向中國學習：前副財長呼吁美國擴大支出

????中國經濟欣欣向榮，而美國經濟卻舉步維艱。原因何在？

????前美國副財長法蘭克?紐曼在其新書中指出，美國政府支出不足，這是造成美國經濟止步不前的主要原因所在。當前正值西方世界債務和赤字飆升、全球投資者膽戰心驚之際，這無疑是一個很大膽的觀點，即便紐曼本人也承認這一點。

????紐曼剛剛結束五年的任期，卸任深發展（Shenzhen Development Bank）董事長兼首席執行官。他說，政府支出和赤字沒什么好擔心的。他以中國為例，2008年底中國啟動了為期兩年的5,860億美元支出計劃，以避免經濟衰退，保持中國經濟持續增長。但是盡管中國擴大支出、促進增長的策略取得了成功，但奧巴馬總統最新的刺激計劃卻更多地側重于減稅和向各州提供幫助上。

????應該承認，紐曼的新書《阻礙美國經濟發展的六大迷思：美國可以從中國經濟增長中學到什么》（Six Myths that Hold Back America: And what America can learn from the growth of China's economy）把這個問題過度簡單化了，畢竟中美經濟存在巨大差異。雖然紐曼也像很多人一樣敦促美國政府增加對基礎設施的支出，但他并不認同“過多的主權債務就是不負責任”這一普遍觀點，由此與其他人劃清了界限。

????我們最近就這本新書對紐曼進行了采訪。下面是經過編輯的采訪錄音文字記錄：

為什么你認為美國不需過多擔憂赤字？

????在有1,400萬人失業的情況下，財政赤字并不是什么壞事——這是政府拉動經濟增長的一項必須且關鍵的工具。那些擔憂美國債務水平的人根本沒有弄清楚美國國債的本質。它不同于個人債務，甚至也不同于公司債務。

????沒有比美國國債更安全的投資工具了。假如你是一個擁有1,000萬美元的富有投資者、如果把這些錢存入銀行，很可能根本拿不到多少利息，而且存款保險額度的上限只有25萬美元。但如果你把錢投資美國國債，美國政府會提供全部的保證和信用。

但如果美國債務水平失控，不會讓投資者擔心，不會放緩美國經濟增速嗎？

????你也許聽過一個國家的債務水平不能超過其國內生產總值（GDP）的70%，否則其經濟將遇到大麻煩。這對于歐洲國家可能是正確的，但對其他國家可能不適合。美國的債務/GDP比率曾超過100%；英國到過150%-200%，完全沒有問題；日本現在也超過了200%。日本經歷了“失落的十年”，但即便如此，在大海嘯之前的2010年，日本也是零通脹，失業率僅為5%，GDP增速超過3%。這么漂亮的數據正是美國和歐洲夢寐以求的。而且，日本國債銷售異?；鸨?。

????而且，關于“美國舉債，將給子孫后代們背上償債的沉重包袱”是一個誤區。真實情況是這些債務從未還清過。美國200多年的歷史中幾乎一直有債務，而且債務規模還在持續增加。

???Why is China's economy booming while America seems to struggle?

????Frank Newman, former deputy secretary of the U.S. Treasury, argues in a new book that America's government isn't spending enough, and that's largely what's hold its economy back. It's a bold statement that even Newman acknowledges, as the soaring debts and deficits in the Western world continue to unnerve investors across the globe.

????Newman, who recently completed five years as chairman and CEO of China-based Shenzhen Development Bank, says government spending and deficits aren't anything to fear. He points to China, which in late 2008 embarked on a two-year, $586 billion spending program to try to stave off a recession and keep the Chinese economy growing. But while China trumped its spend and build motto, President Obama's latest stimulus plan focused more on tax cuts and aid to states.

????Admittedly, Newman's book, Six Myths that Hold Back America: And what America can learn from the growth of China's economy, might come off as somewhat overly simplistic given the vast differences between the economies of China and the U.S. And while he joins many others urging increased spending on America's infrastructure, Newman sets himself apart by testing the popular perception that excessive sovereign debt is irresponsible.

????We caught up with him recently to talk about his book. Below is an edited transcript of the interview.

Why do you think the U.S. shouldn't worry so much about deficits?

????With 14 million people unemployed, deficits aren't a bad thing – they're an essential and critical tool for government to boost the economy. Those who worry about America's debt simply do not understand the nature of Treasury securities. It's not debt the way personal debt is or even the way corporate debt is.

????There's no safer place to invest than U.S. Treasuries. Suppose you are a wealthy investor with $10 million. If you leave it in the bank, you're probably not going to get any interest. And it's insured only up to $250,000. But if you put your money in Treasuries, they have the full faith and credit of the U.S. government.

But if our debt levels get out of control, wouldn't that worry investors and slow U.S. growth?

????You hear that you can't have more than 70% debt to GDP or your economy will run into big trouble. That may be true for Europe, but perhaps not for other countries. The U.S. has been over 100% before; Great Britain has been 150% to 200% and has done fine; Japan is over 200%. Even though Japan had this lost decade, in 2010, before the tsunami struck, Japan had no inflation with only 5% unemployment and over 3% GDP growth. The U.S. and Europe would have died to have such good numbers. And Japanese government bonds sold like crazy.

????And it's a myth that America's debt is going to be a great burden to our children and grandchildren who may have to repay it. The truth is it never gets paid back. In over 200 years American history, we've almost always had debt. It keeps going up.