資深人士預言風險投資黃金時代即將到來

????考夫曼基金會（Kauffman Foundation）最近宣稱，風投模式已死。合廣投資（Union Square）的費雷德?威爾遜也說，風投模式可供使用的資金太多，因此無法成功。還有人選取了超過25個例子來證明風投模式已經破產。羅森投資公司（Sevin Rosen）在上世紀九十年代以個人電腦和電信硬件投資著稱，但它在2006年放棄了一只新基金，退還投資，標志著這一死亡倒計時的開始。

????過去十年的平均風投回報確實很糟?？禈蜃稍児荆–ambridge Associates）2010年12月截止的10年累計美國風投回報指數變為負值（每年-2.0%），成為當時的頭條新聞。該指數在2011年12月截止的10年間又猛增到每年3.3%，同時期納斯達克指數平均回報每年2.9%。但是，考慮到風投投資的流動性不佳，因為投資者應該得到比公開市場投資高出3%-5%的溢價。

????首先，我的一點看法：這些都是馬后炮，提供有益信息但沒有預測力。在“非理性繁榮”爆發的1998-2000年，超過2,000億美元的資本涌入美國風投市場，此前該市場每年不過吸收50-100億美元。這筆錢導致市場上資金嚴重供過于求，經過很久才逐漸消失。

????The venture capital model is dead, proclaimed the Kauffman Foundation recently. Too much available money for the VC model to succeed added Union Square's Fred Wilson. Another details 25+ stories on why the VC model is broken. Sevin Rosen, a firm known for PC and telecom hardware investments in the 1990s, started this death watch in 2006, when it aborted closing a new fund.

????Average VC returns for the last ten years do stink. Cambridge Associates made headlines when its 10-year cumulative U.S. VC return index went negative at (2.0%)/year in December 2010. The index popped up to 3.3%/year for the decade through December 2011. Over the same period the NASDAQ returned 2.9%/year. But, given the illiquid nature of VC investments, investors deserve a 3% - 5% premium, at least, over public markets.

????First, a bit of perspective: These are rear-view-mirror analyses, informative but not predictive. In the '98-'00 burst of "irrational exuberance," over $200 billion of capital flooded into the U.S. venture market, which had previously absorbed $5-$10 billion per year. This money put a huge supply overhang on the market that has taken time to disappear.