頂級投資人回顧股市驚魂一周

????直到上周三兩點時，湯姆?佛瑞斯特仍然覺得自己是個英雄。他是2008年唯一一個掙到錢的股票共同基金經理。剛剛過去的24小時內，他花了1千萬美元買進股票。上周二道瓊斯工業平均指數（Dow Jones Industrial Average）從低位大漲。然后，突然之間， 該指數在次日狂跌了350個點，以大跌收盤。佛瑞斯特說：“當時我們想，天啊，不會吧?！彼母ト鹚固貎r值基金（Forester Value fund ）今年的業績好于98%的競爭對手。

????對普通人甚至地球上最精明的投資人來說，上一周都十分詭異，佛瑞斯特的經歷充分說明了這點。佛瑞斯特與華爾街眾多的交易員不同，他不做短線交易。他是個悠閑的中西部人，住在芝加哥城外。每天開著一輛2006款阿庫拉越野車（Acura S.U.V）去上班。車是兩年前買的二手車，買來時就已經開了3萬9千英里（62,764.42公里）。他喜歡買進優質公司的股票，長期持有。但是，股市上周的劇烈震蕩讓佛瑞斯特也感到迷惑，震驚，筋疲力盡。

周一：道指下跌5.6%

????佛瑞斯特今年52歲。他周一早晨進辦公室時還認為標普（Standard & Poor's ）下調美國債務評級不會對股市帶來太大的影響。他說，“我不認為有什么大不了的?！庇幸恍?，他的看法沒錯。股市在開市后很快有所回升。他說：“但其實我大錯特錯?！敝芤坏乐赶碌?.6%，是自金融危機以來最大的單日跌幅。

????佛瑞斯特一直都認為美國處在十字路口。他給投資人的信函中滿是對美國和歐洲債務增長的憂慮。他一直在質疑美聯儲（Fed）的量化寬松政策取得的實效?，F在國會就債務上限陷入僵局，利率已經為零，他想知道如果經濟持續下滑，美國政府還有什么措施。

????由于擔憂加劇，自從五月以來，佛瑞斯特管理的1.60億美元基金開始囤積現金，并 購買指數看跌期權，目的都是在市場下滑的時候保護自己的基金。目前為止，他的做法都是奏效的。晨星公司（Morningstar）稱，截至周五弗瑞斯特價值基金在2011年上漲了0.5%，（而標普500指數則是大幅下跌了5.5%）在1,115家基金公司中排名第14。

????但是周一股市暴跌之后，佛瑞斯特看著手頭的指數看跌期權，心想，“我真該多買點?！?/p>

周二：道指上漲4%

????佛瑞斯特周一睡得很不安穩。周二，照例是10分鐘的車程去上班，路上還聽著美國全國廣播公司財經頻道（CNBC）的廣播。股指期貨顯示市場正在回歸。他感到一絲釋然。但是當天下午美聯儲發表一份聲明之后，股市再次狂跌，佛瑞斯特不知所措了。

????他想，現在到底是1987年，市場最終會慢慢恢復；還是2008年，噩夢才剛剛開始。他想起了這周早些時候法國銀行巨頭興業銀行（Société Générale）要倒閉的傳言。他說：“這是2008年的重現?！?/p>

????雖然很擔憂，但是周二佛瑞斯特還是隱約覺得應該采取行動。他開始看好市場。股市從2011年的高峰值下滑了20%，美國的經濟情況也沒有太多的改變。他開始減少手頭的指數看跌期權，增持基金中的公司股票。下午股市大漲之后，佛瑞斯特認為一切終于回歸正軌。當日，道瓊斯工業平均指數和標普500（S&P 500）均上漲近5%。

????By 2 o'clock last Wednesday, Tom Forester was feeling like a hero. The investor, the only stock mutual fund manager to make money in 2008, had just spent almost $10 million over 24 hours buying stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was showing big gains since its low that day. Then, in an instant, the index plunged 350 points and finished deep in the red. "And we're thinking, uh oh," says Forester, whose Forester Value fund (FVALX) is beating 98% of rivals this year.

????To understand how bizarre last week was not just for ordinary folk but even the planet's smartest investors, Forester's story is illustrative. He's not a day trader like many on Wall Street. He's a laid back Midwesterner who lives outside Chicago. He drives to work everyday in a 2006 Acura S.U.V. that he bought two years ago with 39,000 miles on it. He tends to buy stocks in quality companies that he can hold for a long time. Still, the stock market's wild swings last week left even Forester confused, shaken, and utterly exhausted.

Monday: Dow -5.6%

????Forester, 52, arrived at his office Monday expecting few aftershocks from Standard & Poor's downgrade of U.S. debt. "I didn't think it would be that big of a deal," he says. And for a while he was right. Stocks recovered a little soon after the open. "Then I was real wrong," he says. The Dow Jones Industrial Index finished Monday down 5.6%, its worst decline since the financial crisis.

????Forester has long believed the U.S. is at a crossroads. His investor letters are filled with worry over rising debts in America and Europe. He's questioned how much the Fed has accomplished with quantitative easing. With Congress gridlocked and interest rates already at zero, he also wonders whether government can do anything for the U.S. economy if it hits the skids.

????Since May, Forester has stockpiled cash and purchased index puts in his $160 million fund -- both moves that protect the fund during market declines -- because of his rising worries. The moves have been right so far. As of Friday, the fund had gained 0.5% in 2011 (compared to the S&P's 5.5% slump) to beat all but 13 of 1,115 fund rivals, says Morningstar.

????But after Monday's bloodbath, Forester was looking at the index puts and thinking, "Wow, I wish I had a lot more of these things."

Tuesday: Dow +4%

????He slept horribly Monday. On Tuesday he drove his usual 10 minutes into work listening to CNBC on satellite radio. Stock futures indicated that the market was coming back. He felt a little relief. But when stocks collapsed after a Fed announcement later that afternoon, he was paralyzed.

????"Is it 1987, when everything comes back over time, or is it 2008, when it's just the beginning?" Forester was thinking. He thought back to a rumor earlier in the week that the big French bank Société Générale was going under. "That is 2008-esque," he says.

????For all his worries, Forester had a nagging feeling Tuesday that he needed to act. He was turning bullish. Stocks were down 20% from their highs during 2011 and the U.S. economic news hadn't changed too much. He starting reducing the index puts and buying more shares of the companies in his fund. After a big afternoon run-up, Forester thought everything might be back on track. Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 index had gained nearly 5% on the day.