation. Those issues "will come to haunt the economy in 2020 if nothing is done before," Lagarde said. And "slow down" by not making any cuts so sweeping or drastic that they would thwart a recovery.

????Unemployment will be an increasingly critical issue, Lagarde said. There has been marked progress in the U.S. since the crisis. The unemployment rate has fallen from 10% to 7.3%. But gains are still fragile, particularly in a rapidly changing economy. "I think we are facing huge transitions," she said. Going forward, "[Americans] had better have jobs, otherwise we're not just facing economic problems, we'll be facing social problems."

????Lagarde was the first woman appointed finance minister in a G8 country, and became the first female chief of the IMF in 2011. She has spoken previously about not wanting quotas for women on corporate boards, though she later reversed her stance. "Look it's working," she said. But she added that "quotas should not be a long-lasting feature because we can do better than that."

????Even before she was making strides for women in the policy world, Lagarde had a colorful history. She was briefly a guide for French tourists at Alcatraz Island prison, got turned down from an elite French school twice (once because she was distracted: "I was in love that year," and once because she missed the deadline), and she was an accomplished synchronized swimmer. The takeaway from her swimming days: "Grit your teeth and smile."

????In politics lately, it's a skill that has no doubt proved particularly useful.