全球經濟擔憂加劇之際，金價緣何大跌

????在金價跌至兩年新低之際，一個悖論也隨之出現：金價下跌反映出美國經濟方面的好消息，但它也意味著來自世界其他地區的壞消息，而黃金作為避險投資品種正失去往日的光彩。

????經過連續11年的上漲后，黃金價格于去年10月份開始穩步下降。近來金價跌勢加劇，上周五跌幅達到5%，正式陷入熊市。周一投資者繼續拋售黃金頭寸，金價一度跌至每盎司1361.70美元，跌幅超過9%。

????歷史上，許多投資者在經濟形勢嚴峻時期偏愛投資黃金。在全球金融危機爆發后的幾年里，金價持續飆升，之后歐洲出現債務危機，金價繼續攀升。

????金價在2011年9月觸及峰值，報每盎司逾1900美元，但之后已經累計下跌了24%，受美國經濟出現復蘇跡象影響。與此同時，美國住房價格穩步攀升。自今年年初以來，美國股市屢創新高，因投資者風險偏好升溫。不過，盡管美國經濟形勢似乎較好，但是中國和歐洲經濟的一些跡象令人不安，以至于投資者不那么相信投資黃金可以讓他們免受損失。

????上周金價大跌，因市場擔心身陷債務危機的塞浦路斯將會大舉出售其黃金儲備。根據歐盟的救助計劃要求，塞浦路斯需要自行籌集一部分資金。這促使投資者擔心其他債臺高筑的歐元區國家可能也會拋售部分黃金儲備，尤其是意大利、西班牙和葡萄牙。

????在周一中國公布弱于預期的第一季度經濟增速后，黃金拋盤繼續。中國和印度都是世界上首屈一指的黃金消費國。數據顯示，今年第一季度中國經濟同比增長7.7%，低于政府8%的增速目標，與曾經長達三十年的兩位數增速相差甚遠。投資者擔心手頭現金縮水的中國消費者可能會減少黃金消費。更重要的是，如果中國經濟增速繼續顯著放緩，那將影響全球經濟并打擊原材料出口國。過去十年里，由于中國需求激增，原材料出口國受益匪淺。

????在上周的一份報告中，高盛（Goldman Sachs）將其對黃金的三個月目標價由1615美元每盎司下調至1530美元每盎司，并將12個月目標價由1550美元每盎司下調至1390美元每盎司。此前，法國興業銀行（Societe Generale）在4月2日發布的研究報告中稱金價存在“泡沫”。法國興業銀行以及巴克萊銀行（Barclays）和瑞士信貸（Credit Suisse）等機構均預測2014年黃金均價將低于今年。

????可以肯定的是，看跌前景也有可能被夸大了。雖然德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）上周將其2013年目標金價下調至1637美元每盎司，該行仍然預計明年黃金均價能達到1810美元每盎司。

????經濟形勢差的時候，金價往往會走高。但考慮到中國和歐洲的經濟形勢，目前情況并非如此。金價未來的走勢可能會更復雜。皮特森國際經濟研究所（Peterson Institute for International Economics）資深研究員雅各布?芬克?柯克加德說，投資者也許因為塞浦路斯拋售黃金儲備的計劃而擔心其他歐洲國家也會效仿，但是這不太可能發生。

????柯克加德說：“它們目前都不存在像塞浦路斯那樣的嚴重財政壓力?！彼€說，不可否認的是，某個國家可能會決定宣布一個長期的、預先安排好的黃金出售計劃，時間跨越5到10年，和幾個歐盟（European Union）國家在幾年前的做法相似，但即使那樣似乎也不太可能。若要籌集迫切需要的現金，大多數歐洲國家有其他資產可以出售或私有化。

????最終，金價是否會繼續下滑很可能取決于中國以及部分歐洲國家是否能夠很好地應付任何新的重大問題。（財富中文網）

????譯者：默默

????As gold plunges to new two-year lows, a paradox has emerged: The decline reflects better news in the U.S. economy, but it also suggests bad news in other parts of the world as bullion loses its luster as a safe-haven investment.

????After rising for 11 consecutive years, the price of gold started falling steadily in October. Its downward spiral has intensified, with prices falling by 5% on Friday, officially entering bear market territory. The sell-off continued Monday, as prices dropped by more than 9% to $1,361.70 an ounce.

????Historically, many investors think of gold as an alternative investment when economic times get tough. The precious metal soared in the years following the financial crisis and continued rising as Europe dealt with its monstrous debt problems.

????Gold peaked in September 2011, trading at more than $1,900 an ounce, but prices have since fallen 24% on signs that the U.S. economy is recovering. Home prices have steadily risen. And since the start of the year, the U.S. stock market has soared to record highs as investors turned to riskier investments. But while the U.S. appears to be doing better, signs in China and Europe look so troubling that investors don't seem very convinced gold will guard them from losses.

????Last week, gold plunged on worries that debt-troubled Cyprus would sell a big chunk of its gold reserves to foot the bill for portions of a bailout. This has spurred fears that other European countries struggling with high debts, particularly Italy, Spain, and Portugal, might also sell some gold reserves.

????And on Monday, the sell-off continued after China -- the world's biggest buyer of gold besides India -- reported slower-than-expected growth. During the start of the year, the Chinese economy grew 7.7%, lower than the government's targeted 8% growth rate and by far a big drop from the double-digit annual growth it had seen over three decades. Investors worried that Chinese consumers, faced with less cash, may buy less gold. What's more, if China's economy continues to significantly slow, it will affect economies across the world and hurt exporters of raw materials that have come to demand on surging Chinese demand over the past decade.

????In a report last week, Goldman Sachs (GS) cut its three-month price target for an ounce of gold to $1,530 from $1,615 and lowered its 12-month forecast to $1,390 from $1,550. This followed Societe Generale's April 2 note calling gold a "bubble." The bank, along with Barclays (BCS) and Credit Suisse (CS), are among those forecasting lower average prices in 2014 than this year.

????To be sure, the bearish outlook could be overblown. While Deutsche Bank (DB) last week lowered its 2013 gold forecast to $1,637, it still expects prices to average $1,810 next year.

????Gold usually rises when economies aren't doing so well, but it's clear that hasn't been the case when factoring in China and Europe. And the direction of prices could get more complicated.Cyprus's plans to sell off gold reserves might have spawned investor worries that other European nations might follow, but that's unlikely to happen, says Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

????"None of them are in the acute fiscal stress that Cyprus is at the moment, and it would send a signal of desperation to go out and suddenly sell gold," Kirkegaard says. Admittedly, he adds, a country might decide to announce a long-term program spanning five to 10 years of prefixed gold sales, similar to what several European Union countries did years ago, but even that seems unlikely. Most European countries will have other things they can sell or privatize to come up with desperately needed cash.

????In the end, whether gold will continue its downward slide could very well hinge on how well China and parts of Europe might withstand any more major problems.