法國新政可能自毀長城

????法國政府的新預算和議程可能會讓風雨飄搖的法國經濟再添動蕩，引發惡性循環，最終導致法國銀行在華爾街四面楚歌，歐元區從此分崩離析。雖然新預算案也有可圈可點之處，但其中仍然存在太多的舉措可能將法國推入更深的經濟深淵。只要法國仍然希望平衡預算，繼續往前走，它就必須要對臃腫的官僚機構以及過于優厚的醫療和養老制度動點真格的，但這一切說起來容易做起來難。

????不管怎樣，社會黨（Socialist Party）領導的法國新政府掌握著政治資本和資源，能夠迅速有效地達成目標。但如果政黨意識形態超越理性，法國可能還是會逐步陷入與歐元區鄰國一樣的境地：最終也需要應對高得離譜的貸款利率和疲弱乏力的經濟。

????上周三，法國新任總理讓-馬克?埃羅公布了其所在的社會黨為應對法國經濟頑疾提出的方案的細節。由于社會黨目前執掌法國政府的執政與立法兩大機構，不管埃羅提交什么樣的方案，事實上都很有可能獲得通過。埃羅上任以來與法國新任總統弗朗西斯?奧朗德密切合作，已經簽署了很多具有爭議的措施，希望藉此增加法國政府收入，填補龐大的預算缺口。

????預算赤字在擁有17個成員國的歐元區內并不受歡迎，因為任何一個國家的負債都可能會影響到所有成員國共同貨幣，也就是歐元的價值。因此，歐元區規定成員國的年預算赤字最多只能占到年收入的3%左右。法國在執行這項規定方面一直有困難，它從上世紀70年代以來一直保持著高額預算赤字。

????新政府下令對法國經濟進行獨立調查，上周一公布的調查結果讓市場大吃一驚，因為法國預算赤字/GDP比例將達到5.2%左右，大大高于先前的預期。新一屆政府宣布縮減上屆保守派政府批準的、諸多不得人心的緊縮措施，此舉將導致預算缺口進一步擴大。另外，這屆政府終于開始直面法國經濟的現實，修正過于樂觀的經濟增長預期，從而也導致預算赤字攀升。法國政府現預計2012年法國經濟將增長0.3%，低于此前樂觀的0.7%。他們還將2013年的增長預期從1.75%調低到了1.2%。

????法國社會黨在競選期間曾宣稱，到2017年要將法國預算赤字降到零。要實現這一愿景，2012年和2103年的預算赤字/GDP比率分別需要下降到4.5%和3%。如今隨著一系列數據的修正，要實現這些目標意味著2012年法國政府在增收或減支方面需要比原本預計的再加碼60-100億歐元，2013年更是要增加多達330億歐元。

????為了填補預算缺口，法國政府開始著眼于增收，實施了很多一次性及永久性的加稅措施。加稅主要針對投資者、大公司和富人。修訂后的預算案中，法國政府計劃2012年增加稅收72億歐元。巨額加稅涉及很多渠道，其中有些計劃頗有爭議，比如，將法國富人的稅率提高到令人咋舌的75%。根據法國政府的定義，年收入超過100萬歐元的即為富人。

????The French government's new budget and agenda could destabilize the nation's already shaky economy, setting the stage for a vicious chain of events that could end up pummeling its weak banks on Wall Street, while shattering the eurozone for good. While some elements of the budget are laudable, there are still too many that risk pushing France into a deeper economic sleep. Hard reforms are needed in the country's bloated bureaucracy and overly generous health and pension schemes if it ever hopes to balance its budget and move forward, but that is much easier said than done.

????Nevertheless, France's new government, led by the Socialist Party, has the political capital and connections to get things done in a speedy and positive manner. But as long as party ideology trumps reason, France could eventually find itself in the same boat as its fellow eurozone counterparts, struggling to cope with impossibly high borrowing rates and anemic economic growth.

????Jean-Marc Ayrault, France's new Prime Minister, on Wednesday, released the specifics of his party's plan to lift France out of its economic malaise. With the Socialist Party now in power of both the executive and legislative branches of the French government, whatever Mr. Ayrault wants will probably become law. Working in close conjunction with the nation's new President, Francois Hollande, Mr. Ayrault has endorsed a number of controversial measures aimed at raising revenue to plug the massive hole in the country's budget.

????Running a budget deficit is frowned upon in the 17-member eurozone as one nation's debts can impact the value of the common currency for all members. As such, countries in the eurozone are only allowed to have an annual budget shortfall equal to around 3% of their yearly income. France has had a hard time complying with the rule, running large budget deficits since the 1970s.

????On Monday, an independent audit of the French economy, ordered by the new government, spooked the markets as it showed that France was on course to run a budget deficit equivalent to around 5.2% of its output, up sharply from earlier estimates. The budget gap grew after the new government announced plans to roll back a number unpopular austerity measures passed by the former conservative government. The deficit also expanded as the government finally got real about its economic situation, forcing it to adjust its overoptimistic economic growth forecasts. The government now projects the French economy will grow at 0.3% in 2012, down from the rosier 0.7%. They also lowered their 2013 forecast, projecting a 1.2% growth, down from 1.75%.

????The Socialist Party ran on a platform that envisioned lowering France's budget deficit to zero by 2017. To do that, it would need to achieve a budget deficit equivalent of 4.5% of GDP in 2012 and 3% in 2013. Achieving those targets now with the revised data means that the government will need to cut spending or raise revenue in 2012 by an additional 6 billion to 10 billion euros than what they had originally anticipated. The gap is then expected to explode to as much as 33 billion euros in 2013.

????To close the chasm in the budget, the government is focusing on the revenue side of the equation by imposing a number of one-time and permanent tax hikes. The new taxes will focus mainly on investors, large businesses and the wealthy. In its revised budget, the government is aiming to raise an additional 7.2 billion euros in taxes for 2012. This massive tax hike comes through a number of sources, including controversial plans to raise the national tax rate for the wealthy French citizens, which according to the French government is anyone pulling over 1 million euros a year, to an astounding 75%.