美國制造成本已幾乎追平中國

????即使你不是諾貝爾經濟學獎得主，也知道正在進行的水力壓裂革命對美國非常有利。而另一件人們還不太了解的事情是，廉價的石油和天然氣已經讓美國制造業成本變得競爭力十足。據波士頓咨詢公司估計，現在在美國制造商品的平均成本只比在中國高5%，比在歐洲各大經濟體還要低10-20%。更令人震驚的是：該公司預計，到2018年，美國制造的成本將比中國便宜2-3%。

????You don’t need to a Nobel Prize in economics to know that the fracking revolution has been good for the U.S. What’s not so well known is just how competitive cheap oil and gas has made American manufacturing. BCG, the Boston consultancy, estimates the average cost to manufacture goods in the U.S. is now only 5% higher than in China and is actually 10% to 20% lower than in major European economies. Even more striking: BCG projects that by 2018 it will be 2% to 3% cheaper to make stuff here than in China.

????中美制造業的成本差距正在不斷縮小，部分原因在于中國的工資水平正在上漲，而美國公司一直在以比許多國際競爭對手更快的速度提高生產效率。不過，其中最大的一個因素可能是，水力壓裂技術極大地壓低了美國鋼鐵、鋁、造紙和石油化工等能源密集型產業所需的石油和天然氣的價格。據波士頓咨詢公司核算，美國的工業用電價格現在要比其他出口大國低30-50%。

????該公司的大衛?吉表示：“考慮到美國制造商從中國進口貨物時要面臨航運延誤、港口罷工的威脅，以及中國政府經常要求在華營商的外國公司必須在當地投資，與本土企業建立合資企業等因素，中美之間5%的成本差異其實并沒有那么顯著?！?/p>

????更低的能源價格還開啟了新的機會。比如，使用天然氣充當汽車和卡車的燃料，將降低美國對石油進口的依賴，并有助于減少溫室氣體排放。天然氣還能轉化為氫氣，作為豐田Mirai等新型汽車的燃料。（這家日本汽車巨頭將于今年夏天開始在加州接受這款汽車的訂單。）

????在過去幾年，廉價的能源已經吸引了各行各業的公司來美投資，投資總額高達1380億美元。比如，今年春天，石油化工巨頭沙索公司就在路易斯安那州斥資81億美元建起了乙烷裂解爐。而Cheniere等能源公司面向海外出口市場，投資數十億美元在墨西哥灣建立了液化天然氣終端，在海外，天然氣價格可能比美國本土貴上3到4倍。

????至于說美國的優勢將能保持多久？哈佛商學院教授邁克爾?波特攜手波士頓咨詢公司，在6月發表了一篇題為《美國非常規能源機遇》的報告。這份報告顯示，美國的水力壓裂技術領先其他國家約15年。一項最具說服力的，可支持這個論點的數據是：美國擁有101,117口水力壓裂油井；加拿大緊隨其后，擁有16,990口；而相比之下，中國只有258口水力壓裂油井。（財富中文網）

????譯者：嚴匡正

????審校：任文科

????Part of the reason for the narrowing gap is that wages have been rising in China. And American companies have been boosting their productivity faster than many of their international competitors. But perhaps the single largest factor is that fracking has helped dramatically drive down the price of oil and gas that’s being used in energy intensive industries such as steel, aluminum, paper and petrochemicals. BCG calculates that U.S. industrial electricity prices are now 30% to 50% lower than those of other major exporters.

????“A 5% price discrepancy in manufacturing between China and the US doesn’t amount to much,” says BCG’s David Gee, “when you consider that US manufacturers face the risks of delay when shipping from China, the threat of port strikes, and the local investments and partnerships that Beijing often requires of foreign companies doing business there.”

????Lower energy prices can also open up new opportunities such as a using natural gas to power fleet vehicles and trucks, which would reduce American dependence on foreign oil and cut greenhouse gases. Natural gas can also be converted into hydrogen to power fuel cells like the ones in Toyota’s Mirai passenger car. (The Japanese car giant will start taking orders for the Mirai in California this summer.)

????Over the last few years, cheap energy has encouraged players in various industries to earmark $138 billion for new U.S.-based investments. This spring, for example, the petrochemical giant Sasol started construction on an $8.1 billion ethane cracker at Lake Charles, La. And energy companies like Cheniere are building multi-billion LNG terminals on the Gulf of Mexico to export overseas, where natural gas can be three to four times more expensive than it is in the U.S.

????How long will America’s advantage last? Harvard Business School’s Michael Porter, who along with BCG issued a new report in June called “America’s Unconventional Energy Opportunity,” says that America has about a 15-year lead on other nations when it comes to fracking. The most telling number to make that point? The U.S. has 101,117 fracked wells, followed by Canada’s 16,990. By contrast China has 258.