中本聰的真身找到了？原來不是日本人

《比特幣白皮書：一種點對點的電子現金系統》（Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Cash System）一文在互聯網橫空出世，距今已有十年時間。寫出這篇論文的天才所描繪的數字貨幣，如今的價值已經超過了1,000億美元，但他并未透露自己的身份，只留下了中本聰的化名。

如今的媒體每每描繪中本聰，總是離不開“神秘”這個形容詞。比特幣之所以傳奇，一個重要原因就在于我們永遠也無法真正得知誰才是這種著名加密貨幣的創造者。雖然如此，這份白皮書的作者究竟是誰，如今卻已有充足的證據。

如果你認同“奧卡姆的剃刀”（Occam’s razor）這個哲學原理，即最簡單的解決方案往往就是正確的那個，那么中本聰的身份就幾乎不存在疑問了——至少在筆者看來如此——他是一個50歲左右的美國人，名為尼克·紹博。

筆者第一次聽說這個人，是在六年前報道科技網站Gigaom的比特幣大會時。然后就像現在，加密貨幣的圈內人士不愿意公開表示紹博是中本聰，但是在私下的交談中，好幾個人向筆者透露：他們認為是紹博創造了比特幣。

許多外部證據都支持這一結論。權威記錄比特幣早期歷程的作品《數字黃金》（Digital Gold）的作者納撒尼爾·波普爾描述了紹博早期的文章如何描繪了比特幣的架構，在中本聰的比特幣白皮書發表后不久，他如何邀請其他人幫助他“編碼一個”。

他的個人經歷也很符合。與其他疑似中本聰的人（很快就會討論到他們）不同，紹博的專業背景很對口。他是一位計算機專家，一位熟練的密碼員，據說也是名法學學者。他自由主義的世界觀也與中本聰一致，后者在比特幣的第一個區塊鏈中編碼了一條譴責銀行緊急援助的消息。我在今年紐約的金融會議上見到紹博時，他正大談隱私問題，以及對于不需要信任第三方的金融系統的需求——這是中本聰白皮書中的核心觀點。

所有這一切都表明中本聰就是紹博。不過至少在我看來，讓這一結論擺脫嚴重質疑的，是2014年的一次語言分析。這次語言分析由英國阿斯頓大學（Aston University）司法語言學中心（Centre for Forensic Linguistics）展開，他們將中本聰的論文與12位被認為可能是比特幣創造者的作品進行了對比。結論呢？“語言學上看，紹博的作品與比特幣白皮書的相同點多得不可思議，其他候選人遠不能及?！?/font>

It’s 10 years to the day since a paper titled “Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Cash System” first turned up on the Internet. The genius who wrote the paper, which describes a digital currency that is now worth over $100 billion, did not identify himself but instead used the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto.

The press today rarely describes Nakamoto without using the word “mysterious,” and it’s a mainstay of Bitcoin lore that we’ll never really know who created the famous cryptocurrency. Nonetheless, the evidence is overwhelming about who wrote the white paper.

If you subscribe to the philosophy principle known as Occam’s razor, which holds that the simplest solution tends to be the correct one, there’s little doubt—in my mind, at least—as to Nakamoto’s identity: He is a 50-something American named Nick Szabo.

I first heard of Szabo six years ago covering Bitcoin conferences for the tech site Gigaom. Then, as now, crypto insiders are reluctant to publicly state that Szabo is Satoshi but, in private conversations, several confided to me they think Szabo created Bitcoin.

There’s also plenty of external evidence to support this. Nathaniel Popper, whose book Digital Gold provides the canonical account of Bitcoin’s beginnings, has described how Szabo’s earlier writing described the architecture of Bitcoin, and how he asked others to help him “code one up” shortly before the Nakamoto white paper appeared.

There’s also the matter of biography. Unlike several other Satoshi suspects (more on that in a minute), Szabo’s background fits. He’s a computer savant and an accomplished cryptographer, and is reportedly a legal scholar as well. His libertarian worldview is also consistent with Satoshi, who encoded a message in the first block on Bitcoin’s blockchain decrying bank bailouts. When I saw Szabo appear at a financial conference in New York this year, he spoke primarily of privacy and the need for a financial system that didn’t require trusting a third party—central precepts of the Satoshi white paper.

All of this points to Satoshi being Szabo. But what pushes the conclusion beyond serious doubt, in my mind at least, is a 2014 linguistic analysis. That analysis, performed by the Aston University Centre for Forensic Linguistics in the UK, compared the writing style in the Satoshi paper to 12 people identified as possible creators of Bitcoin. The conclusion? “The number of linguistic similarities between Szabo’s writing and the Bitcoin whitepaper is uncanny, none of the other possible authors were anywhere near as good of a match.”

On the basis of the Occam’s Razor principle, Satoshi is Szabo. By the same token, the case for other Satoshi suspects is far more convoluted and therefore far less probable.

The website Breaker last week published “Desperately Seeking Satoshi,” a helpful history of journalists’ attempts to identify Bitcoin’s creator. As the recap makes clear, none of the other candidates come close to fitting the bill. This includes Craig Wright, who is the only one to claim he is Satoshi, but whose technical claims to support his case have proven false, and who has been reviled as a liar by many in the crypto community, including Vitalik Buterin.

This leaves Szabo as the only serious candidate to be Satoshi. (Is the proof indisputable? No. Am I convinced? Absolutely.) There is, though, one serious objection to closing the case: Szabo has repeatedly denied he is Bitcoin’s creator. “All this speculation is flattering, but wrong—I am not Satoshi,” Szabo wrote to Popper in 2015.

What to make of the denial? Two points. First, “Satoshi” has very good reasons not to identify himself. Namely, wallets on the blockchain tied to Satoshi contain more than 1 million Bitcoins, which is a fortune worth billions of dollars. Revealing himself as Satoshi would instantly invite the scrutiny of governments, tax agents and a hoard of criminals—maintaining a mask of anonymity is the much safer bet. Likewise, for a person like Szabo who values privacy (several accounts describe him as a recluse), claiming the mantle of Satoshi would transform him into a celebrity besieged by media and fanboys.

The second reason for Satoshi to preserve anonymity is more subtle but also important. Namely, it would undercut the marvelous origin story of Bitcoin. Like many religions, Bitcoin’s appeal is in part tied to its mystery. Bitcoin believers and journalists alike love the Satoshi Nakamoto myth, and reducing it to a more pedestrian story of an American who published a paper would make the whole thing less fun.

So even though there is persuasive evidence that Satoshi Nakamoto is Nick Szabo, the consensus remains that Bitcoin’s creation is a mystery. Everyone likes it better than way. But let’s take one day at least, on this tenth anniversary of Bitcoin, to congratulate Szabo on his marvelous cryptocurrency and a job well done.