歐洲將拉響新的警報

????歐洲委員會（European Commission）上周五公布了冬季預測。根據預測，今年歐洲將面臨進一步的經濟萎縮以及債務狀況惡化的局面，到2014年（也可能是以后）將出現經濟復蘇和金融穩定。但結果真會是這樣嗎？

????我們首先來看看五個方面的官方數據：

????? 2012年收縮0.6%后，歐元區17個成員國的實際GDP預計將在2013年再度下降0.3%。因此，盡管預測的預算前景改善，歐元區成員國債務負擔將保持升勢，債務占GDP比值將再度上升2個百分點。與此同時，令人擔憂的失業情況將進一步惡化，整體失業率將從11.4%上升到12.2%。

????? 這些令人失望的預測不局限于陷入困境的外圍經濟體。歐元區核心最大的經濟體預計會出現輕微擴張（德國增長0.5%）或增長停滯（法國）。而在這個背景下，核心經濟體的失業率也將小幅上升。

????? 而被視為歐元區穩定關鍵的意大利和西班牙經濟將分別萎縮1.0%和1.4%。它將導致意大利失業率上升到11.6%，而西班牙失業率更將達到驚人的26.9%。

????? 歐元區內部將繼續面臨顯著的分化。愛沙尼亞預計將以3%的增速再次引領歐元區成員國經濟增長，而希臘則將以4.4%的經濟萎縮幅度再度成為經濟表現最差的成員國。

????? 最后，歐洲委員會預測2014年將出現顯著復蘇，盡管這個預測并沒有將財政政策立場可能發生的變化考慮在內。（塞浦路斯除外）具體來說，所有歐元區國家預計都將出現經濟增長，推動整個歐元區經濟增長率達到1.4%。這個預測令人鼓舞，但仍不足以顯著改變失業形勢。

????如果這些經濟預測是可信的，那么2013年預計會出現更大的社會和政治脆弱性問題。具體而言，席卷歐洲的普遍不滿情緒將會持續。街頭抗議仍將是反復出現的熱點問題，尤其是在外圍經濟體。而傳統的政治結構也會承受更大的壓力，短期內不大可能出現能持久的替代方案。

????這樣的低迷形勢持續得越久，歐洲央行（European Central Bank）尋求保持金融穩定（到目前為止是成功的）所面臨的挑戰會越大。它強化了一種觀點，即歐洲央行可以為到達更好的目的地提供橋梁，但它本身并沒有辦法提供這個目的地。

????所有這一切都應該為各成員國政府以及布魯塞爾的歐洲委員會總部和法蘭克福的歐洲央行敲響警鐘。

????The European Commission (EC) published its winter projections Friday. They point to further economic contraction and worsening debt dynamics this year giving way to recovery and financial stabilization in 2014 (and presumably beyond). But will they?

????Let us start with the official numbers, focusing on five items:

????? After contracting in real terms by 0.6% in 2012, the GDP of the 17-member eurozone is projected to decline by another 0.3% in 2013. Accordingly, and despite forecasting an improving budgetary outlook, the debt burden would maintain its upward trajectory, rising by another 2 percentage points of GDP. Meanwhile, the alarming unemployment situation would worsen, with the overall rate increasing from 11.4% to 12.2%.

????? These disappointing projections are not limited to the struggling peripheral economies. The largest economies at the core of the eurozone are expected to expand marginally (Germany at 0.5%) or stagnate (France). And with this, joblessness in the core would edge higher.

????? Italy and Spain, viewed correctly by many as central to the stability of the eurozone, would contract by 1.0% and 1.4%, respectively. This would push unemployment up to 11.6% in Italy and to a stunning 26.9% in Spain.

????? Intra-eurozone dispersion would remain significant. With a projected 3% growth rate, Estonia would again lead the pack while Greece, expected to contract by another 4.4% would come last once more.

????? Finally, the EC forecasts a notable recovery in 2014, though this does not incorporate likely changes in the fiscal policy stance. Specifically, every eurozone country (except Cyprus) is projected to grow, with the area's growth rate coming in at 1.4% -- encouraging, though not enough to dramatically change the unemployment picture.

????If these projections are to be believed, they point to greater socio-political fragility in 2013. Specifically, the wave of popular dissatisfaction sweeping across Europe would persist. Street protests would remain a recurrent theme, especially in the peripheral economies. And traditional political structures would come under greater pressure, without a durable alternative emerging any time soon.

????The longer such malaise persists, the greater the challenges facing the European Central Bank in its (so far successful) quest to maintain financial stability – reinforcing the view that the ECB can provide a bridge to a better destination but cannot, on its own, deliver this destination.

????All this should be ringing loud alarm bells in national capitals, as well as in the EC's headquarters in Brussels and the ECB's Frankfurt.