蘋果營收低于預期沒什么大不了

????分析師有責任根據蘋果公司的指標設定合理的估算參數。眾所周知，蘋果公司非常保守，而且一貫如此。公司確實給出了明確的范圍，分析師應該參照公司在相關季度的實際表現表現，將這一范圍視為上下浮動的參數。蘋果公司不斷重申，第4季度是一個過渡季。但分析師卻似乎并未理解這種暗示。

????據湯姆森金融公司（Thomson Financial）報道，分析人士普遍希望該季度蘋果公司能夠實現營收297億美元。這比蘋果公司250億美元的季度指標高出47億美元。

????但有意思的是，這一預測比蘋果公司的營收指標高出18.8%。這意味著，如果分析人士對每個季度的預測均超出公司指標18.8%，那么除了第3財季，自金融危機以來，公司每個季度的營收均低于預期。

????這說明什么問題？蘋果本季度的表現超出平均水平，但華爾街卻給出了一個不現實的數字，完全背離了近期的歷史標準。簡直是不可理喻。

????當然分析人士也有自己的理由。蘋果公司第3財季的表現確實超過正常的12% - 18%的范圍，超出指標24.22%。但蘋果之所以能在第3季度實現這么高地營收增長，很大程度上是由于公司iPad產品運營速度大大超過了蘋果公司自身的預期。剛剛進入第3財季時，蘋果公司是否會突破iPad 2的產量限制，公司并無明確預期。而且當時iPhone手機的表現也遠遠超出預期。

????我們有時確實會遇到這樣的財季，但這種情況極為罕見。而且，在進行預測建模時，最好是堅持保守的立場。從這一角度而言，分析師本應領會蘋果的暗示，根據蘋果公司過去的平均表現進行預測。

????其實，蘋果公司此次的營收下降根本不值得大驚小怪。之所以引發如此關注，很大程度上是由于分析師們對自己的估算過分熱衷。蘋果公司營收下降的原因只不過是分析師的錯誤。如果這種說法無法讓你信服，或許蘋果公司第1財季的指標能讓你相信，這種“增長神話”還在上演。

????蘋果公司給出的370億美元收入指標顯示，公司同比營收增長幅度將達到60%，每股利潤率達77.7%。而且，為了實現420億美元的營收指標，iPhone手機的銷量必須比去年同期翻一番，達到3,300萬臺。去年同期iPhone手機的銷量為1,623.5萬臺。

????不論是營收還是每股利潤，蘋果公司均遙遙領先于微軟（Microsoft）。對于這樣一家公司而言，如果說第1財季的每股利潤增長率將達到77.7%，這是否有些滑稽？如果收回現金，明年公司的市盈率為5倍；反之，則為8倍，這豈不是更加滑稽？

????本文作者安迪?M?扎克為Bullish Cross資產管理公司基金經理，并負責運營財務網站Bullish Cross。

????譯者：阿龍/汪皓

????It's the job of analysts to make sure that they set reasonable parameters to their estimates based on how Apple guides. Everyone knows that Apple is conservative, but they are consistently conservative. They do offer a clear-cut range, which should be the upper and lower parameters based on the quality of the quarter. This quarter, Apple harped on the fact that this would be a transition quarter. Yet, analysts didn't seem to take the hint.

????The analyst consensus for the quarter was calling for Apple to report revenue of $29.7 billion according to Thomson Financial. That is $4.7 billion above Apple's $25 billion guidance on the quarter.

????Now what's interesting about this revenue consensus is that it was 18.8% above Apple's revenue guidance. That means if you exclude fiscal Q3, Apple would have missed in every single quarter since the financial crisis if analysts had modeled for that same 18.8% revenue beat in each of those quarters.

????What does that say about analyst expectations this quarter? Apple beat by its usual number, but Wall Street modeled for a number that was simply unrealistic by recent historical standard. This is completely insane.

????Now in defense of the analysts, Apple did report a number that was beyond the normal 12%-18% range we've seen in the past in fiscal Q3. In fiscal Q3, Apple reported a 24.22% beat. But a huge part of that beat had to do with Apple being able to get its iPad production up and running a lot faster than even Apple expected. Going into fiscal Q3, there wasn't a whole lot of clarity as to whether Apple would be able to get any traction with iPad 2 production constraints. We also had a much stronger than expected iPhone number.

????We tend to see quarters like this from time to time but they tend to be the rarity. Moreover, when it comes to modeling, it's always better to be conservative and to take the conservative stance. In this sense, analysts really should have taken a hint from Apple and modeled for the same type of earnings beat that Apple has typically delivered in the past.

????In the end, this miss is just a minor blip largely due to analysts simply getting a little overzealous with their estimates. If you're not convinced that Apple's miss was due to nothing more than a mistake by analysts, perhaps Apple's fiscal Q1 guidance can convince you that the growth story is still in tact.

????Apple's $37 billion revenue guidance suggests that the company is going to report 60% year-over-year revenue growth and 77.7% EPS growth. Moreover, in order for Apple to report $42 billion in revenue as indicated by its guidance, the company would have to report sales of about 33 million iPhones. That is a 100% growth rate for the iPhone above the 16.235 million iPhones Apple sold in the same quarter last year.

????For a company that has far eclipsed Microsoft in both revenue and EPS, doesn't it seem a little ludicrous that Apple is going to produce 77.7% EPS growth in fiscal Q1? Doesn't it seem even more ludicrous that the company trades at only five time next year's earnings if you back out cash and only eight times next year's earnings if you don't back out the cash?

????Andy M. Zaky is a fund manager at Bullish Cross Asset Management and runs the financial newsletter, Bullish Cross.