法國，下一個定時炸彈

????法國社會黨（Socialist Party）可能會把這個國家變成歐洲金融危機的下一個主要受害者。上周社會黨在法國議會選舉中獲得壓倒性勝利，讓這個左翼政黨事實上取得了對法國政府的全面掌控。由于權力不受任何制約，社會黨可自由實施諸多計劃，推動法國膨脹的債務負擔進一步增長，被債券市場民團盯上。

????擁有壓倒性多數支持和強大政治資本的社會黨不應取消審慎改革措施和增加開支。恰恰相反，現在是推動歐元區建立更緊密的政治經濟聯盟的絕佳機會。這樣的轉變相比當前考慮的任何倒退政策，更能強化法國脆弱的經濟。

????上周一，法國社會黨總部內香檳四濺，慶賀該黨獲得法國議會577個席位中的314席。這一勝利讓社會黨取得了對法國國民議會（National Assembly）的全面掌控，也使得社會黨黨首和法國新任總統弗朗西斯?奧朗德（Francois Hollande）無需向僅獲209席位的保守黨人民運動聯盟（UMP）做出讓步即可通過法案。這一蕩氣回腸的勝利超出了預期，因為這意味著社會黨甚至都無需同其他左翼政黨構建一個聯盟來掌控政府的立法部門，已經基本上獲得了對法國的全面掌控。

????社會黨沒有浪費絲毫時間就展開了工作。法國議會已召開為期一個月的特別會議，希望啟動“重建”法國經濟的進程。目前法國的日子并不好過：預計2012年失業率10%，GDP零增長，預算赤字5%將把該國已處于高位的債務/GDP比率推高至90%以上。而且，更令人心驚的是，向歐元區政府和消費者提供數十億歐元貸款的法國大銀行的債務總額已達到2.7萬億歐元，幾乎相當于法國的GDP。

????看看這些數字，就不奇怪為何法國被華爾街和倫敦金融城的很多人士視為一個滴答作響的定時炸彈。法國社會黨希望通過實施很多刺激經濟增長的舉措，在這枚炸彈爆炸前悄無聲息地拆除它。想法固然好，但看起來社會黨準備剪斷的那根引線是錯誤的。

????法國社會黨的政治主張是基于平民主義，承諾將控制住該國不斷加劇的債務負擔，拉動經濟增長。該黨計劃主要通過加稅來實現這兩項通常相互抵觸的目標。奧朗德在4月份的選舉中承諾，將把法國的最高稅級升至75%，并堵住眾多稅務漏洞，他的競選辦公室稱這可為法國財政帶來100億歐元收入，把5%的預算赤字降至更能管理的水平。另外，還有討論擬制定實施3%的股息稅、對銀行和能源公司征收15%的特別稅以及對所有金融交易征收小型交易稅。此外，還有上調增值稅的討論，上調增值稅會對消費支出產生負面影響。

????France's Socialist Party could be setting the country up to become the next major victim of the European financial crisis. A landslide victory for the party, called PS, in this week's parliamentary elections gives the leftist political party virtually total control of the French government. With no check to the PS's power, the party will be free to implement a number of programs that will increase the country's burgeoning debt load, making it a target for the bond market vigilantes.

????But instead of rolling back prudent reforms and spending more money, the PS, with its commanding majority and enormous political capital, has a golden opportunity to push for a much closer political and economic union for the eurozone. Such a change would go further to mending France's withered economy than any of the regressive policies currently under consideration.

????The champagne flowed at the PS headquarters on Monday morning as the party won 314 seats in the 577-seat French parliament. The victory gives the PS total control of the upper and lower houses of the National Assembly, which hands the head of the PS and the country's newly elected President, Francois Hollande, the power to push through laws without the need to compromise with the conservative UMP party, which picked up just 209 seats. The resounding victory was better than expected as it meant that the PS wouldn't even have to form a coalition with other leftist parties to control the legislative branch of government, essentially giving it total control of the country.

????The PS is wasting no time in getting down to work. The parliament has been called into an extraordinary session for a month to start the process of "rebuilding" the French economy. With 10% unemployment and zero GDP growth expected for 2012, things aren't pretty in the Hexagone these days. The country is facing a 5% budget deficit this year, which will increase the nation's already high debt to GDP ratio to well above 90%. And even scarier, the French mega banks, which have made billions of euros of loans to governments and consumers across the eurozone, are exposed to a mind-blowing $2.7 trillion in debt, which is pretty much equal to the nation's GDP.

????Looking at those numbers it is no wonder why France is viewed by many on Wall Street and the City of London as being a financial ticking time bomb. The PS wants to quietly disarm the bomb before it goes off through a number of initiatives, which they believe will stimulate economic growth. But while the PS has good intention, it looks like it is getting ready to snip the wrong wire.

????The PS campaigned on a populist platform where it promised to tame the country's rising debt load, while stimulating economic growth. The party plans on achieving these two normally conflicting goals primarily through tax hikes. Hollande campaigned in April on the promise of raising the nation's top tax bracket to 75% and closing a number of tax loopholes, which his office claims could bring in 10 billion euros to the national treasury, narrowing the 5% budget deficit to a more manageable level. There is also talk of instituting a 3% dividend tax, a 15% special tax on banks and energy companies, as well as a small transaction tax on all financial deals. In addition, there is also talk of increasing the nations VAT tax rate, which will have a negative impact on consumer spending.