后膠片時代的探索之路：“柯達幣”能否讓柯達咸魚翻身？
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作為膠片時代的天之驕子，柯達在數碼時代教科書式的隕落給我們留下了很多警醒。死而不僵的柯達是否還有憑借“大殺器”重回巔峰的可能？ 最近柯達公司推出了一種名叫“柯達幣”的數字加密貨幣，以及一個用于對照片進行存儲、驗證和版權管理的平臺。這也是柯達進軍數字加密貨幣領域的首次嘗試。 今日的柯達在數字加密貨幣領域沖勁十足，與以前應對變革大勢時遲鈍木訥的老柯達形成了鮮明對比。在當年的膠片時代，柯達滿足于蹭蹭往上漲的營收和市場占有率，幾乎是坐視富士等競爭對手在數碼照片市場攻城掠地而不動如山?？逻_此次在數字加密貨幣上的發力也讓投資者驚喜不已，受此影響，柯達股價幾乎翻了三倍。不過也有些批評人士認為，柯達的數字加密貨幣新戰略雖然搏人眼球，卻沒有什么實際價值。不過從現實來看，現在就評價這一戰略的成敗還為時過早。 柯達的數字加密貨幣戰略是有可能創造價值的，不過這取決于它的新產品和服務是否能得到很好的部署，以及其目標市場和競爭對手的反應。 首先，讓我們來細數柯達公司最近的幾大動態：一是推出了一個照片存儲、版權管理和支付交易管理平臺，二是對“柯達幣”進行了首次公開發幣（ICO）。 版權管理平臺 為了重新吸引攝影愛好者，該平臺不僅能儲存照片，還具備防盜圖功能?？逻_公司甚至表示，該平臺還可以通過“持續網頁搜索”技術主動防止盜圖行為。隨著攝影愛好者越來越關注版權相關問題，該平臺的技術顯然是具有很大潛力的。 問題是：柯達的這項技術是不是像它承諾的這樣好用？它是否比現在流行的水印等版權保護技術更先進？它的持續搜索技術防止網絡盜圖的效率怎樣？要想達到比較好的效果，就需要強大的圖像處理能力來識別相同或相似圖像。如果柯達確實在這方面做得很好，它很可能將成為一個攝影愛好者趨之若鶩的平臺，為各方均創造價值。 基于平臺的交易 除了保護照片版權，柯達還希望攝影師能與客戶在同一平臺上進行交易，而不是通過第三方支付系統（比如Paypal或Venmo）進行交易。理論上講，這種一站式交易會賦予用戶更大的便利性，同時柯達也能對用戶行為有更大的控制權，并且掌握更多的有用數據。 比如說，柯達公司通過研究交易行為，可以判斷哪些攝影師和哪些攝影領域更加高產、更加受網友歡迎，然后以他們作為特定產品（相機、鏡頭等）和服務的主要目標。不過這仍然需要柯達在平臺上一些優于競爭對手的賣點，比如免手續費（如Venmo）、安全性（如Paypal）、便利性（如Paypal和Venmo）等。當然要想盈利并不容易?？逻_是否會在平臺上基于信用卡交易收取手續費？用戶交了錢，是否能收到滿意的產品？這些都有待觀察。 柯達幣 隨著“柯達幣”于1月底ICO，柯達也將正式進入加密數字貨幣這個時下大火的行業。不過目前這一領域已經被比特幣等少數幣種主宰?？逻_為什么要走數字加密貨幣這一步呢？有種看法認為，發行數字貨幣是一種低成本融資的方法，以柯達目前的融資能力，靠傳統方式融資顯然是有些吃力的。不過除了融資目的之外，這一戰略還能促進購幣者成為柯達平臺的早期采用者。另外柯達平臺上的用戶（攝影師和客戶）越多，平臺上的柯達幣用戶也就會越多，二者將相成為相輔相成的關系。 不過新平臺也好，新貨幣也罷，也都會面臨自己的“二十二條軍規”——沒有用戶，它們是很難增長的。在當前時代，你要想獲得大量用戶，本身就得先擁有大量用戶?？逻_幣的ICO可以激勵那些已經在平臺上投資的人，使他們成為柯達品牌和柯達幣的“大使”。目前來看，柯達公司似乎打的是這樣兩個如意算盤：第一，柯達幣的成功不會受“比特幣泡沫”的影響而導致柯達幣貶值，并造成柯達公司或投資者在短期內蒙受較大損失；第二，富士公司等競爭對手不會攜更好的平臺或相似的數字貨幣產品進入該領域。這樣看來，柯達不管發行的是什么幣，這都不啻于一場豪賭。 如前所述，盡管人們對柯達的數字貨幣政策有各種預期，但現在還很難說局面將向何處發展。不過對這些新產品及其背景的分析表明，柯達是可以通過它們創造價值的。只是柯達公司必須記住，第一個宣布建立平臺的人，未必一定能獲得先行優勢和網絡效應，它們往往只屬于那些提供了最高產品質量的競爭者。（財富中文網） 本文作者Sarit Markovich是美國西北大學克洛格管理學院的商業策略學副教授。 譯者：樸成奎? |
Can Kodak, best known these days as a textbook case of failing to adjust to the Digital Age, make the ultimate comeback? That’s the question raised by the company’s recent debut of KodakCoin and a digital platform for storage, authentication, and rights-management of photographs—a foray into the surging domains of blockchain technology and cryptocurrency. On one hand, the move seems to represent a stark contrast to the Kodak of old, which stood by and watched Fuji and other competitors capitalize on the advent of digital photos while its own revenue and share of the photography market imploded. Investors have rewarded the move by tripling Kodak’s stock price. On the other, critics have argued that Kodak’s new strategy, while attention-grabbing, creates little real value. In reality, it’s too early to tell. Kodak’s strategy could create value—but it depends on how well the iconic business deploys the new products and services, and the reactions of their target market and competitors. Let’s consider these dynamics for the related offerings in question: one platform for photo storage and rights management, along with payment/transaction management; and the initial coin offering (ICO) for KodakCoin. Rights-management platform Kodak (KODK, +8.33%) wants to attract photographers with a platform that will not only house their pictures, but protect them from unauthorized use. The company is even touting technology that will search proactively for infringement through “continual web-crawling” and alert users. There is large potential value here, as this solves mounting rights-related problems for photographers. The caveat: The Kodak technology has to work as promised. Will it be superior to current means of rights protection, such as digital watermarks? How well will the technology crawl the web to spot rights-infringement? This requires strong image-processing technology to identify identical or similar images. If done well, it will likely become a go-to platform for photographers, creating value for all parties. Platform-based transactions Beyond protecting the rights to pictures, Kodak wants to enable photographers—small sellers—to transact with customers on the same platform that houses their images, rather than through outside payment processors such as Paypal (PYPL, +0.98%) or Venmo. In theory, that would afford users greater convenience—one-stop transactions—while providing Kodak valuable control over more user activities, along with a trove of usable data. For example, the business could study transactions to identify more popular, higher-volume photographers or field of photography and target them with specific products (cameras and lenses), services, and offers. But again, Kodak has to offer something superior than what’s already out there. In this case, that means free (like Venmo), protected (like Paypal), convenient (like Paypal and Venmo) transactions for users. That’s challenging to do profitably —will Kodak pick up fees to credit-card-based funds onto the platform, for example? Will Kodak be liable for transferred funds that were not rewarded with a satisfying product? KodakCoin With the end-of-January ICO of KodakCoin, the business is entering the cryptocurrency domain, a market all over the headlines, but already dominated by Bitcoin and others. Why is Kodak making this move? One argument is that it’s a cheap way to access capital—something Kodak may not be able to do easily from traditional investors these days. Beyond generating cash, the strategy can provide incentive for buyers of the new currency to be the early adopters of the Kodak platform: The more users of the platform (photographers and customers), the more KodakCoin users there are, and thus the greater the value of both. But new online platforms—and cryptocurrencies, for that matter—always face a Catch-22: They can’t grow without users, and it’s hard to get lots of users without a critical mass of them in the first place. The ICO could act to motivate those who’ve already invested in the platform to act as ambassadors of the Kodak brand, and thus of KodakCoin. But Kodak is likely betting that (1) any success with the cryptocurrency won’t be based on a mounting “Bitcoin bubble,” resulting in devaluation of the coin, and thus large, near-term losses for Kodak and the investors, and (2) players like Fuji won’t enter the market with a better platform or currency offerings. That may be a substantial bet, whatever the currency it’s made with. As suggested earlier, despite all the prognostication about Kodak’s new crypto strategy, it’s hard to say exactly what will happen. But analysis of the new offerings and their context suggests that Kodak could drive value with them. The business just has to remember that “first announcer” of a new platform doesn’t necessarily get first-mover advantages and network effects. Those usually go to an early player with the highest-quality offerings. Sarit Markovich is clinical associate professor of strategy at The Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University. |
