西班牙告急，歐元命懸一線

????看起來，債券市場對西班牙的寬限和容忍已經到了頭。由于擔心馬德里政府可能不久將需要據信約3,000億歐元的巨額主權救助，周一西班牙主權債券的收益率大大突破了7%的關鍵水平，最高升至7.57%。歐美股市聞聲下挫，標普指數（S&P）當日跌幅達到了2.5%。

????不久之前，歐元區領導人剛剛批準了一項1,000億歐元的救助計劃，用于拯救岌岌可危的西班牙銀行業。但此后事情并沒有向好的方面轉變，反而越來越糟。

????令人難以接受的一個意外結果是，銀行業救助計劃似乎加快了西班牙需要全面主權救助這一天的到來，因為救助計劃打消了投資者對于任何類型西班牙債券的需求。它不僅影響到了主權債券，也將西班牙17個自治區關在了債券市場外面，迫使它們向馬德里政府尋求救助。如果西班牙不能很快從歐元區伙伴國那里獲得亟需的全面救助，歐元很可能就此壽終正寢。

????市場遲早會看穿馬德里的把戲。在1,000億歐元的銀行業救助計劃中，西班牙政府事實上是把銀行損失社會化，將損失從銀行賬面轉到了政府的資產負債表上。如果這還不夠糟糕，它還迫使這些銀行的次級債券持有人接受投資減值，卻保優先債券持有人全身而退。

????沒錯，公司破產時股票和次級債券持有人在償付名單中排在最末。但這里的情況不同。西班牙銀行業次級債券的持有人大多（占三分之二）是小投資者，而且往往都是聽了個人理財顧問的建議，才買下這些被認為是安全的債券。隨著今年西班牙股市下跌三分之一，西班牙投資者損失慘重。而且，此時正值西班牙失業率達到類似大蕭條時期的25%之際。

????不過，把這些損失推給小投資者，西班牙政府可是打錯了算盤，西班牙的地方和自治區債券市場基本上都受本地投資者的支持。西班牙投資者在銀行救助計劃中被西班牙政府坑了一道后，躲著政府債券的行為可以理解。國際投資者和大型養老基金離開西班牙市場已近一年，市場中事實上已沒有什么投資者可以來買下所有這些西班牙當地債券。

????西班牙努力穩定局面，自治區已創建自己的180億歐元救助機制。但180億歐元將通過出售更多主權債券來提供資金，當前7.57%的收益率可能難以承受。

????這也許是為什么市場預計西班牙將很快需要歐盟全面救助的原因。目前，西班牙政府負責償付自治區和自身的債務。但西班牙的債務/GDP比率沒有準確反映其主權風險狀況，因為它沒有將自治區的幾十億歐元表外項目計算在內。由于這些債務事實上得到西班牙政府的支持，市場估計馬德里將需要接過這些債務的償還責任。據西班牙銀行（Bank of Spain）稱，如果加上這些表外項目，西班牙的債務/GDP比率將從68.5%增至87%。如果再加上1,000億歐元的銀行業救助方案，這一比率將躍升至96%左右。

????西班牙政府無法長時間承擔7.57%的融資利率，更別提還要為17個自治區提供支持。該國已經讓歐洲央行（European Central Bank）購買其主權債券來降低利率，但利率水平仍然太高。歐洲債券交易員們告訴《財富》雜志（ Fortune）， 他們預計歐洲央行將通過實施新一輪量化寬松措施，努力平息這種混亂局面，在歐洲被稱為長期再融資計劃（LTRO）的量化寬松基本上就是“開動印鈔機”的花哨說法。希望銀行體系中所有這些額外的資金都將提振投資和借貸，降低債券收益率并紓解西班牙政府的壓力。

????但歐洲央行能做的也相當有限。它不能永遠為西班牙債務提供融資，就像馬德里政府不能永遠都為各個自治區提供債務融資一樣。如果西班牙不能很快重啟債券市場，吸引私有投資者，它很快就會面臨違約。

????債券市場當然是在尋找一個解決歐元問題的長期有效方案，但歐元區領導人在這個問題上行動遲緩。與此同時，對西班牙進行大規模且強有力的主權救助將有助于穩定這些市場——至少短期內如此。這樣的救助將基本耗盡歐洲救助基金中的剩余資金，迫使歐元區成員國要么提供更多資金（這種可能性不大），要么最終攜手組建一個更緊密且更穩定的聯盟。無論哪種方式，看來歐元都與西班牙坐在同一條船上。

????譯者：早稻米

????It looks like the bond markets are done cutting Spain financial slack. Bond yields for Spanish sovereign debt broke well past the critical 7% mark Monday, hitting as high as 7.57%, on concerns that the government in Madrid will soon need a big sovereign bailout, thought to be around 300 billion euros. European and US stock markets fell on the news, with the S&P down 2.5% on the day.

????This all comes days after eurozone leaders approved a 100 billion euro bailout of Spain's crippled banking sector. But instead of things getting better, they have clearly just gotten worse.

????In a bitter twist of irony, it seems that the bank bailout may have actually hastened the need for a possible full sovereign bailout as it has crushed investor demand for any kind of Spanish debt. This not only affected the sovereign but has also locked the nation's 17 states or "regions" out of the bond market as well, forcing them to look to Madrid for a bailout of their own. If Spain doesn't receive a comprehensive and fair bailout from its eurozone partners soon, the euro could very well end here.

????It was only a matter of time before the markets caught on to Madrid's shell game. In its 100 billion euro bank bailout, the Spanish government essentially socialized bank losses by simply transferring those losses from the banks to the government's balance sheet. If that wasn't bad enough, it also forced the banks' subordinated bondholders to take a hit on the value of their investment, but allowed the senior debt holders to walk away with full value.

????In a corporate bankruptcy, it is true that equity holders and subordinated debt holders are at the bottom of the payout heap. But this is different. The subordinated bondholders in the nation's banks were mostly (around two-thirds) made up of small-time investors who bought that debt thinking it was safe, often on the advice of their personal financial advisors. With the Spanish stock market down by a third this year, the Spanish investor has really taken a hit. This comes on top of the nation's depression-like 25% unemployment rate.

????But in pushing the losses on the little guy, the Spanish government basically shot itself in the foot. That's because the local and regional bond markets in Spain are largely supported by local investors. After getting burned by the national government in the bank bailout, Spanish investors have understandably shunned government debt. With international investors and big pension funds out of the Spanish market for nearly a year, there is really no one left to buy up all that local Spanish debt.

????Spain has tried to calm the situation with its regions by creating its own 18-billion euro bailout mechanism. But those 18 billion euros will be financed by selling more sovereign debt, which, at 7.57% would be prohibitively expensive.

????That is partly why the market anticipates Spain will soon need a full on bailout from the EU. The national government is now responsible for covering the debts of its regions, as well as its own. It turns out that Spain's official debt-to-GDP ratio didn't give an accurate picture of the country's sovereign risk. That's because it didn't take into account the billions of euros of off-balance sheet items from its regions. Since those debts were implicitly backed by the national government, the market now believes that Madrid will need to take over the payments. Add in those off-balance sheet items and the nation's debt-to-GDP ratio jumps from 68.5% to 87%, according to the Bank of Spain. Top it off with the 100 billion euros bank bailout and the ratio jumps to around 96%.

????The national government cannot afford to finance its own debt at 7.57% for very long, let alone support its 17 regions as well. It already has the European Central Bank buying its debt to keep rates low but they are still too high. Traders in European debt tell Fortune that they believe the ECB will try to calm the melee by instituting another round of quantitative easing, which is known as LTRO in Europe, but which is still essentially just a fancy way of saying: "printing more money." The hope is that all this extra money in the system will boost investment and lending, lowering bond yields and taking the pressure off the national government.

????But there is a limit to what the ECB can do here. It simply cannot finance Spain's debt forever, just as Madrid cannot finance the debt of its regions forever. If Spain is unable to reopen its bond markets to private investors quickly, then it will soon be facing default.

????The bond markets are clearly looking for a real long term solution to the euro question, but eurozone leaders are slow in getting there. In the meantime, a large and powerful sovereign bailout of Spain would help stabilize the markets – at least in the short term. Such a bailout would essentially exhaust what's left of the European bailout fund, forcing eurozone members to either put up more money, which probably won't happen, or to finally work to form a closer and more stable union. Either way, it appears as if the euro stops here with Spain.