對沖基金教父：中國經濟感覺就像在衰退

全球最大的對沖基金橋水公司創始人雷·達里奧認為，中國經濟正走向“某種衰退”，持續時間恐怕會長達三年。

世界第二大經濟體讓全球最大對沖基金的經理深感憂慮。他使用了“衰退”一詞。

雷·達里奧在全球對沖基金領域極具影響力。他一手創建的橋水公司如今掌管著多達1600億美元的資金。這位教父級大佬表示，中國經濟正走向“某種衰退”，持續時間恐怕會長達三年。達里奧表示，這將給全球經濟和美聯儲帶來難以估量的影響。

達里奧在瑞士達沃斯世界經濟論壇上表示：“中國將對世界經濟產生負面影響。中國正在進行周期性調整，全球的通縮壓力將由此加劇?！?/p>

達里奧稱，中國最大的問題在于國際收支平衡。目前，流出中國的資金遠遠多于流入資金。根據國際金融研究所的數據，2015年有高達6760億美元逃離中國。他還表示，多年的政府開支導致地方債務問題日益嚴峻。他說，盡管地方政府支出約占GDP的30%，但這些開支已經比地方政府預算高出20%。消除這些赤字，將使得中國GDP增速減少6個百分點，達里奧說。

對此，中國工商銀行董事長姜建清表示，中國的地方債務仍在可控范圍，盡管中國房地產存在供給過度的情況，但住宅正在迅速出售，對其他類型房地產的需求也在增長。此外，政府和消費者都有了更強的負債能力。政府數據顯示，一線城市的房價在過去幾個月有所增長，盡管中西部城市的房價仍在下跌。

達里奧表示：“中國的債務目前來看還不算太高，但債務增速正在超過收入增速，這種情況持續不了多久?！?/p>

達里奧并不認為中國經濟會出現負增長，或是接近負增長。不過，他認為，中國的經濟增速在接下來幾年將會降至5%或更低——感覺就像衰退一樣。中國政府為2015年設定的目標GDP增速是7%，但最終未能達成，而且許多西方經濟體擔心最終數據依然有所夸大。達里奧說：“多年前，我們曾經把日本3%的增速看作衰退。對中國來說，我認為這個基準線是5%?！?/p>

達里奧認為中國經濟從長期來看仍將有較好表現，從整體來看，監管部門和決策者在應對目前的經濟問題上做得很好。

高盛公司的蓋瑞·柯恩也參加了這次研討會。他表示，盡管中國政府下定決心要轉變經濟增長方式，但相較于政府開支，依靠消費支出拉動經濟往往要難得多。

柯恩表示：“大多數市場參與者都相信，人民幣匯率將在2016年走低?！?財富中文網)

譯者：嚴匡正

審校：任文科

It will definitely feel like one, even if Beijing’s statistics suggest otherwise.

The manager of the world’s largest hedge fund is worried about the world’s second-largest economy, and he’s using the R-word.

Ray Dalio, who heads the $160 billion hedge fund firm Bridgewater, says China’s economy is headed for a “sort-of recession,” that will last as long as three years. Dalio says the implications of that could be huge for the world economy, and the U.S. Federal Reserve.

“China is going to be a negative for the world economy,” says Dalio, who was talking on Thursday morning on a panel at the World Economic Forum. “China is going through a cyclical adjustment that will add to the world’s deflationary pressures.”

Dalio said China’s biggest problem is its balance of payments, with more money flowing out of the country than is coming in (around $676 billion left the country last year, according to the Institute for International Finance). Dalio also said China’s economy, after years of government spending, has a local debt problem. Dalio said that local government spending accounts for about 30% of GDP. Yet, Dalio says the average local government is now 20% over budget. Erasing those deficits, Dalio says, would cut six percentage points off of China’s GDP growth.

Jiang Jainqing, who is the head of board chairman of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China IDCBY 1.42% , the world’s biggest bank by assets, said that China’s local debt is manageable, and while there is a glut of real estate in China, houses are rapidly filling up, and demand is catching up for other properties. What’s more, the government and consumers have more capacity to borrow. Government data suggest house prices have been rising in the country’s top-tier cities for the last few months, although prices in cities further inland are still falling.

“China’s debt is not too high right now,” says Dalio. “But it’s growing faster than incomes and that’s not sustainable.”

Dalio doesn’t actually expect China’s growth rate to turn negative or even close to it. He does say, though, that the country’s economic growth will likely fall to 5% or lower for the next few years, and that that will feel like a recession. China’s government has targeted GDP growth around 7%, but undershot that in 2015, even according to figures that many western economists fear were inflated. “Years ago we used to describe 3% growth in Japan as a recession,” says Dalio. “For China, I think that level is 5%.”

Dalio still thinks China’s economy will do well in the long term, and that regulators and policy-makers have generally done a good job in dealing with the current economic troubles.

Goldman Sachs’ GS -1.37% Gary Cohn, who was also on the panel with Dalio, says the problem for China is that, as it makes the transition to a consumer economy, it is harder to generate spending than when growth was being driven by the government.

“Most market participants believe China’s currency will be lower at the end of 2016 than it is today,” says Cohn.