中國該反省自己的“非洲戰略”了！

第六屆中非合作論壇正在南非召開。該會議已有15年歷史，一直是中國和非洲國家確定投資、貿易以及融合事務的主要會議，而本次論壇則是習近平擔任中國國家主席后的第一屆。

面對非洲這個快速增長的大陸，作為全球第二大經濟體的中國，看來打算將在非投資再次提高一倍，中非關系由此可能更進一步。但這種關系對非洲的影響會一直像對中國那么好嗎？其他開始從中受益的國家可以學到些什么呢？

散播財富和投資

雖然中國國內經濟增長開始放緩，而且今后幾年預計“只能”實現個位數增長，但中國仍是全球經濟發展速度最快的經濟體之一。作為近幾十年經濟增長的標桿，中國越來越急于將自己的財富和影響力散播開來。中國經濟騰飛的部分原因就是獲得了大量的外商直接投資。

隨著中國逐漸接近全球最大經濟體這個角色，并承擔相應責任，流出中國的資金也越來越多。預計，中國很快就會超過美國，成為其他國家的最大投資者。

相關跡象之一就是中國牽頭設立了手握1000億美元資本金的亞投行，與世界銀行、國際貨幣基金組織形成三足鼎立之勢；另一個體現則是中巴經濟走廊，它西起巴基斯坦港口城市瓜達爾，東至中國新疆，相關協議的金額達到創紀錄的460億美元。

目前，中國的直接對外投資規模估計為5310億美元，其中4%（約220億美元）的資金進入了非洲，投入到了自然資源開采、金融、基礎設施、發電、紡織和家電等領域。這個數字乍看起來很小，但它對非洲經濟的影響重大而長遠，尤其對撒哈拉以南的非洲地區更是如此。目前，得到投資最多的有尼日利亞、蘇丹、南非和安哥拉。

除了投資項目，中國還迅速成為非洲的最大貿易伙伴。2014年，中非貿易額為1660億美元。這一指標還有望不斷上升，預計到2030年將達到1.7萬億美元。

就業機會難確保

然而，盡管規模巨大，但大多數投資對非洲的整體競爭力都有不利影響。這種情況可謂由來已久，一方面是由于，這些項目的基礎都是政府最高層領導人之間達成的協議，并未在競爭環境下進行透明招標；另一方面，這些合資項目的大多數員工一直都是中國人，這樣就難以實現在當地創造就業機會的承諾。

就算有些項目雇傭了非洲當地人，也常常無視當地法規和制度，有時會帶來很不安全的工作環境。比如，在中國經營的贊比亞銅礦山，只有工作滿兩年的員工才能配備安全帽，而且礦井中通風條件很差，致死事故時有發生。

大部分的中國在非項目會又由中國人獲得，他們會從一個項目轉到另一個項目。2000-2011年，由于中國勞動者不斷增多，南非人可能已經失去了7.5萬個工作機會。在尼日利亞，隨著中國低價紡織品的流入，有80%的尼日利亞紡織公司被迫關門歇業。

中國企業的違法行為可能也會影響非洲人對它們的印象。舉例來說，按照法律，25英畝（近8.1萬平方米）及以下的小范圍礦山開采只能由加納公民進行，然而，許多中國人與當地土地所有者合作進行黃金開采，全然不顧加納法律的約束。由此產生的結果是，許多非洲人都覺得自己正在被外來者所利用。

單方面貿易隱憂

可能更糟的是，在中國和非洲之間流通的商品也沒能改變對中國投資的擔憂。

中國從非洲購買的主要是自然資源，比如礦產和金屬；非洲國家從中國進口的則以各類成品為主，包括機械、電器、塑料和橡膠等。這樣的交易可能對雙方都有利，但人們往往會因此認為，中國正在利用非洲的自然資源來滿足自己的工業生產需求。而且，中國向非洲國家出口的產品，往往質量很差、價格很低，這不僅削弱了非洲公司的競爭力，還讓它們越發依賴于中國。

最新研究表明，中國并沒有顯著提高非洲的技術水平，也沒有轉移足夠的生產技術，或者讓非洲的生產率水平得到實質性提升。

如何扭轉局勢？

最近，中國在對待非洲時變得更有策略，以免讓人覺得中非交流只會讓中國受益。比如說，外界相信，在今年的中非合作論壇上，中國將設法減少對非洲只重商貿而受到的廣泛批評，具體做法之一就是讓非洲公司更多地獲得資金渠道。實際上，2001-2010年，中國進出口銀行為非洲國家提供了627億美元貸款，比世界銀行多125億美元左右。

同時，和許多人的看法相反，中國的投資并不是集中在法制不健全的非洲國家。實際上，獲得中國投資最多的是南非。只是在西方政府退避三舍的其他非洲國家，中國人和中國公司的身影往往更為顯眼。

事實上，正如研究者指出的那樣，中國的投資重點并非自然資源，而是服務業和制造業。這表明，中國正在以更大的力度來幫助非洲國家增強競爭力。

最近，中國一直傾向于減少對大型石油和礦產協議的宣傳，而是把重點放在可以創造就業機會的領域，放在基礎設施投資和技術轉移方面。今年的中非合作論壇也將體現出這一點。

但相對于非洲資源遭人利用的顧慮，中國為鐵路及其他基礎設施項目提供的貸款足以抵消前者的影響嗎？

中國政府面臨的挑戰是，在進一步加深和非洲關系的同時，也要消除負面影響。中非合作論壇帶來的就是這樣的機會，這對中國及其對外政策模式，以及不斷邁出國門的中國企業來說，可能是一條扭轉局勢的途徑。

要做到這一點，關鍵在于確保在非洲運營的中國公司遵守當地法律法規，而且改變對當地人的看法，將他們視為平等的生意伙伴。唯有如此，中國才能在非洲既獲得人心，又獲得礦產。

馬克?埃斯波西托是哈佛大學商業和經濟學教授。特倫斯?謝是歐洲管理學院金融學副教授兼i7創新和競爭力研究所競爭力研究負責人。本文最初發表于The Conversation。（財富中文網）

譯者：Charlie

校對：詹妮

China’s ties to Africa are likely to get stronger this year as the world’s biggest economy appears poised to once again double its investments across the fast-growing continent.

The run-up to the sixth Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) to be held in South Africa is under way. The forum—in its 15th year and the first held under President Xi Jinping’s administration—has been the main venue for setting the investment, trade, and integration agenda between China and countries in Africa.

But has this relationship been as good for Africa as it has been for China? And what can other countries beginning to receive more of its largesse learn from it?

Spreading wealth

As the poster child for economic growth in recent decades, China has been increasingly keen to spread its wealth and influence around.

Even though the country is suffering from a slowdown and expected to achieve “only” single-digit growth rate in the coming years, it remains one of the fastest-growing economies in the world. Its success has been, in part, the result of it being the recipient of huge amounts of foreign direct investment itself.

As China gradually embraces the roles and responsibilities of the world’s biggest economy as well, it is increasingly reversing that flow of cash and is expected to soon surpass the U.S. as the largest investor in other countries.

The inauguration of the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, a rival to the World Bank and International Monetary Fund, is a sign of that, with its $100 billion in financial firepower, as is the new China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which will run from Gwadar in Pakistan to China’s western Xinjiang region, supported by a historical agreement of over $46 billion.

Indeed, the amount of investments made by China abroad is estimated to be $531 billion in outward foreign direct investment, with 4% of it—$22 billion—going to investments in natural resource extraction, finance, infrastructure, power generation, textiles, and home appliances in Africa.

That’s a small sum at first glance, but its economic impact to the region is both huge and far-reaching, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, with the biggest investments made in Nigeria, Sudan, South Africa, and Angola.

In addition to investment projects, China has quickly become the continent’s biggest trading partner, with trade volume of $166 billion in 2014. This is likely tocontinue to increase and reach an estimated $1.7 trillion by 2030.

Losing hearts, minds, and jobs?

But despite the substantial investments, most of the them have been routinely cast as detrimental to Africa’s overall competitiveness.

The projects are dependent on deals made at the highest political levels. They lack competitive and transparent bidding processes, and most of the work force employed at these ventures has been Chinese. Promises of job creation have not been fulfilled. Further, when Africans are hired, local rules and regulations are often flouted, leading at times to poor safety.

For instance, at Chinese-run mines in Zambia’s copper belt, employees must work for two years before they get safety helmets. Ventilation below ground is poor, and deadly accidents occur almost on a daily basis.

More frequently, jobs are lost to Chinese employees, who are ferried in project by project. For example, the growing Chinese presence in South Africa may have cost the country 75,000 jobs from 2000 to 2011. In Nigeria, the influx of low-priced Chinese textile goods has caused 80% of Nigerian companies in this industry to close.

Africans’ impression of Chinese firms could also be shaped by illegal practices carried out by them.

For example, by law, mining on small plots of 25 acres or less is restricted to Ghanaian nationals. However, many Chinese continue to explore for gold in conjunction with local landowners, even thoughregulations have made it clear that such practice is illegal. The result: Many Africans see themselves to be exploited by the newcomers.

One-sided trade?

Perhaps making matter worse, the kinds of goods that the two partners trade with each other have done little to change such perception.

Whereas China buys from Africa mainly natural resources—minerals and metals—African countries import primarily the finished results, ranging from machinery and electrical goods to plastics and rubber.

Such an arrangement could benefit both parties, but it’s more often seen as China exploiting Africa’s natural resources to feed its need for industrial output.

At the same time, by exporting cheap—and often shoddy—manufactured goods to African countries, local companies not only become less competitive but they also grow increasingly dependent on China.

Recent research has also suggested that the Chinese presence has failed to bring significant skill developments, adequate technological transfer or any measurable upgrade to the productivity levels to this part of the world.

Jobs and infrastructure, not just oil and mines

Recently, China has become more tactful in its approach to Africa, trying to preempt the perception that its presence in Africa may be one-sided only.

In this year’s China-Africa forum, for example, the Middle Kingdom is believed to be making efforts to mitigate the broad criticisms of its “mercantilist” approach toward Africa by, among other things, offering more access to capital for local companies. The fact is that China’s Export-Import Bank extended$62.7 billion in loans to African countries from 2001 to 2010, some $12.5 billion more than the World Bank.

And contrary to what many may believe, China’s investment is not concentrated in countries with inadequate rule of law. The biggest recipient is in fact South Africa—though the Chinese presence is often more visible in other countries from which Western governments have shied away.

Indeed, as researchers have pointed out, Chinese investments are not concentrated in natural resources: Services are the most common sector, with significant investments in manufacturing as well. This suggests that China is now doing more to help African countries to build up their competitiveness.

Lately, the Middle Kingdom has tended to reduce to publicize major oil and mining contracts and instead has focused more on areas where it’s creating jobs, investing in infrastructure, and transferring technology. And the latest Forum on China-Africa Cooperation is meant to showcase that.

But will loans to support new railroads and other infrastructure projects be enough to make up for concerns that African resources are being exploited?

The challenge for Xi, and China, is to further develop the relationship and at the same time alter sometimes negative perceptions. That’s the opportunity presented by the forum, which could be a game changer for China, its external policy model and its growing footprint beyond its borders.

Key to that is ensuring Chinese companies operating in Africa comply with local rules and regulations. They also have to change their views of the locals, so that the latter are seen as equal business partners.

Only by making such fundamental shifts can China capture people’s hearts and minds and not just their mines.

Mark Esposito is a professor of business & economics at Harvard University. Terence Tse is an associate professor of finance and head of competitiveness studies at i7 Institute for Innovation and Competitiveness at ESCP Europe. This piece was originally published on The Conversation.