會計謎團中的阿里巴巴究竟價值幾何？

????在公眾眼中，阿里巴巴集團（Alibaba Group Holding Ltd）總能抓住投資者的眼球，塑造符合當下投資者所推崇的資產組合。B2B商務？有。消費者線上購物？有。微型博客、社交媒體？有微博（Weibo）。在線支付服務？支付寶就是做這個的。移動互聯網產品和服務？沒問題，有UC瀏覽器。云計算、在線娛樂、職業足球隊？有，有，都有。

????阿里巴巴看上去并不怎么像一家公司，倒像是一只專注于中國科技和電商領域的交易所上市基金。

????在即將成為美國公開上市公司的當口，接受彭博資訊（Bloomberg）調查的分析師對阿里巴巴的整體估值為1980億美元。如果瑞士信貸（Credit Suisse）、德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）、高盛（Goldman Sachs）、摩根大通（J.P. Morgan）、摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）和花旗（Citi）等大牌投行的聯合承銷獲得成功，阿里巴巴的估值將躋身IBM、豐田（Toyota）和Verizon等大公司之列，與Facebook比肩。相應的估值倍數很是驚人：是按美國通用會計準則計算的截至2014年（3月）的年度收益的53.2倍，息稅折舊攤銷前利潤的40倍，以及營收的23.4倍。

????沒人指望能在阿里巴巴的IPO中撈到便宜貨，但這樣的定價水平已經遠遠超出了即便是一家完美的公司所能獲得的估值，而阿里巴巴并不完美。阿里巴巴之所以赴紐約證券交易所上市，是因為其首選的香港交易所不能接受企業內部人士對于董事會選舉的絕對控制權。阿里巴巴收購媒體企業后出現的一些會計問題也已經引發外界質疑。阿里巴巴在這一系列令人眼花繚亂的收購中進行的盡職調查是否有效？國內持有/國外投資的結構會造成所有人和股東們在公司未來訴求上的矛盾。美國證券交易委員會（SEC）仍在研究阿里巴巴的IPO文件，其路演再推遲一周。

????令人疑惑的是，阿里巴巴的財務報告缺乏不同業務分類的細分信息，而接受彭博資訊調查的那些分析師們在計算估值時本該需要這些重要信息。阿里巴巴五花八門的業務不應獲得相同的估值倍數，它們的增長率也不盡相同?，F實而言，也不可能將阿里巴巴的一項業務與某一獨立競爭對手相提并論。阿里巴巴的財務報表是按美國會計準則編制，要求公司報告首席運營決策者在考核績效和進行資源分配決策時所需的業務細分數據。對于一家資產構成如此廣泛的公司，合理的預期是它能至少劃分為幾項不同的業務。畢竟，互聯網商務與社交媒體有多少相似性呢？

????For most of its time in the public view, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd has been able to capture the investor zeitgeist, shaping its asset portfolio to accommodate whatever investors think is sexy at the moment. Business-to-business commerce? Check. Online shopping for consumers? Check. Micro-blogging, social media? There’s Weibo for that. Online payment service? Got it covered with Alipay. Mobile Internet products and services? No problem, UC Web fits the bill. Cloud computing, online entertainment,professional soccer team? Check, check and check.

????Alibaba is not so much a company as it is essentially an exchange traded fund for exposure to Chinese technology and commerce.

????On the cusp of becoming publicly-traded in the United States, a Bloomberg poll of analysts puts the value of the entire firm at $198 billion. If Alibaba’s syndicate of heavyweights – Credit Suisse CS , Deutsche Bank DB 1.29% , Goldman Sachs GS 0.27% , J.P. Morgan JPM 0.02% , Morgan Stanley MS 0.41% , and Citi C 0.46% – pull it off, the company’s valuation would join the ranks of IBM, Toyota TM , Verizon VZ -0.32% , and most fittingly,Facebook FB 0.16% . That kind of valuation brings with it breathtaking multiples: 53.2 times (March) 2014 year end GAAP earnings, 40 times EBITDA, and 23.4 times revenues.

????Nobody would expect an Alibaba IPO to be a bargain, but those levels go far beyond pricing the company for perfection – and this is a company that’s not perfect. Alibaba will be trading on the New York Exchange because first choice Hong Kong exchange couldn’t stomach the insider controlover the election of directors.Accounting problems in its media acquisitions have raised questions about effectiveness of Alibaba’s due diligence efforts during its rambunctious, pell-mell acquisition binge. The inside-China ownership/outside-China capital structurecreates owners and shareholders with conflicting claims on the firm’s future. And the SEC is still studying Alibaba’s offering documents, pushing the roadshow off for another week.

????One curiosity concerning the financial statements is Alibaba’s lack of information for each segment of its business segment information – something that should be critical for those analysts polled by Bloomberg in coming up their valuations. Alibaba’s disparate businesses aren’t all worth the same multiples of relevant yardsticks, and they don’t all grow at the same rate – and it’s impossible to realistically peg one Alibaba business to that of a stand-alone competitor. The firm’s financial statements are prepared on a U.S. accounting basis, requiring that the firm report essential information about the segments used by the chief operating decision maker for reviewing performance and making decisions about resource allocation. In a firm with an asset palette as widely varied as this one, it’s justifiable to expect at least a couple of different segments. After all, how similar is online commerce to social media?