失業率降低，經濟提速，為什么特朗普還要大搞貿易戰？

特朗普對價值2,000億美元的中國商品進行新一輪征稅的議案已經在上周四結束了公眾意見征集期。這意味著25%的關稅政策隨時可能落地，盡管彭博社報道稱美國的大型科技公司和零售商正在做著最后的努力，試圖讓總統回心轉意。

思科（Cisco）和惠普（Hewlett-Packard）等公司表示，對中國的網絡設備征收額外關稅，最終會導致美國用戶的上網成本增加。美國零售業聯合會（National Retail Federation）表示生產商和中小型公司也會受到成本上漲的影響。中國宣稱，如果白宮堅持提高關稅，必將采取報復措施。這一切未知因素交織在一起，也難怪美國的首席執行官徹夜難眠了。

與此同時，特朗普現在還暗示要與日本開啟新一輪貿易糾紛。他說，自己與日本領導層關系不錯，不過“如果我告訴他們要付出怎樣的代價，這種關系就會畫上句號”。（順帶一提，這種“不錯的關系”包括特朗普提醒日本首相安倍晉三“我可還記得珍珠港事件”，以及威脅要送給后者“2,500萬墨西哥人”讓他很快下臺。）

所以，與美國存在未決爭端的國家不僅有中國，也有日本，此外還包括歐盟、土耳其、加拿大和墨西哥——直到美墨貿易協定的細節敲定，雙方簽字為止。

總統表示，這些斗爭是必要的，因為“幾乎每個與美國做生意的國家，都在貿易上讓美國損失了數十億美元”。不過與此同時，美國的經濟卻在持續發展，工作崗位不斷增加。今天的就業報告顯示的失業率可能會低達3.8%，而崗位數量增速放緩，也主要是因為沒有那么多人來填補空缺的崗位。盡管高盛（Goldman Sachs）預測由于關稅的不確定性，一些公司也會暫緩招聘。

全世界都在等待特朗普的貿易決定，而亞洲市場惶恐不安也并不令人驚訝。不過會受到損失的，很可能不止是總統的貿易對手。（財富中文網）

譯者：嚴匡正?

The public comment period for President Donald Trump’s proposed new round of tariffs on Chinese goods—worth an escalation-tastic $200 billion this time—ended Thursday. That means the 25% levies could start to hit any time now, although Bloomberg reports that big American tech companies and retailers have been making a last-minute effort to change the president’s mind.

Companies such as Cisco and Hewlett-Packard say tariffs on Chinese networking equipment will ultimately make it more expensive for American consumers to access the Internet. The National Retail Federation says manufacturers and small-to-mid-sized firms will also bear the brunt of raised costs. China is promising to retaliate if the White House moves ahead with the new tariffs. No surprise that U.S. CEOs are losing sleep over all the unknowns being thrown into the mix.

Meanwhile, Trump is now hinting at a new trade rumble with Japan. He has good relations with the Japanese leadership, he said, but “of course that will end as soon as I tell them how much they have to pay.” (Those good relations, incidentally, have reportedly included Trump telling Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe “I remember Pearl Harbor” and threatening to depose him by sending him “25 million Mexicans.”)

So add Japan to the pile of unresolved disputes that includes not only China but the European Union, Turkey, Canada and—until the fine print is out and the ink dry—Mexico.

The president says these battles are necessary because the U.S. is “losing many billions of dollars on trade with virtually every country it does business with,” but, at the same time, the U.S. economy continues to boom and jobs continue to be added. Today’s jobs report is expected to show an unemployment rate of just 3.8%, with growth in new jobs slowing mainly because there aren’t enough people out there to fill all the vacant positions—though Goldman Sachs also reckons some companies are delaying new hires because of tariff uncertainty.

As the world awaits Trump’s trade decision, it’s no surprise to see jitters in Asian markets. But it may well be that the president’s trade opponents aren’t the only ones here with something to lose.