關于特朗普的新預算草案，你需要知道的6件事

本周二，白宮首次批露了2018財年（從2017年10月1日起，到2018年9月30日止）的預算草案。該草案的標題為“為美國的偉大奠定新的基礎”。該預算草案計劃在2027年前削減3.6萬億美元的政府支出，從而實現預算的收支平衡，同時將美國的年經濟增長率提高至3%。

美國行政管理和預算局局長米克·馬爾瓦尼本周一在新聞吹風會上對記者表示：“這是很長時間以來，美國政府第一次站在納稅人的視角編寫預算?！?/p>

當然，雖然白宮的這份預算草案已經“欽定”了，但這并不等于它就會自動變成法律——情況遠非如此。國會的參眾兩院也都有自己的預算委員會，他們也都會編寫自己的預算草案，然后排隊等國會審批。經過國會審批同意的草案也只能叫做決議，而不是法律。國會會在這個決議的基礎上推動立法，而法律通過與否，則不是總統的簽字能說了算的了。

本周六，特朗普政府的官員就要攜帶這份草案去國會山了。關于這份“白宮欽定版”的預算草案，有六件事是你應該知道的。

該預算要求提供六星期的帶薪育兒假

該草案提議，為新為人父母的爸爸媽媽們（包括養父母們）提供6周的帶薪育兒假，并建議各州制定自己的“最適合其勞動力市場和經濟狀況”的育兒假政策。

據白宮透露，這項倡議是由“第一女兒”伊萬卡·特朗普提出的。伊萬卡成立了一個跨部門的工作小組來研究一系列問題，這個問題也是其中之一。不過這個倡議很可能在國會上遭到兩黨的共同反對。首先，強制帶薪假的話題很少會在共和黨議員中獲得支持。而一些民主黨人則表示這個計劃是不充分的。

康乃狄克州民主黨議員羅莎·德勞羅表示：“對于刻苦工作的美國人來說，政府的這項計劃沒有通盤地考慮這個問題的解決方法。我們需要的是這樣的一項政策：它所提供的帶薪假，不僅要考慮到剛出生或收養的小孩，也要考慮到照顧重病或受傷的家人的需要——這其中也包括父母和孩子。另外它也應該考慮到勞動者自己遭遇健康問題，或是軍婚家庭等情況?！?/p>

從對赤字的預期看，奧巴馬醫改或被廢止，而稅收改革可能將通過

馬爾內尼說，能夠減少赤字的最大因素，在于前總統奧巴馬的醫改法能否被廢止。不過共和黨自己提出的《美國醫保法案》（American Health Care Act）也只是在眾議院獲得了險勝，而且可以說很不受歡迎。就連參議院里的共和黨議員也不急著對它投票，而是任由它慢慢地在那里走法律流程。

至于眾議院通過的這版《美國醫保法案》會帶來哪些影響，國會預算局至今沒有發布它的預測，不過有關預測本周三就將發布。因此，它到底能讓赤字下降多少，以及奧巴馬醫改究竟是不是會被廢除，可能到時就能看出端倪了。

穆爾瓦尼還表示，新預算草案還考慮到了稅改的因素。不過雖然特朗普政府的官員和國會的共和黨領導人們紛紛表示，稅改將成為美國立法的優先要務，然而稅改卻始終是雷聲大雨點小。華盛頓的關注點似乎都被特朗普解雇聯邦調查局局長詹姆斯·科梅這個爆炸性新聞吸引去了。

醫療補助可能將被大幅削減

根據白宮的預算草案，只要各州認為合適，就可以通過固定撥款的方式，拿到醫療補助計劃的放款控制權。這與目前版本的《美國醫保法案》保持了一致。據國會預算局估算，這最終將使美國醫療補助計劃的支出被削減8800億美元。

該預算草案還提出，政府要禁止向任何提供墮胎和計劃生育服務的組織撥款。馬爾瓦尼表示，如果《美國醫保法案》正式形成法律，政府將切斷對計劃生育組織的撥款——因為《美國醫保法案》里有一條就是這樣規定的。

但是，該提案不包括削減核心的社會保障福利和聯邦醫療保險。

對食品券等福利計劃的限制可能會更加嚴格

該預算草案建議收緊對食品券等社會福利計劃的限制，以增加勞動力市場中的勞動者人數和促進經濟發展。這個“補充營養援助項目”（SNAP）有個更廣為人知的名稱——食品券。該項目最多可能被砍掉1930億美元。

馬爾瓦尼表表示：“我們得讓人們去工作。如果你靠食品券度日，你的身體又很健康，那么我們就得讓你去工作。如果你身體沒有殘疾，卻靠領殘疾保險度日，那我們也得讓你去工作。我們需要大家都朝著同一個方向前進?！?/p>

花更多的錢用于邊境安全

白宮的這份預算草案計劃為國土安全部撥款441億美元，其中有26億美元將用于邊界的基礎設施和相關技術，包括特朗普在大選期間多次承諾要修建的美墨邊境墻。

這筆錢估計將是國會里爭議最大的部分了。由于國內兩黨的主流意見都反對修墻，因而兩黨此前已經在國會達成了共識，至少在2017財年的剩余時間里，特朗普是拿不到修長城的錢了。

增加軍費

在2018年的預算草案中，特朗普要求國會撥款540億美元用于國防開支，其中520億美元由國防部分配。美軍將用這筆錢增兵56,400人，以及購買戰斗機和艦艇等武器裝備。（財富中文網）

譯者：樸成奎

The White House on Tuesday will release its budget blueprint for the 2018 fiscal year, which begins Oct. 1. Titled "A New Foundation for American Greatness," the budget calls for $3.6 trillion in spending reductions to balance the budget by 2027 and lift annual economic growth to 3%.

"This is the first time in a long time an administration has written a budget through the eyes of the people actually paying the taxes," Office of Management and Budget Director Mick Mulvaney told reporters Monday during a briefing.

Of course, this doesn't mean the budget the White House proposes automatically becomes law — far from it. The budget committees in each chamber of Congress still have to write their own blueprints, which Congress will have to approve. And the budget that Congress passes is a resolution, not a law — it is the framework under which Congress will work to pass legislation, and doesn't require the President's signature.

Here are six things to know about the new version of the White House budget, which members of the Trump Administration will take to Capitol Hill to promote this week.

The budget calls for six weeks of paid family leave

The budget proposes six weeks of paid family leave for new mothers and fathers, including adoptive parents, and suggests states establish their own parental leave policies "most appropriate for their workforce and economy."

The measure was orchestrated by First Daughter Ivanka Trump, according to the White House, who created an interagency working group for a variety of issues, including this one. The proposal is likely to face stiff opposition in Congress on both sides of the aisle. Mandated paid family leave rarely garners support among Republican lawmakers, and some Democrats are already arguing the plan is insufficient.

"The Administration’s plan does not address the issue in the comprehensive way that is needed for hard working Americans," Connecticut Democratic Rep. Rosa DeLauro said. “We need a policy that includes paid time off to care for a seriously ill or injured family member, which includes parents and children, as well as for workers who themselves have a serious health issue and for military families — not just for the birth or adoption of a child."

Its rosy deficit projections assume Obamacare will be repealed and tax reform will pass

Mulvaney said the biggest factor in decreasing the deficit will be the repeal of former President Barack Obama's health care reform law. But the Republican repeal law, the American Health Care Act, has only passed narrowly the House, it remains hugely unpopular, and Senate Republicans have been in no rush to bring it to a vote in the upper chamber, content to go through their own legislative process.

The Congressional Budget Office has not even released its projections for the impact that the House-passed version of the AHCA would have — it is slated to do so on Wednesday. So the projections for deficit reduction could change based on how the health care debate unfolds, and whether or not Obamacare actually gets repealed.

Mulvaney also said a deficit-neutral tax reform was factored in. But even as Trump Administration officials and Republican leaders in Congress have identified tax reform as a key legislative priority, little progress has been made amid chaos in Washington over Trump's firing of FBI Director James Comey and its aftermath.

Medicaid could be in for some big cuts

Under the White House budget, states would assume control for the provision of Medicaid through block grants they could distribute as they see fit. This is aligned with the current version of the American Healthcare Act, which the CBO estimates will ultimately cut Medicaid by $880 billion.

The budget also prohibits any funding for groups that provide abortions, including Planned Parenthood. Mulvaney said the budget defunds Planned Parenthood on the assumption that the American Healthcare Act — which has a provision to defund the organization — will become law.

But the proposal does not include any cuts to core Social Security benefits and Medicare.

Restrictions on welfare programs like food stamps could get tighter

The budget will recommend tightening restrictions on eligibility for assistance programs — like food stamps — in an effort to increase the number of people in the workforce and grow the economy. The SNAP program better known as food stamps is up for a $193 billion cut.

"We need people to go to work," Mulvaney said. "If you're on food stamps and you're able bodied we need you to go to work. If you're on disability insurance and you're not supposed to be — you're not truly disabled — we need you to go to work. We need everybody pulling in the same direction.

The budget has more money for border security

The White House budget would allocate $44.1 billion for the Department of Homeland Security, $2.6 billion of which would go toward border infrastructure and technology, including the border wall Trump repeatedly promised to build during the campaign.

This will likely be one of the more contentious parts of the budget hashed out in Congress. Legislation signed authorizing spending through the rest of the 2017 fiscal year excluded funding for a border wall after the measure encountered opposition on both sides of the aisle.

And more money for the military

Trump is requesting $54 billion for defense spending in his 2018 budget, $52 billion of which would go toward the Department of Defense. The spending would go toward growing military ranks by 56,400 service members, and investing in fighter planes and ships.