馬云駁唱衰中國論

阿里巴巴創始人馬云新近收購的《南華早報》最近刊登了一篇采訪稿，看好中國的馬云在其中就中國經濟侃侃而談。

對于中國GDP增長率從本世紀初的兩位數降至7%以下，馬云認為：“沒有理由指望規模這么大的經濟體能永遠保持這樣的增長速度。對中國來說，一直以這樣的速度發展也不好。經過了30多年的增長，用幾年時間來進行調整是合理的?！?/p>

盡管中國能否擺脫過去五年由債務驅動的增長模式，并且毫發無傷地完成轉型是目前經濟學界最熱門的話題，但許多人都會同意馬云的看法。

龍洲經訊聯合創始人葛藝豪本周預計，中國既不會迅猛發展，也不會出現崩盤，今后10年中國將“徐徐下滑，會很像20世紀90年代的日本”。在這期間中國將逐步削減巨大的企業債務，去年后者的規模已經是中國GDP的1.5倍以上（要知道，這還不包括同樣飛速增長的地方政府債務）。

馬云在發表正面評論前首先委婉批評了政府，暗示GDP增速有人為因素。

“有些人說實際[增長]數字可能只有5%。但就算只增長5%，當今世界也再沒有哪個同樣體量的經濟體能達到這樣的增速?！?/p>

的確如此，被馬云當做中國比較對象的實際上只有美國。和全球第三大經濟體日本相比，中國的經濟規模已經是前者的兩倍以上。印度的經濟增速最近超過了中國。去年第四季度，印度經濟增長了7.3%，中國為6.8%，但印度經濟總量依然只有中國的五分之一。

馬云說，中國的發展“還會讓大多數主要經濟體再眼紅15-20年”。

他用近期的消費數據來駁斥中國工業增速放慢的觀點：“傳統行業陷入困境，但我們也看到了國內消費、服務業以及高科技行業的增長，而且年輕人才正在涌向這些領域?！?/p>

馬云還說，中國脫離重工業會損失低技能就業機會，而快遞業將有助于吸收一些低技能勞動者。阿里巴巴支持快遞行業的力度很大，原因是據估計淘寶每個季度產生的包裹高達50億個。阿里巴巴支持的菜鳥物流曾預計，自身的年包裹遞送能力最快可在2021年達到1000億件。

馬云指出：“物流和快遞行業為低技能勞動者創造了充足的就業機會。我們的增長空間仍然很大?！保ㄘ敻恢形木W）

譯者：Charlie

校對：詹妮

For a China bull, Alibaba’s founder Jack Ma spouted sensible arguments about its economy in an interview published today with his newly purchasedHong Kong newspaper, the South China Morning Post.

On China’s double-digit GDP growth rates of the 2000s slowing to below 7%: “There is no reason to expect that an economy of such size can maintain such a growth rate indefinitely, nor is it good for China to continue to grow at such speed,” Ma said.“After more than 30 years’ growth, spending a few years to adjust its course is reasonable.”

Many would agree, though whether China can adjust its course away from the debt-fueled growth of the past half-decade and come out unscathed is now the hot topic among economists. Arthur Kroebel of Gavekal Dragonomics predicted this week China is headed for neither boom nor bust but will spend the next decade in “genteel decline, much as Japan has since the 1990s” as it whittles down a corporate debt mountain that passed 150% of GDP last year (note that that doesn’t even include the equally dazzling rise in local government debt in the meantime).

Ma waded into some criticism of the government, suggesting the headline GDP figure is manufactured, before he spun it positively.

“Some say the actual [growth] number could be just 5%. But even with 5% growth, there is no other economy of such size growing at that speed in today’s world.”

While that’s true, he’s really only including the U.S. as competition. China’s economy is already more than double the size of the world’s third-largest, Japan. India’s growth has outpaced China’s recently, hitting 7.3% in the fourth quarter to China’s 6.8%, but India’s economy remains just a fifth the size of China’s.

China’s growth will be “enviable to most other major economies for another 15 to 20 years,” Ma said.

He painted the recent consumer data as a rebuttal to the country’s industrial slowdown. “The traditional industries are struggling, but we also see growth in domestic consumption, the services industry and the hi-tech sector, and young talents are flocking to these areas.”

He also said delivery–an industry heavily supported by Alibaba in as much as its marketplaces are responsible for as many as 5 billion packages a quarter, according to estimates—would help absorb some of the low-skill jobs being lost amid China’s shift away from heavy industry. Cainiao, the Alibaba-backed logistics shipping company, has saidit expects to have the capacity to deliver 100 billion shipments a year as soon as 2021.

“The logistics and delivery industries create plenty of jobs for low-skilled workers,” Ma said. “We still have a lot of room for growth.”