全球最大對沖基金2012失手之謎

????對沖基金巨頭橋水聯合基金（Bridgewater Associates）及其創始人雷?達里奧可能有一個問題需要想想：這個家伙真的值每年20億美元嗎?2012年，投資者向這家公司支付的管理費大概就有這么多。

????這個問題在過去12個月變得更加尖銳，特別是在全美一些退休基金管理公司中間。過去十年半來，退休基金一直在向達里奧和他的公司輸送資金。如今，橋水聯合基金的資產管理總額已達1,420億美元，是全美最大的對沖基金。

????原因是2012年達里奧的表現非常差。有些報道稱，去年大部分時候他都不走運。博客ZeroHedge似乎有一份橋水聯合基金最近的致客戶函，詳細闡述了2012年的投資表現。達里奧的旗艦對沖基金Pure Alpha全年僅上漲0.8%，與2012年總體市場表現相差甚遠。以標準普爾500指數來看，股市漲了13%。債市漲幅超過4%。即便是經理人薪酬遠低于奧利奧的普通共同基金，僅第四季度就上漲了0.9%，相比橋水全年的表現也略勝一籌。全年而言，股票共同基金平均上漲14%，輕松擊敗達里奧。

????當然，每位投資者都有流年不利的時候。達里奧自然也可能去年就遇上了。即便是去年一年表現不佳，他的投資記錄依然居于前列。自1991年以來，Pure Alpha平均每年上漲14%。2009年，《財富》雜志（Fortune）首次向公眾介紹了達里奧和他的成功故事，在主流媒體中是第一家。因此，我猜也許你會認為這不過是流年不利，每年20億美元也沒什么。（在好的年份，橋水收取的管理費更要高得多。2011年它的旗艦基金上漲了20%，橋水拿到管理費約60億美元。)

????但如果仔細分析達里奧，似乎2012年不完全是一次意外失手。

????達里奧總是認為，大多數人對多元化的理解有誤。他們的投資組合有60%是股票，其余都是債券，或者其他類似的配置比例，僅此而已。達里奧表示，股票的風險性歷來遠高于債券，如果你真的想要實現投資組合的多元化，就必須把更多的資金放入債券，而不是股票。

????據《華爾街日報》（Wall Street Journal）報道，達里奧向美國各地的機構投資者們宣揚他所謂的風險平價策略，吸引眾多大型退休基金提高杠桿比率，增倉債券。但他們這樣做的時候，正是很多人擔心債券市場的泡沫可能正在形成的時候。

????聽上去令人不安，但這不是真正的問題所在。畢竟，達里奧說的是多元化。最近，他加入了其他一些人的陣營，開始告誡投資者要警惕債市被高估。

????Here's what needs to be asked about giant hedge fund Bridgewater Associates and its founder Ray Dalio: Is this guy really worth $2 billion a year? That's roughly the amount investors paid his firm in management fees in 2012.

????That question got a lot tougher in the past 12 months for pension fund managers around the country, who for the past decade and a half have been funneling cash to Dalio and his firm, which now manages $142 billion - making it the largest hedge fund in the U.S.

????That's because Dalio had a lousy 2012. By some reports, he was down for most of the year. Blog ZeroHedge appears to have a copy of Bridgewater's most recent client letter, which details how it did in 2012. Dalio's flagship hedge fund, Pure Alpha, ended the year up just 0.8%. That was much worse than the market in 2012. Stocks, as measured by the S&P 500, were up 13%. Bonds were up just over 4%. Even the average mutual fund manager, who gets paid far less than Dalio, was up 0.9% in the fourth quarter alone, just slightly better than Bridgewater did all year. For the full year, stock mutual fund managers were up 14%, handily beating Dalio.

????Of course, every investor has off years. And Dalio is certainly entitled to one. Even with last year's flub, he still has one of the best track records of any investor. Pure Alpha has been up an average of 14% a year since 1991. Fortune, back in 2009, was one of the first major publications to profile Dalio and his success. So you could almost shrug off the $2 billion for an off year, I guess. (In good years, Dalio's company gets much, much more. In 2011, when his flagship fund was up 20%, his firm took in around $6 billion in fees.)

????But a close look at Dalio suggests 2012 could be more than an anomaly.

????Dalio generally believes most people get diversification wrong. They hold 60% of their portfolio in stocks and the rest in bonds, or some similar split, and call it a day. Dalio says stocks have historically been far riskier than bonds, so if you truly want to diversify your portfolio you have to put far more money in bonds than stocks.

????According to the Wall Street Journal, Dalio preaches what he calls risk parity to institutional investors around the country, and has gotten a number of large pension funds to lever up their portfolios and buy more bonds. And they're doing this at a time when everyone appears to be growing more and more worried that the bond market could be in a bubble.

????That sounds scary, but that's not the real problem. Dalio is, after all, about diversification. And he has recently joined the chorus of people who are warning that the bond market is overvalued.