在德國，行動勝千言

????就在全球股市擔心本周召開的歐元區峰會可能傳來噩耗之時，德國國內的最新發展情況或許能為人們提供一些信心，讓人不再對這場曠日持久的歐債危機過于悲觀。德國總理安格拉?默克爾的態度本周出人意料地來了個180度大轉彎，同意救助全德16個負債累累的聯邦州，發行共同債券——聯邦州債券（Deutschland Bond）。為此，地方州同意將一些財政權力上交柏林。這樣的模式似乎為德國與歐元區成員國建立更緊密的財政聯盟鋪平了道路。

????德國官員試圖撇清聯邦州協議與歐債危機有何關聯，但這一事件無論從時機，還是框架上看，都絕非巧合。默克爾似乎是在向歐洲鄰國發出信號，她并不排斥在整個歐元區實施類似的債務共擔安排?？梢詫⒌聡穆摪钪輩f議為模板，創立一個財政聯盟和一個共同的歐洲債務工具（即歐元債券）。如能達成這樣的協議，對于穩定危機而言無疑是邁出了一大步，歐洲終于可以重整旗鼓，再次出發了。

????不同于歐洲其他所有權力都歸首都的中央集權制國家，德國是一個聯邦制國家，權力分布于柏林和16個聯邦州之間，類似于美國一樣的分權制。德國的各個聯邦州有很強的預算權力，可以無需獲得柏林的批準，隨意征稅和支出。

????而和歐元區很多鄰國一樣，德國一些聯邦州發現自己已難以獲得足夠低的融資利率來填補不斷擴大的債務窟窿。更糟的是，一旦執行新的歐盟財政契約（明年即將生效），這些聯邦州將更難獲得融資。

????根據今年1月在歐盟幾乎全盤通過的新財政契約，歐盟成員國需要將總的結構性赤字占GDP的比例降至0.5%以下。這意味著德國的聯邦政府和地方州政府都必須遵守。分拆開來，每個德國聯邦州政府的結構性赤字/GDP比例將不能超過0.15%。對于德國很多聯邦州來說，特別是那些位于德國西北部的一些聯邦州，要執行這樣的上限是不可能完成的任務。比如，德國人口最多的聯邦州北萊茵-威斯特法倫（North Rhine-Westphalia），2014年最多只能新承擔9億歐元債務，但事實上該州至少需要借33億歐元才能維持各項正常開支。

????因此，可以想見德國各聯邦州對必須要執行新財政契約有多不樂意。即便他們同意債務上限規定，如果沒有像希臘那樣的緊縮政策，事實上他們也做不了什么來達到這一目標。因此，上周末，德國聯邦政府和所有16個聯邦州坐下來試圖想出貫徹財政契約的辦法。各個州對此意見并不統一，預算赤字低的聯邦州反對任何形式的債務共擔。但令人意外的是他們居然最終達成了一致，正好趕在本周關鍵的歐元區峰會之前。

????While the markets fear the worst from this week's upcoming eurozone summit, recent developments inside Germany could provide some much needed optimism in the long-running European debt crisis. In a surprising reversal from her former position, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, agreed this week to effectively bail out Germany's 16 debt-ridden states and issue a common debt instrument, the Deutschland Bond. In exchange, the states agreed to give up certain fiscal powers to the federal government in Berlin, paving the way for Germany to form a stronger fiscal union with its eurozone counterparts.

????German officials have tried to downplay the significance of the state deal as it relates to the eurozone debt crisis, but its timing and structure doesn't seem like a coincidence. Merkel seems to be sending a message to her European counterparts that she is open to the idea of a similar debt-sharing arrangement across the eurozone. The state deal could be used as a template for creating a fiscal union and a common European debt instrument, known as a eurobond. Such an agreement would go a long way to stabilizing the crisis, allowing Europe to finally pick up the pieces and move on.

????Unlike other European nations that have a unitary governmental structure, where nearly all power is centralized in the capital, Germany is a federation, where power is distributed between the capital and its 16 states, similar to how power is divided in the United States. The German states have very strong budgeting powers, giving them the ability to tax and spend as they please, without the need for approval from the federal government in Berlin.

????Like many of the members of the eurozone, some German states have found it difficult to borrow money at low enough interest rates to continue funding their widening debt hole. To make matters worse, complying with the new EU fiscal pact, which is set to go into effect next year, will make it even more difficult for the states to fund themselves.

????Under the fiscal pact, which was agreed to by nearly all EU member states in January, countries are required to limit their total structural deficit to less than 0.5% of GDP. That means both Germany's federal and state governments must comply. When all split up, the state and local governments in Germany will only be able to run a structural deficit of 0.15%. For many of the states, most notably those in the northwest part of the country, adhering to those rules would be impossible. For example, North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany's most populous state, would be limited to taking on just 900 million euros in new debt in 2014, despite needing nearly 3.3 billion euros to stay afloat.

????The states were understandably upset about having to comply with a dictum coming from Brussels. Even if they were on board with the debt limits, there was really nothing they could do to comply, short of implementing the kind of austerity measures that crashed the Greek economy. So over the weekend the federal government sat down with all 16 German states to try and hash out a way to comply with the fiscal pact. There was dissention among the states, as those with smaller budget deficits opposed any form of debt sharing. But they surprisingly came up with a solution, just in time for the critical eurozone conference this week.