2019年意大利將走向衰退，原因如下

最新跡象顯示歐洲的第三大經濟體意大利再次瀕臨衰退——該國制造業已經連續第三個月滑坡。

IHS Markit的意大利制造業采購經理人指數（PMI）在2018年12月報49.2。好于經濟學家預測的48.4，但仍然低于50，也就是增長-收縮分界線。就業和商業信心指標也進一步惡化。

2018年民粹政府的高額開支計劃讓意大利備受沖擊——該計劃引發了意大利和歐盟之間的爭端，同時也推高了債券收益率。雖然爭議在最后一刻得以化解，但在歐元區經濟增長放慢、歐洲央行貨幣政策支持力度減弱以及美國帶頭實施貿易保護主義的情況下，氣氛依然緊張。

2018年12月意大利經濟的低迷表現以及爆發“黃背心”運動的法國出現2016年以來首次制造業滑坡給歐元區經濟走勢帶來壓力。歐元區PMI降至四年多以來的最低點，商業信心也降至2012年以來的最低水平。

中國已經受到了關稅的影響。2018年12月，中國工業產值減少，上周三公布的PMI創19個月新低。亞洲和歐洲股市告跌。

IHS Markit的報告顯示，意大利的商業信心降至六年來的最低水平，就業增速創四年新低。新訂單連續第五個月下降，制造商被迫減產。

IHS Markit的助理董事安德魯·哈克說：“年底的情況讓意大利制造商擔心。幾乎沒有人會樂觀地認為目前的疲態可以在短期內結束?！?/p>

政治

意大利聯合政府不穩定——它由以北方商業重鎮為首的反移民聯盟和反建制派五星運動組成，支持后者的選民則來自經濟蕭條的南部，這可能使2019年出現更多政治不確定因素。

意大利總統塞爾吉奧·馬塔雷拉在年終講話中批評政府迫使議會通過開支計劃，同時敦促兩個黨派確保今后進行充分討論。

意大利的困境凸顯出歐元區在實現融合方面依然面臨怎樣的困難，而今年1月1日正是歐元問世20周年。

意大利經濟一直走在歐元區其他成員國后面，2018年第三季度下跌0.1%。如果第四季度經濟繼續滑坡，則可以確認意大利在全球金融危機至今的10年中第三次陷入衰退。（財富中文網）

譯者：Charlie

審校：夏林

Italy’s manufacturing sector shrank for a third straight month in the latest sign that Europe’s third-largest economy is on the brink of yet another recession.

IHS Markit’s gauge of factory activity came in at 49.2 for December 2018. While that’s better than the 48.4 forecast by economists, it’s still below 50 — the dividing line between growth and contraction — and measures of employment and business confidence worsened.

The country was rocked in 2018 by the populist government’s heavy spending plans, which sparked a spat with the European Union and pushed up bond yields. The standoff was resolved at the final hour but unease remains amid a euro-area economic slowdown, less monetary support from the European Central Bank and U.S.-led protectionism.

Italy’s poor performance in December 2018 and the first contraction in French manufacturing since 2016 — amid protests by the so-called Yellow Vests — weighed on momentum in the euro area. The PMI for the region declined to its lowest in just over four years, with business confidence reaching its worst since 2012.

China is already suffering from the consequences of trade tariffs. Factory output contracted in December 2018, with a PMI reading on last Wednesday reaching the lowest in 19 months. Asian and European stocks dropped.

The IHS Markit report for Italy showed business sentiment at the weakest in six years and employment growth at the slowest in four years. New orders slid for a fifth month, prompting manufacturers to scale back production.

It’s a “worrying end to the year for Italian manufacturers,” said Andrew Harker, associate director at IHS Markit. “There appears little sense of optimism that the current soft patch will come to an end in the near future.”

Politics

The uneasy coalition between the anti-migration League, which is strongest in the business-rich north, and the anti-establishment Five Star Movement, with its electoral base in the depressed south, makes further political uncertainty possible in 2019.

In his year-end address, Italian President Sergio Mattarella took the government to task for ramming spending plans through parliament, urging both parties to ensure adequate debate in the future.

Italy’s woes highlight how the eurozone — which marked the 20th anniversary of the single currency on January 1, 2019 — is still struggling to deliver convergence.

The nation’s economy has persistently lagged behind the rest of the bloc and shrank 0.1 percent in the third quarter of 2018. A contraction in the final three months of 2018 would confirm the nation’s third recession since the global financial crisis a decade ago.