中國躲不過歐債危機

????“中國面臨的風險是隨著2012年推進，外部因素的負面效應將加大，”《如何在全球金融危機后維持中國經濟增長》（Sustaining China's Economic Growth after the Global Financial Crisis）一書的作者、彼得森國際經濟研究所（The Peterson Institute for International Economics）高級研究員尼古拉斯?拉迪表示。他說，出口增速放緩尤其令人擔憂，特別是鑒于中國增速已連續四個季度下滑。歐洲（中國的一個主要市場）今年可能出現經濟衰退的預期以及這對全球其他地區帶來的廣泛影響，可能使中國出口增速再降一個百分點。

????眼下，似乎中國能做的似乎也有這么多了。中國政府也不太容易再出臺一個大規模的刺激計劃。正如《華爾街日報》（the Wall Street Journal）的約瑟夫?斯登伯格所指，很多經濟學家估計上一次經濟刺激計劃時獲批的很多貸款將出現壞賬。

????因此，雖然中國曾奇跡般地躲過了幾場風暴，但這一次的歐債危機中國或許在劫難逃。

????"The risk for China is that the external factors would be more of a drag as we move in 2012," says Nicholas Lardy, author of Sustaining China's Economic Growth after the Global Financial Crisis and senior fellow at The Peterson Institute for International Economics. Lardy says the slowdown in exports is particularly worrisome, given that China's growth has been slowing down for the past four consecutive quarters. Expectations this year of a recession in Europe – one of China's key markets – and its possibly wider impact on the rest of the world could knock off another percentage point in exports.

????At this point, it seems China can only do so much. It likely won't be very easy for officials to dole out another massive stimulus plan. This comes, as Joseph Sternberg of the Wall Street Journal notes, as many economists expect some large portion of loans approved as part of the last package to go sour.

????So while it seems China has miraculously dodged more than a few headwinds, the crisis in Europe could be the malaise it can't escape.