中國躲不過歐債危機

????過去三十年，中國經濟增長令人矚目。但更令人矚目的是，近幾年中國政府駕馭經濟，維持強勁增長的舉措。

????2008、2009年，全球其他地區深陷經濟衰退之時，中國經濟仍在以每年超過9%的速度增長。而且，讓很多預測人士意外的是，本周早些時候中國政府又宣布，去年年末中國的經濟增速超過預期。盡管歐債危機持續發展讓投資者失去信心，去年第四季度中國的GDP增速仍達到了8.9%。不可否認，當季增速為兩年半以來最低，但仍高于大多數人的預期。而且，可能更重要的是，經濟增速高于8%，這個數字是經濟學家認為創造足夠就業所需的最低值。

????顯然，中國有能力實現經濟增長。但未來幾個月（隨著歐債危機繼續演變），中國政府要實現經濟學家所謂的“軟著陸”，難度將大大增加。這項艱巨的任務包括既要將GDP增速從兩位數降至適度的個位數（4%-7%），控制好通脹，同時還要為火爆的樓市降溫，但又不能造成樓市崩盤。

????這些年來，中國經濟之所以有如此出眾的表現，是因為中國獨有的經濟微調能力，保證公共部門和私營部門的需求都得到滿足。2008年金融危機爆發后，中國推出了一個龐大的經濟刺激計劃，基本上避免了經濟衰退。中國政府投資了幾十億美元的基礎設施項目，鼓勵銀行放貸，并向從住宅到拔地而起的辦公樓在內的所有建設項目提供融資。而且，2010年，最發達國家還正在苦苦掙扎如何走出全球經濟衰退的時候，中國已超過日本，成為僅次于美國的全球第二大經濟體。

????但是，中國經濟增長步伐太快了。特別是房價飆升，讓房子成了無數人遙不可及的夢想。很多投資者開始擔憂房地產泡沫是否會破裂，隨后，中國政府實施了嚴厲的樓市調控政策，包括上調利率和收緊貸款標準等。

????如今，投資者擔憂中國可能會出現經濟增長不足，中國已逐步轉向較為寬松的貨幣政策。尤其是中國政府已經指示商業銀行增加放貸；與美國不同，這在中國是可行的，因為大型銀行全都是國有銀行。

????出口是關鍵

????但中國經濟的強勁勢頭看來正在減弱，2012年可能是相當困難的一年。躲過了其他經濟風暴的中國或許難逃歐債危機的沖擊。中國2011年全年經濟增速下滑至9.2%，雖然這樣的增速對于美國和歐洲只能做做白日夢，但已經顯著低于中國2010年的10.4%。中國上一次出現這么低的增速還要追溯到2009年全球金融危機時期。

????經濟學家們普遍認為，經濟增速至少達到8%才能實現軟著陸。但最新的GDP數據顯示，推動中國經濟發展的重要力量——出口，正在呈現顯著下滑。2011年12月份，中國的商品和服務出口額增長了13.4%，撇開新年假期造成的季節性偏差，這是2009年11月以來最低的出口增速。

????For the past three decades, China has seen impressive growth. Even more impressive is the way officials there have engineered a robust economy in recent years.

????While most of the rest of the world was mired in recession in 2008 and 2009, China's economy expanded by more than 9% annually. And to the surprise of many forecasters, officials announced earlier this week that China grew more than expected at the end of last year. GDP rose 8.9% during the fourth quarter, even as Europe's unfolding debt crisis unnerved investors. Admittedly, growth ended 2011 at the slowest pace in 2-1/2 years, but still higher than most expected. And perhaps more importantly, above the 8% minimum that economists believe is needed for sufficient job creation.

????It's clear that China can orchestrate economic growth. But in the coming months – given the fallout transpiring in Europe – it will prove much harder for officials to orchestrate what economists call a "soft landing." That's the daunting task of slowing double-digit GDP growth to mid single-digit growth and reining in inflation, and at the same time cooling its hot real estate market without crashing it.

????What has set China apart over the years is its unique ability to tweak its economy in a way that pleases both the public and private sectors. In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, China launched a massive stimulus plan and largely averted a recession. Officials invested billions in infrastructure projects and encouraged banks to lend and fund construction of everything from apartments to soaring office towers. What's more, in 2010, while most developed nations struggled to recover from the global recession, China's economy outpaced Japan to become the world's second-largest economy after the U.S.

????But then the Chinese economy was growing too fast. Prices for homes, in particular, skyrocketed and put home ownership out of reach for millions. And when many investors wondered if the property bubble would burst, officials implemented policies to reel in inflation by hiking interest rates and tightening lending standards.

????Now that investors worry China may not be growing enough, it has gradually shifted to looser monetary policies. Chiefly, the government has instructed banks to increase their lending, which, unlike in the U.S., is possible since all large banks are owned by the state.

????All about exports

????Yet China's resilience appears to be waning and 2012 could be a very tough year. The country that has avoided other economic headwinds may have more trouble escaping the wrath of Europe's debt crisis. China's growth for all of 2011 slipped to 9.2% -- a pace the U.S. and Europe could only dream of. But that's still markedly weaker growth from the 10.4% in 2010 and it's a pace last seen in 2009 during the global financial crisis.

????Economists widely believe that growth of at least 8% is needed for a soft landing. But the latest GDP figure highlights a significant drop in exports, which essentially drives China's economy. In December, Chinese goods and service sold abroad rose 13.4%, marking the slowest export growth since November 2009 aside from seasonal blips due to New Year holidays.