加州：中國對美投資門戶

????加州吸引到的中國投資者數量已超過了美國其他任何一個州。亞洲協會（Asia Society）最新的研究報告預測，未來十年，“黃金之州”將成為中國投資進入美國的門戶，主要是得益于加州繁榮的科技行業。

????這對于加州應當是個好消息。近些年加州面臨的預算緊張和失業狀況比美國大多數地區都更嚴重。今年夏季，加州有三個城市遞交了破產申請，震動了債券投資者。

????雖然中國投資者并不是是要拯救加州于金融危機之中，但研究報告強調了未來加州爭取所需新投資的可能性和迫切性。

????研究人員榮大聶和韓其洛分析了過去十年中國在美國的投資情況。從2000年至今，美國吸引了超過500筆中國投資，總值164億美元。其中，加州獲得了156筆，占近三分之一。加州獲得投資總額13億美元，投資交易規模不一定最大，但從獲得投資的交易數量來看，加州的吸引力超過美國其他任何一個州。南加州地區以69筆投資、總額6.14億美元占據榜首，其次分別是舊金山灣區和硅谷/南灣地區。

????中國投資者進駐加州或許并不足怪。首先，加州和中國的淵源由來己久——加州是擁有美籍華裔人口最多的州之一。加州的經濟規模在美國各州中居首，令投資者將其視為進入美國其他地區的門戶。更準確地說，加州是美國一些科技巨頭公司的總部所在地——而科技正是很多中國私營企業希望投資的一個領域。

????分析2000年迄今的投資情況，可以看到中國將大部分資金投向了軟件和IT行業，隨后依次是休閑和娛樂、通訊設備與服務、電子設備和元器件以及可替代/可再生能源。特別是網游已成為中國公司投資的熱門。值得一提的收購包括2011年騰訊(Tencent)收購Riot Games，2010年盛大游戲（Shanda Games）收購Mochi Media，2011年完美世界（Perfect World）收購Cryptic Studios。

????但可以肯定的是，這些投資相對于加州的經濟規模來說依然微乎其微。加州詳細的外國投資數據仍然無法獲得。但韓其洛表示，如果加州反映的是全美趨勢，可以說中國扮演的“角色非常之小”。雖然歐債危機持續，趨勢或許會改變，但日本、德國、英國和加拿大等國家歷來在美國吸引的外國投資領域占據著主導地位。

????榮大聶和韓其洛估計，未來十年加州可能吸引10億至600億美元的中國投資。

????這是相當大的一個區間，可能成真，也可能成空，結果取決于幾個非常不確定的因素能否正常推進。加州的財政困境不僅會阻止中國投資者，也會讓一般投資者望而卻步。美國市政府幾乎從來沒有出現過債務違約，但斯多克頓、圣伯納丁諾和馬莫斯湖三個城市在今年夏季宣布破產，已促使評級公司對加州其他城市給予不那么樂觀的前景。

????上周二，穆迪投資者服務公司（Moody's Investors Service）宣布，將審查加州30個城市的各種債券評級，包括圣莫妮卡、薩克拉門托和弗雷斯諾。在這項聲明發布前，穆迪在8月份的報告中預計將出現更多的城市破產和違約，同時還警告稱，一些城市可能申請破產以解決預算赤字問題，放棄對債券持有人的承諾。

????California has attracted more Chinese investors than any U.S. state. And in the coming decade, thanks largely to California's robust tech industry, the Golden State is poised to be America's gateway for Chinese investment, according to a new report by the Asia Society.

????This could be viewed as good news for California, which in recent years has dealt with strained budgets and joblessness worse than most other parts of the country. Over the summer, bond investors were stunned when three California cities filed for bankruptcy.

????While Chinese investors aren't exactly going to save California from financial malaise, the report underscores the state's potentials and its position to court new money in a place that needs it. Badly.

????Researchers Daniel Rosen and Thilo Hanemann analyzed Chinese investments into the U.S. over the past decade. Since 2000, the U.S. drew more than 500 deals worth $16.4 billion. Of that, California accounted for nearly one-third, or 156 deals. At $1.3 billion, California isn't necessarily locking in the priciest investments, but in terms of the number of deals, the state has attracted more than any U.S. state. With 69 deals totaling $614 million, southern California leads Chinese investments, followed by the San Francisco Bay Area and Silicon Valley/South Bay regions.

????It's perhaps not all that surprising to find Chinese investors in California. For one, the state has had a long history with China -- it has one of the highest Chinese American populations in the U.S. California is also the largest economy of any U.S. state, and lead investors view it as a gateway to the rest of the country. More specifically, California is home to some of the country's biggest tech companies -- an area that many of China's private firms wish to invest in.

????A look at investments since 2000 show the Chinese poured most of their funds into software and IT, followed by leisure and entertainment, communications equipment and services, electronic equipment and components, and alternative/renewable energy. Online gaming, in particular, has grown into a popular investment for Chinese companies, with notable acquisitions including Riot Games by Tencent in 2011, Mochi Media by Shanda Games in 2010, and Cryptic Studios by Perfect World in 2011.

????To be sure, these investments are tiny compared to the size of California's economy. Detailed statistics of foreign investments in California specifically are unavailable. But if the state reflected trends nationwide, China would be "a very small player," Hanemann said. While trends might change given Europe's ongoing debt crisis, countries like Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Canada have historically dominated foreign investments into the U.S.

????In the coming decade, though, the Golden State could attract $1 billion to $60 billion worth of Chinese investments, Rosen and Hanemann estimate.

????That's quite a range, which may or may not play out, depending on whether a few very uncertain things go right. Consider California's troubled finances, which could deter not just Chinese investors but investors in general. Municipalities rarely ever default, but bankruptcies declared by Stockton, San Bernardino, and Mammoth Lakes over the summer have prompted credit agencies to consider a much less rosy outlook for the Golden State's other cities.

????On Tuesday, Moody's Investors Service announced it would scrutinize the ratings of various types of bonds in 30 California cities, including Santa Monica, Sacramento, and Fresno. The announcement follows an August report in which the agency predicted more municipal bankruptcies and defaults, warning that some cities are turning to bankruptcies to tackle budget deficits and abandon promises to bondholders.