油價為何將失去上漲動力？

2017年1月5日，印尼雅加達，加油站的加油業務

出于對美國頁巖油產量迅速反彈的擔憂，新年剛剛進入第二周，石油價格便開始搖搖欲墜。在兩個月來的大部分時間，對于歐佩克協議的樂觀情緒支撐著油價，但投機商們的樂觀情緒已經初步表現出消退的跡象，這也提高了油價上漲將失去動力的可能性。

上周末有報道顯示，美國鉆井數量再次穩步增長，石油行業油田鉆井數量已經連續10周保持增長，因此在周一，西德克薩斯中質油和布倫特原油在當日交易中下跌超過2.5%。除了去年10月的一個星期外，從2016年6月開始，美國石油行業的鉆井數量一直在增加，這一不平常的趨勢所帶來的結果是，美國現在已經新增200多座石油鉆井。即便當石油價格穩定在每桶50至55美元左右時，鉆井數量依舊在增加。

2017年伊始，同時出現了兩個重要的趨勢，推動著市場向兩個相反的方向發展。歐佩克的協議計劃減少市場石油供應，而美國的鉆探活動預計將增加新的供應。這兩個趨勢的速度和量級，最終將決定油價的走勢。

樂觀的一面是，已經有初步跡象顯示，歐佩克成員國將遵守承諾。沙特阿拉伯在上周宣布，1月將石油產量減少486,000桶/天，這也是其在去年11月的協議中承諾削減的產量。這意味著，沙特的石油產量將下降到每天1,005.8萬桶，在1月至6月期間，利雅得的平均產量僅需維持到這一水平即可。提前削減產量表明了沙特的誠意，也增加了歐佩克遵守承諾的可能性。

除此之外，科威特駐歐佩克的代表說，卡塔爾、科威特和阿曼也將遵守削減產量的協議。在接受彭博社采訪時，科威特的納維爾·阿爾-費塞亞表示，這些國家已經告知客戶它們即將執行削減產量的計劃。阿爾-費塞亞稱：“在削減產量階段，可以對油田進行維護?！彼硎?，科威特的石油產量將從去年12月的289萬桶/天，減少至1月底的270萬桶/天。

伊拉克位于波斯灣的南部港口在去年12月的石油出口量創歷史新高的新聞，曾經引起了市場分析師的關注，但這一數據與伊拉克是否會遵守產量削減協議無關。伊拉克石油部長賈巴爾·阿魯艾比通過電子郵件對彭博社表示：“平均出口量創紀錄，并不影響伊拉克從2017年開始削減產量的決心。伊拉克將致力于實現產油國的共同目標，以控制全球市場的石油供應過剩?！?

雖然現在說仍為時尚早，但所有跡象均表明，歐佩克遵守產量削減承諾的決心，比市場分析師預期的更為強烈。這預示著供應過剩將不斷縮小，最終實現供不應求，降低庫存。換言之，歐佩克將成功給石油價格施加上行壓力。

但天平的另一方面，則是美國鉆探速度加快，鉆井數量持續增加。據美國能源信息署（EIA）每周的調查顯示，美國的石油產量從夏季的低谷增加了約300,000桶/天，而在未來幾個月，隨著鉆探活動加快，石油供應還會繼續增多。

目前尚無法確定，美國日益提高的供應與歐佩克不斷削減的產量，最終將如何抵消。當前的普遍觀點是，在2017年上半年，市場狀況將不斷收緊，但下半年的不確定性大增，不過目前仍然需要拭目以待。

現在可以確定的是，石油投機商大規模做多石油，已經使原油價格面臨短期下行風險。據路透社報道，去年12月的最后一周，對沖基金和其他財富管理機構累積的西德克薩斯中質油和布倫特原油凈多頭頭寸已經相當于7.96億桶，幾乎比11月中旬增加了一倍。很顯然，歐佩克的協議將刺激對石油價格上漲的投機行為，而這通常意味著原油價格的實際上漲，這并非巧合。

但目前，石油空頭頭寸非常少，同時已經建立起規模龐大的多頭頭寸。我們由此可以得出兩個結論，這兩個結論都將看跌油價： 目前已經沒有太多做多的資金，因此降低了油價繼續上漲的可能性； 目前價格回落的可能性非常高。事實上，在最近有可用數據的一周，凈多頭的頭寸已經略有減少，進一步證明看漲押注可能已經達到最高峰?，F在只需要一些看跌的消息，便會引發價格的下跌趨勢。

未來幾周，可能突然出現一些次要的令人擔憂的油價信號，加劇看空行情。美國能源部（DOE）在1月9日宣布將出售其戰略石油儲備，計劃在2月、3月和4月，出售800萬桶。與此同時，據最新數據顯示，在利比亞主要出口碼頭重新開放之后，其石油出口量將迅速增長，石油產量大幅增長至700,000桶/天，其在去年11月的產量為580,000桶/天，而在去年夏天，利比亞產量開始恢復之前的出口量為300,000桶/天。此外，與利比亞一樣不參與歐佩克協議的尼日利亞，也計劃恢復生產。不過，其國內的跨尼日爾管道（Trans Niger Pipeline）于近期關閉，石油工人工會可能舉行罷工，尼日爾河三角洲復仇者（Niger Delta Avengers）又宣布將在今年繼續發起攻擊，因此，尼日利亞恢復生產的工作可能會面臨困難。事實上，在去年12月，由于這些問題的影響，尼日利亞的產量似乎已經開始下降，減少了200,000桶/天，降至145萬桶/天。但如果尼日利亞能夠克服這些問題，其潛在的生產能力可能隨時爆發。

周末，波斯灣的混亂并沒有影響石油價格，也表明油價沒有太多上漲的空間。一艘美國驅逐艦對伊朗船只進行了三次警告性射擊，在過去，這種事件可能會引發原油價格的大幅波動，雖然可能持續時間較短。相反，市場對此事件不屑一顧——在事件發生后的首個交易日，西德克薩斯中質油和布倫特原油價格因為不相關的消息出現了下跌。瑞穗證券美國公司（Mizuho Securities USA Inc.）期貨部門總監鮑勃·楊格爾對彭博社表示：“市場現在處于超買的狀態，面臨著巨大的下行壓力。美國軍艦在霍爾木茲海峽射擊伊朗船只，并未對市場造成影響。如果在幾年前，油價肯定會因此上漲一兩美元?！保ㄘ敻恢形木W）

譯者：劉進龍/汪皓

Refueling activities at gas stations in Jakarta, Indonesia on January 5, 2017.

Oil prices faltered at the start of the second week of the year, as fears set in about a rapid rebound in U.S. shale production. For the better part of two months, optimism surrounding the OPEC deal has buoyed oil prices, but bullish sentiment from speculators are showing early signs of abating, raising the possibility that the oil rally is running out of steam.

WTI and Brent sank more than 2.5 percent in intraday trading on Monday, after a report at the end of last week showed another solid build in the U.S. rig count, the tenth consecutive week that the oil industry added rigs back into the field. Aside from a single week in October, the U.S. oil industry has deployed more rigs in every week dating back to June, a remarkable run that has resulted in more than 200 fresh rigs drilling for oil. The gains in the rig count come even as oil prices have held steady in the mid—to low—$50s per barrel.

At the start of 2017, there are two major dynamics at play occurring at the same time, each pushing in opposite directions on the market. The OPEC deal is slated to take oil off the market, while U.S. drilling is expected to add new supply. The pace and magnitude of each trend will ultimately drive oil prices one way or the other.

On the positive side of the ledger, there are early signs that OPEC members are meeting their commitments. Saudi Arabia said last week that it is lowering its production in January by 486,000 barrels per day, a volume that it promised to cut as part of the November deal. That will take output down to 10.058 million barrels per day, a level that Riyadh was only required to meet as an average over the January to June time period. Cutting to that level ahead of time is a sign of good faith from Saudi Arabia, and increases the chances that OPEC will stay true to its promises.

On top of that, Kuwait’s envoy to OPEC said that Qatar, Kuwait and Oman were also complying with the cuts. In an interview with Bloomberg, Kuwait’s Nawal Al-Fezaia said that those countries already told customers that cuts were imminent. “It’s a good time to do maintenance on oil fields during production cuts,” Al-Fezaia said, noting that Kuwait will lower output from 2.89 mb/d in December to 2.7 mb/d by the end of January.

Market analysts paused a bit on news that Iraq’s oil exports from its southern ports on the Persian Gulf hit a record high in December, but the data has no bearing on whether or not Iraq will comply with the agreed upon cuts. “Achieving this record average will not affect Iraq’s decision to cut output from the beginning of 2017,” Oil Minister Jabbar Al-Luaibi told Bloomberg in an emailed statement. “Iraq is committed to achieving producers’ joint goals to control the oil glut in world markets.”

It is still early but all signs point to a stronger commitment from OPEC to adhere to the specifics of the cuts than market analysts might have given them credit for. That bodes well for a narrowing supply surplus—and ultimately a deficit—as well as falling inventories. In other words, OPEC is succeeding in putting upward pressure on prices.

However, the flip side of the equation is faster drilling from the U.S., where rig counts continue to climb. Oil output, according to EIA weekly surveys, is up roughly 300,000 bpd from summer lows, with more supply expected to come online in the months ahead as drilling picks up pace.

It is unclear, at this point, how rising U.S. supply and falling OPEC output will ultimately balance out. For now, the consensus seems to be tightening conditions in the first half of 2017, with much greater uncertainty in the second half, but that remains to be seen.

What is clear is that oil speculators have built up such a large bullish bet on oil that they have opened up crude to near-term downside risk. According to Reuters, hedge funds and other money managers amassed net-long positions in WTI and Brent equivalent to 796 million barrels in the last week of December, which was nearly double the amount from mid-November. The OPEC deal clearly fueled a huge speculative rush in rising oil prices, which, not coincidentally, corresponded with real gains in crude prices.

But at this point, there are very few short positions left in oil, while a massive volume of long bets have built up. That suggests two things, both of which are bearish for oil: there is not a lot of money left to go long, lowering the chances of further prices gains; and the potential for a correction in prices is very high at this point. Indeed, in the most recent week for which data is available, net-long positions declined a bit, raising the possibility that bullish bets have peaked. All it will take is a bit of bearish news to spark a downturn in prices.

There are a few minor worrying signs for oil prices that could crop up as additional bearish forces in the next few weeks. The U.S. DOE announced on January 9 a “notice of sale” from its strategic petroleum reserve, with plans to sell 8 million barrels for delivery over the course of February, March and April. Meanwhile, Libya is seeing rapid gains in oil exports after the reopening of a key export terminal, with output jumping to 700,000 bpd, according to the latest data, up sharply from the 580,000 it produced in November and the 300,000 bpd it exported before it started restoring output last summer. Moreover, Nigeria – which, like Libya, is exempt from the OPEC deal—is intent on restoring production. It may struggle to do that with the recent shuttering of the Trans Niger Pipeline, potential strikes from oil workers unions and the announcement from the Niger Delta Avengers that attacks will resume this year. In fact, production appears to have declined in December, falling 200,000 bpd to 1.45 mb/d, because of some of these issues. But if those problems can be overcome, Nigeria has latent production capacity that could come back online at some point.

And in a sign that there is not a lot of room on the upside, a kerfuffle in the Persian Gulf over the weekend did nothing to affect oil prices. A U.S. Navy destroyer fired three warning shots towards Iranian ships, an incident that in the past would have led to a sharp, even if brief, rally in crude prices. Instead, the markets shrugged off the incident—WTI and Brent sank on the first trading day after the event, on unrelated news. "The market is overbought and under a lot of downward pressure," Bob Yawger, director of the futures division at Mizuho Securities USA Inc., told Bloomberg. "The shots fired at the Iranian boats in the Strait of Hormuz didn’t do anything to the market. A few years ago that would have added a couple dollars to the price."