現金為王，投資至上

????健康的資產負債表通常被拿來作為支持公司股價增長的理由之一。背后的理論是，資產負債表上現金的增加是公司運營狀況健康的跡象，它也為公司提供了進行收購所需的彈藥。因此，當資產負債表變得更加健康時，由于并購機會的增加，市場理應出現潛在的股票購買需求。

????我們上周末對標準普爾500指數中市值最大的50家公司的資產負債表變化情況進行了觀察，將其作為更大范圍內公司資產負債表健康程度的代表。這些公司的合計市值剛好超過了標準普爾500成分股公司總市值的一半，因此這是美國公司一個比較合理的樣本群體。

????我們在這項分析中剔除了金融類公司。對標準普爾500指數中市值最大的50家公司而言，這包括花旗集團（Citigroup）、高盛公司（Goldman Sachs ）、富國銀行（Wells Fargo）、摩根大通（J.P. Morgan）股價及美國銀行（Bank of America）。此舉顯然不是為了低估金融類公司資產負債表的相關性，而是為了簡化分析，把關注的重點放在運營現金和債務上面——而不是嘗試著破譯各大銀行的資產負債表及其現金和債務的性質。

????下面的圖表顯示的是從2008年6月30日至2011年6月30日，標準普爾500指數中50家市值最大公司每個季度的現金（包括短期投資和現金等價物）、債務（短期和長期）和凈債務余額。在這段時間內，現金增加了2,730億美元，或者說49％。同期的債務增長了780億美元?？偟膩碚f，自2008年6月30日以來，由于凈債務下降了約2,000億美元，這些公司的資產負債表獲得了顯著的改善。

????The health of corporate balance sheets is commonly cited as a reason to be supportive of higher stock prices. The theory is that as corporations build cash on their balance sheets, it's a sign of operational health and it also provides ammunition to make acquisitions. Therefore as balance sheets get healthier, there should be an underlying bid to equities due to increased M&A prospects.

????We spent the weekend looking at the progression of corporate balance sheets for the 50 largest market capitalized companies in the S&P 500 as a proxy for the health of corporate balance sheets more generally. Collectively, this group of companies is just over 50% of the total market capitalization of the S&P 500, so it's a reasonable proxy for corporate America.

????In this analysis, we also removed the financials, which for the largest 50 companies in the S&P 500 includes Citigroup (C), Goldman Sachs (GS), Wells Fargo (WFC), J.P. Morgan (JPM) and Bank of America (BAC). The point is obviously not to understate the relevance of the balance sheets of banks, but rather to simplify the analysis and focus on operational cash and debt versus trying to decipher the balance sheets of the major banks and the nature of their cash and debt obligations.

????In the chart below, we show the quarterly cash (short term investments and cash equivalents), debt (short and long term), and net debt balances of the largest 50 companies in the S&P 500 by market capitalization going back quarterly from June 30, 2011 to June 30, 2008. In that time period, cash has grown by $273 billion, or 49%. Over the same period, debt grew by $78 billion. In aggregate, corporate balance sheets, on this basis, have seen meaningful improvement since June 30, 2008 as net debt has declined by almost $200 billion over the period.

????有趣的是，如果我們把通用電氣公司（General Electric）從這項分析中剔除，公司的現金增長情況就顯得不那么積極了。正如下圖所示，在剔除通用電氣后，從2008年第2季度到2011年第3季度，現金增長了2,000多億美元。與此同時，債務的增長數額與此相仿。因此，如果以凈債務作為資產負債表的健康指標，標準普爾500指數中50家市值最大公司（不包括銀行和通用電氣）如今的狀況跟3年前幾乎完全一樣。

????Interestingly, if we back out General Electric (GE) from this analysis, the growth of cash on corporate balance is less positive. As the chart below shows, after removing GE, cash grew by over $200 billion from Q2 2008 to Q3 2011. At the same time, debt grew by a comparable amount. So on the basis of net debt as a proxy for health of the balance sheet, the largest 50 companies in the S&P 500, excluding the banks and GE, look almost exactly the same today as they did three years ago.

????但是這絕不意味著公司資產負債表的健康狀況不佳。事實上，如果按照更長期的歷史研究來觀察，公司資產負債表是相當健康的?！度A爾街日報》(Wall Street Journal)在最近的一項研究中強調指出，“在公司從建筑物到債券的所有資產中，現金占了7.1％，是1963年以來的最高水平?！?/p>

????盡管如此，目前還不清楚，資產負債表上的現金是否應被視為一個驅動股價的積極因素。

????相反，現金持續增長，但卻沒有用來投資，這是一個有點令人不安的現象，尤其是考慮到現金和短期投資目前獲得的利率是如此之低。在2008年第3季度，90天貨幣市場利率約為3％，如今在0.4％左右。由于利率下降，從2008年第2季度到2011年第2季度，按年率計算的利息收入下降了逾130億美元，從160億美元下降至30億美元多一點。因此，雖然現金余額的增長相對積極，但現金回報的下降已遠遠抵消了現金增長帶來的好處。

????最后，我們審視了過去3年以來改善程度最好的資產負債表和表現最差的資產負債表，分析的基礎都是凈債務的增長。如上所述，通用電氣的資產負債表看起來較3年前獲得了顯著改善。消極方面，?？松梨冢‥xxon Mobil ）的資產負債表規模同期則出現了大幅度下降，從301億美元的凈現金下降至65億美元的凈債務。

????顯然，美國公司的資產負債表還算體面，但我們奉勸大家不要將其看作市場的良性催化劑。相反，我們甚至可以認為，只要現金沒有用于生產性支出，而是閑置在資產負債表上，僅僅賺取微薄的回報率，它其實是在拖累公司收益的增長。事實上，公司現金閑置，滿足于賺取菲薄的回報率，這種做法其實是向外界表明，它們看不到有價值的增長機會。

????現金為王，但前提是它能賺取回報。

????譯者：任文科

????None of this is to say that corporate balance sheets are in poor health. In fact, based on longer term historical studies, corporate balance sheets are quite healthy. A recent study by the Wall Street Journal highlighted that "Cash accounted for 7.1% of all company assets, everything from buildings to bonds, the highest level since 1963."

????That said, it is just not clear that cash on balance sheets should be considered a positive catalyst for stock prices.

????Conversely, it is somewhat disconcerting that cash is growing and not being invested, especially given the low interest rates that cash and short-term investments are earning. In Q3 2008, the 90-day money market rate was roughly 3% versus roughly 0.4% now. As a result of declining rates, the change in interest income on an annualized basis from Q2 2008 to Q2 2011 was a decline more than $13 billion, from $16 billion to just over $3 billion. So, while cash balances growing are a positive, the decline in the return on cash has more than offset that positive.

????Finally, we examined the most improved balance sheet over the last three years and the worst performing balance sheet, all on the basis of growth of net debt. As mentioned above, GE appears to have a dramatically improved balance sheet from three years ago, while on the negative side, Exxon Mobil (XOM) has seen its balance sheet decline over that period from $30.1 billion in net cash to $6.5 billion in net debt.

????Clearly, corporate balance sheets in the U.S. are in decent shape, but we would caution against using that as a market catalyst. Arguably, as well, it is actually a drag on earnings growth as long as cash sits on the balance sheet unproductively earning low rates of return. In fact, by letting cash sit and earn low rates of return, corporations are actually signaling that they do not see meaningful growth opportunities in the future.

????Cash is king . . . if it earns a return.