蘋果營收低于預期沒什么大不了

????蘋果最新季度財報發布之后，讀者肯定會看到大量評論，試圖將蘋果公司（Apple）營收下降歸結于一些模棱兩可的原因，比如全球宏觀經濟環境持續惡化，史蒂夫?喬布斯過世等，或者把這視為蘋果公司增長放緩的信號。

????不了解蘋果公司的人肯定會認為，全球經濟增長前景堪憂，蘋果公司最終還是不得不屈從于現實，而且隨著公司靈魂人物的離世，蘋果的好日子已經到頭了。他們會認為蘋果公司第四財季出現的營收下降是一個明確的警告信號，表明公司的股票已經達到最高點，之后只會不斷下降，投資者必須做好準備。

????首先，這些論調純屬一派胡言。凡是說蘋果公司已過巔峰，將走下坡路的人，根本不了解公司的運營或財務狀況：不出三年時間，蘋果擁有的現金總量就將超過它的市值。

????按2012年的盈利預期計算，公司股票市盈率為8倍，而且沒有負債；如果來年收回預期的1,500億美元現金，則市盈率僅為5倍。別忘了，我們談論的可是一家年收益增長率為80%的公司。

????問題是，如果蘋果公司表現如此優異，又怎么會出現收入下降呢？史蒂夫?喬布斯剛剛離世，蘋果公司就出現了2004年以來的首次下降，這是不是有些蹊蹺？上個季度，蘋果公司的表現還超出華爾街的預期33.6%，這還是同一家蘋果公司嗎？

????實際上，蘋果還是那個蘋果。收入的下降與“增長放緩”、史蒂夫?喬布斯離世，或者全球宏觀經濟環境沒有任何關系。那么，原因到底何在？

????蘋果公司上周二公布的收入下降其實只不過是因為分析師過度糾結于他們的預期。蘋果公司每個季度都會超出自己制定的營收指標12% - 18%。自從蘋果公司于2009年修改會計標準之后，公司股票收入始終高于營收指標12% - 18%，浮動區間保持在6%以內。

????分析師基本都明白這一點，并且，他們的預期幾乎都比蘋果公司的營收指標高出5%到10%。這樣一來，要想超出分析師的預期，蘋果公司就要做得更多，而且這種情況會不斷重復。只要蘋果能夠做到，這種“增長神話”就不會露出破綻 —— 即便這套算法根本沒什么道理可言。

????本季度，蘋果公司超出營收預期13.08%。實際上，這一增長幅度，遠遠超過蘋果在2010年第4財季與2011年第2財季的表現。而且，這也恰好屬于12% - 18%的正常幅度。

????從蘋果的角度來看，公司之所以提出250億美元的營收指標，是因為公司非常清楚，這個季度是過渡時期。公司在電話會議中也對分析人士解釋，這是一個過渡季。但即便如此，公司的表現一如既往地優秀，超出營收指標13.08%。

????因此，分析師對自己的估算如此執著，并不是蘋果公司的錯。蘋果公司的表現始終如一，其實際營收超出指標的幅度仍在12% - 18%的范圍之內。

????You're going to come across quite a bit of commentary today that will try and pin Apple's earnings miss to some vague notion of the weakening global macroeconomic environment, to the death of Steve Jobs or to the beginning of a general slowdown at Apple.

????Those who know very little about the company will try to argue that Apple has finally succumbed to intensifying global growth concerns, and that without its master chief architect, Apple's best days are now behind it. They will point to Apple's fiscal fourth quarter miss as a clear warning sign that the stock has peaked and that all investors have to look forward to is lower prices from here.

????First of all, these arguments are total nonsense. Anyone who says that Apple (AAPL) has topped or that it cannot go any higher has zero working knowledge about the company or its financials. The company is going to have more cash than its entire market cap in less than three years.

????The stock is trading at only 8 times its calendar 2012 earnings, has no debt and if you back out Apple's expected cash of $150 billion next year, then it is only trading at 5 times next year's earnings. You're talking about company that's growing its earnings at 80% a year.

????So this raises the question. If Apple is so amazing, then how can the company miss? Isn't it sort of curious that the minute Steve Jobs departs this earth, Apple misses for the first time since 2004? Is this the same Apple that tends to beat Wall Street expectations by 33.6% like it did last quarter?

????The fact is that nothing about the company has changed. Almost none of this earnings miss has anything to do with "slowing growth," Steve Jobs or the global macroeconomic environment. But if it's not slowing growth, then what can it possibly be?

????Apple's big miss on Tuesday was the inevitable result of analysts getting too carried away with their expectations. Every quarter Apple tends to beat its own revenue guidance by a range of 12%-18%. Since Apple changed its accounting standards back in 2009, the stock has consistently beaten its revenue guidance in that tight 6% range between 12%-18%.

????Analysts for the most part have come to understand this and have tended to offer a consensus that is between 5% and 10% above Apple's revenue guidance. That way, Apple has plenty of room to beat those expectations and the game goes round and round. As long as Apple beats, the growth story is in tact -- even though such math doesn't even make sense.

????This quarter, Apple beat its revenue expectations by 13.08%. That was actually a bigger beat than the earnings beat Apple delivered on its revenue guidance in fiscal Q4 2010 and in fiscal Q2 2011. It also falls within the normal range of 12%-18% that we've seen over the past several years.

????From Apple's perspective, it gave guidance of $25 billion in revenue because it knew that this was a transition quarter, it explained that this was a transition quarter in the conference call, and it delivered a 13.08% beat -- which is what it normally does.

????Thus, it's not Apple's fault that analysts got too carried away with their estimates. Apple was consistent – it delivered a beat that was within a 12%-18% range of its guidance.