中國影子銀行體系走向網絡化

????把中國的影子銀行體系比喻成一只巨獸并不算夸張。它存在于常規借貸渠道之外，也不受強大的監管部門控制，多少有些危險。

????中國社科院（ the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences）5月份公布的估算數據顯示，中國影子銀行的規模已經達到令人咋舌的4.4萬億美元，約為全國銀行總資產的20%——它的體量足以抗衡正規銀行系統，廣度足以讓它成為中國這個世界第二大經濟體的關鍵影響因素之一。

????中國影子銀行體系的網絡化程度正在不斷上升?，F在已經出現了拍拍貸（Ppdai.com）等2000多個P2P中介網站。它們的思路很簡單，那就是人們可以借錢給陌生人，而后者基本上可以用貸款買任何東西——新車、婚紗以及個體戶庫存。作為回報，出資人可以獲得20%以上的利息，遠高于傳統銀行存款3%的利率水平。

????研究機構高德納（Gartner）上海代表處研究主管沈哲怡指出：“投資者有追逐高回報的需求，而需要迅速籌集資金的小微企業則經常被常規借貸渠道拒于門外，P2P平臺可以有效地把二者對接起來?！?/p>

????在線P2P借貸并非中國獨有，它在西方的歷史更悠久【Lending Club是眾多西方P2P貸款網站中的一個，它提供個人貸款，而且已經接受了谷歌（Google）的投資】。為抵消全球金融市場陷入低谷的影響，中國政府采取了一系列刺激性開支措施；隨后，中國從2010年開始緊縮銀根，結果讓P2P貸款在這個世界上人口最多的國家找到了最大的受眾群體。

????有意思的是，這些P2P微型貸款的違約率只比中國頂尖金融機構公布的壞賬率高一點兒。

????沈哲怡說：“這些真誠守信的參與者都在設法為借方和貸方提供有效服務?？偟膩碚f，互聯網金融給金融機構提了個醒，讓它們意識到自己不能再像以前那樣坐等業務上門，同時盼著利潤能滾滾而來?！?/p>

????舉例來說，P2P貸款正在提高銀行獲取資金的成本。它迫使現有金融機構開始嘗試市場化利率和全新的業務模式。

????作為國內金融機構的主要監管部門，中國人民銀行（the People’s Bank of China）似乎樂于見到互聯網金融（包括P2P貸款）改變中國的銀行體系。同時，中國人民銀行正在設法對這個領域實施一定的監管，同時為消費者提供保護。一些批評人士警告，如果中國的在線貸款和理財體系遭到打擊，比如一家處于領先位置的電子商務企業或者互聯網公司倒閉，結果必將引起恐慌，而且可能對主流銀行業和整個經濟產生嚴重影響。

????野村證券（Nomura Research）駐北京研究人員神宮健認為：“金融監管未能跟上互聯網金融的快速發展。從銀行的角度來說，這些新型在線產品可能造成個人存款外流以及基金銷售額下降等情況?！?/p>

????但沈哲怡指出，中國政府不太可能很快就推出互聯網金融監管條例。

????他說：“這項工作非常困難。還沒有哪個國家在這方面取得過成功。監管部門需要很長時間才能找到合適的辦法?！保ㄘ敻恢形木W）

????譯者：Charlie

????It’s not an overstatement to liken China’s shadow banking system to an enormous beast. It exists outside regular lending channels. Somewhat ominously, it also lies beyond the control of the country’s powerful regulators.

????Shadow banking in China has reached a staggering $4.4 trillion, or about 20 percent of the country’s total bank assets, according to estimates by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences published in May—substantial enough to rival the country’s formal banking system, and broad enough to be a key economic driver for the world’s No. 2 economy.

????Increasingly China’s shadow banking is migrating online. There are now more than 2,000 websites such as Ppdai.com brokering peer-to-peer, or P2P, transactions. The idea is simple: People can lend their money to strangers for virtually anything—a new car, a wedding dress, inventory for a home-based business—and in return they enjoy rates of interest exceeding 20 percent, significantly better than the 3 percent they would earn by parking their money in a traditional Chinese savings account.

????“P2P as a platform efficiently matches the demand of investors looking for high return options with small and micro businesses who need quick funding but have been very much excluded from formal lending practices,” says Sandy Shen, research director in Gartner’s Shanghai office.

????Online P2P lending is not unique to China and has an older history in the West. (One example of many:Lending Club, which offers personal loans and has accepted investment from Google GOOG 0.87% .) But the practice is finding its biggest audience in the world’s most populous nation after the country tightened bank credit in 2010 following a bout of stimulus spending to counter the global financial downturn.

????Interestingly, the default rate on P2P micro-loans is only slightly higher than the bad-loans ratio reported by China’s biggest financial institutions.

????“There are sincere and honest players that try to serve the borrowers and lenders in an efficient way,” Shen says. “Internet finance in general is a wake-up call to financial institutions that they can no longer sit back doing business as usual and expect profits keep rolling in.”

????P2P lending, for example, is raising the cost for banks of acquiring funds. This in turn is forcing established lenders to experiment with interest rate liberalization and new business models.

????The People’s Bank of China, the country’s main regulator of financial institutions, seems to like the fact that Internet-based finance (which includes P2P lending) is shaking up the country’s banking system. At the same time, it seeks to impose some regulatory authority over the sector and put consumer protections in place. A shock to China’s online lending and wealth-management system—such as the collapse of a leading e-commerce or Internet company and ensuing panic—could seriously damage mainstream banking and the economy as a whole, some critics warn.

????“Financial regulation has failed to keep up with Internet finance’s rapid growth,” says Takeshi Jingu, a researcher at Nomura Research in Beijing. “From banks’ standpoint, the new online products could lead to an outflux of retail deposits and decreased fund sales.”

????Still, it’s unlikely that Chinese authorities will unveil regulations for Internet finance anytime soon, Shen says.

????“It will be very difficult. No country has been successfully doing that,” she says. “It will take a long time for the regulator to find the right approach.”