Windows 8前景看好，微軟股市翻身有望

??? 微軟公司（Microsoft）的訃告已經被寫過多次了。在這個由蘋果公司（Apple）設計并主宰的科技世界里，就是沒有這家軟件巨頭的一席之地。首席執行官斯蒂夫?鮑爾默無法引領微軟走向成長，只能讓它后PC世界里繼續賣PC軟件。微軟經常被貶為跟不上潮流，以至于投資者已基本上不再信任其股票了。過去十年的大部分時間里，它的股價一直在每股25美元到30美元之間窄幅波動。本周一，微軟股價收停于27美元左右，2008年，2006年，2004年和2001年，每年的這個時候它都是這個價……這是什么疑似？你懂的。

????但是，過去五天里，微軟向開發者展示了其最新操作系統Windows 8之后，其股價卻上漲了5%。這個系統是旨在開創Windows的的新紀元，它試圖在移動設備、平板電腦和傳統PC之間建立聯系的紐帶。股價的這一小幅上漲是一個信號，表明長期看低微軟股票的投資者正在做出對自己不利的舉動。

????Windows 8在初期測評中受到了也許是該系列操作系統有史以來最熱烈的好評，同時也帶來了這樣一種可能性，即微軟可能會重新融入這個所謂的后PC世界。前蘋果公司高管珍-露易絲?蓋瑟撰文稱，Windows 8新增的觸摸式Metro用戶界面“是微軟在‘Windows無處不在’這一路線上邁出的新步伐，它使所有微軟系統驅動的設備都用上了簡潔、優雅的用戶界面，不管是PC，智能手機，還是平板電腦?！笨萍疾┛蚑echCrunch稱其為“確實相當出彩，相當富有洞察力”。甚至頗富影響力的蘋果博主約翰?格魯伯也承認“作為iPad的對手，它肯定完敗，但仍然不失為一款成功的操作系統”。

????好吧，這些評論多數可能是明褒暗貶，但是考慮一下這個事實：蘋果公司發布iPad后短短一年半的時間里，微軟就從零開始打造了一套足以與蘋果的iOS操作系統相提并論的操作系統。1996年，斯蒂夫?喬布斯在接受《財富》雜志（Fortune）專欄作家菲利普?埃爾默-德威特采訪時曾夸下?？?，稱蘋果早在20世紀80年代就已經開發出來的操作系，統微軟要花上10年才能迎頭趕上。

????微軟永遠也沒法成為今日蘋果那樣的創新引擎。但它仍能在其鼎盛時期所擅長的事情上再次勝出：模仿創新者并將其大規模銷售給龐大的用戶群。這也正是微軟攜Windows Phone 7極力爭取的局面。除了一套創新的用戶界面，這套手機操作系統并未取得太多突破。但是，一旦加上諾基亞的全球用戶，突然間，部分分析師就開始預測，到2015年Windows Phone 7的市場份額將達到21%，超過蘋果公司15%的份額。

????Windows 8 也不太可能抬高任何創新門檻，但在加速駛向云計算的技術世界里，它能讓微軟參與到平板電腦和上網本的競爭中去。眾多緊跟微軟的證券分析師都對此印象深刻，其中少數人還預測微軟股價將漲至34美元或35美元。換言之，Windows 8和Windows Phone 7能將微軟股價推高30%。

????然而，投資者們并未如此陶醉。微軟開發者大會正好與其年度分析師和投資者大會同時召開。與會的投資者最有興趣的似乎只是如何使微軟從530億美元的現金拿出更多的錢來支付紅利。通常，投資者會對預計增長有限的公司提出這樣的要求。微軟的營業收入年增長率約為6%，而蘋果則高達50%。因此，人們再次回到老一套的說法：微軟不是蘋果，所以它必須支付紅利。

????短期內，更豐厚的紅利可能是唯一能讓投資者高興的事情，但一直面臨下課呼聲的鮑爾默終于做了件像樣的工作，為微軟的長遠增長奠定了基礎，而且這一增長有可能會重回兩位數的高位。

????Windows 8在有能力開始為微軟創收之前還有很長的路要走。微軟本財年將于2012年6月結束，在此之前，它不太可能上市。如果微軟不能推出奇招，或者用戶對新界面并不滿意，這款操作系統的銷售業績可能會令人失望。但Windows 8正像它此前的Windows Phone 7一樣，為微軟提供了該公司一段時間以來所缺乏的東西，也就是一款能讓公司長期緊跟潮流的核心產品。如果微軟能成功地讓它一炮打響，某一天投資也許會后悔沒抓住眼下的機會，在其股價處于低位時建倉。

????譯者：清遠

????Microsoft's obituary has been written plenty of times. There was no place for the software mammoth in a tech world designed -- and dominated -- by Apple. CEO Steve Ballmer was unable to steer the company to a position of growth, leaving Microsoft selling PC software in a post-PC world. So often has Microsoft been written off as irrelevant that investors have largely stopped believing in the stock, which has spent the bulk of the past ten years in a tight range between $25 a share and $30 a share. On Monday, the stock closed around $27, which is where it traded around this time of the year in 2008, in 2006, in 2004, in 2001 … you get the idea.

????In the past five days, however, Microsoft's (MSFT) shares have risen by 5%, following the presentation of its latest operating software, Windows 8, to developers. Designed as a fresh start for Windows, it attempts to bridge mobile devices, tablets and traditional PCs. That modest uptick is a sign that investors that have so long written off Redmond's stock may be doing so at their own peril.

????In early reviews, Windows 8 received perhaps the strongest praise ever for a version of its operating system and opened up the possibility that Microsoft could in fact become relevant in the so-called post-PC world. Jean-Louis Gassée, a former Apple (AAPL) executive, wrote that the touch-based Metro user interface added to Windows 8 "is a step along the 'Windows Everywhere' road that leads to a single, elegant UI for all Microsoft-powered devices, whether they're PCs, smartphones, or tablets." TechCrunch called it "actually quite cool and quite intuitive." Even John Gruber, an influential Apple blogger, conceded "it could utterly fail as an iPad competitor, but still be a successful OS."

????Okay, much of that may be damning with faint praise, but consider that, only a year and a half after Apple released the iPad, Microsoft has built from scratch an operating system that is winning comparisons to iOS. As Steve Jobs pointed out in a 1996 interview unearthed by Philip Elmer-DeWitt, it took Microsoft 10 years to catch up to the operating system that Apple created in the 1980s.

????Microsoft will never become the driving force of innovation that Apple is today. But it can excel again at the thing it was good at in its glory days: copying the innovators and selling it at large-scale to a vast customer base. That is what Microsoft has been pushing for with Windows Phone 7. Aside from an innovative user interface of its own, the mobile OS doesn't break a lot of new ground. But throw in access to Nokia's global customers and, suddenly, some analysts see Windows Phone 7 taking a 21% market share in 2015, surpassing Apple's 15% share.

????Windows 8 isn't likely to raise any innovative bars either, but it could keep Microsoft in the race as tablets vie with netbooks in a tech world moving further into the cloud. Most securities analysts following Microsoft were impressed, with a few predicting Microsoft will rise as high as $34 or $35 a share. In other words, Windows 8 and Windows Phone 7 could push Microsoft 30% higher.

????Investors weren't so enthralled. Microsoft staged its developers conference to coincide with an annual meeting with analysts and investors. There, investors seemed most interested in getting a bigger piece of Microsoft's $53 billion worth of cash to be paid into dividends. Such demands are usually made to companies expected to see little, if any growth. Microsoft's revenue is growing around 6% a year compared with a 50% growth rate for Apple. It's the same old story: Microsoft isn't Apple, so it must pay a dividend.

????In the near term, a fatter dividend may be the only thing to make investors happy, but Ballmer -- who keeps facing calls for his replacement as CEO -- is finally starting to do a decent job of laying the foundation for Microsoft's long-term growth -- growth that could return to the double-digits.

????Windows 8 has a long way to go before it can start adding to Microsoft's revenue. It's unlikely to launch before the end of Microsoft's fiscal year, which ends in June 2012. Sales could disappoint if Microsoft fails to work out any potential kinks or if users are uncomfortable with the new interface. But Windows 8, like Windows Phone 7 before it, offers Microsoft something the company hasn't had in a while: a core product that could keep the company relevant for years. If Microsoft succeeds in making that happen, investors may one day regret this chance to have gotten its shares for cheap.