霍尼韋爾CEO：美國拿什么跟中國爭

????19世紀中葉，我們依靠人口增長和活力，在經濟上超越了英國。我們鼓勵商業、強烈的工作責任感和創新（其中有些是從英國人那里偷來的）。而在本世紀，中國可能超越美國，成為全世界最大的經濟體。雖然有人指出中國政治制度的不穩定性，但當前中國的政治制度與50年或者20年前相比已經有了很大的變化。中國或許需要解決更多問題（腐敗、財富分配不均、國有企業、污染和鬼城等），但他們已經證明有足夠的能力進化自己的制度，同時解決所面臨的問題。而我們卻一直在原地踏步。

????這個問題無關中國的“好”或 “壞”，而是有關于這個國家的客觀情況。按照目前的發展速度，在25年內，中國將成為全球最大的經濟體，但人均GDP仍然較低，這意味著中國依舊有巨大的發展潛力。當然，這并不意味著中國的發展會不間斷地持續下去。期間可能會出現問題。這也并不意味著我們就應該停止反對某些問題，比如網絡安全、領土爭端和知識產權等。

????我們需要完成兩個目標。第一個目標是與中國建立牢固的商業關系，類似與我們曾經與英國建立的關系。美國獨立戰爭之后的200年間，以及美國內戰期間我們努力維持英美關系的中立狀態之后的150年間，我們和英國一直保持著牢固的商業關系。當然這從來不是一件容易的事情。第二個目標（為第一個目標提供支持）是打造美國自己的競爭力。經濟規模等于人口乘以生產率（即人均GDP）。如果比人口，美國可能永遠比不過中國，所以我們需要專注于成為全世界最富創新力、生產率最高的國家?，F在，我們就像是在參加一場經濟上的奧運會，我們不能至專注于打敗屬于同一陣營的其他美國人。我們需要共和黨和民主黨精誠合作。雙方對每一個問題的觀點都有道理。我們需要求同存異。

????政府不僅要對商業進行監管，還要保持商業的正常運行。商業是生產率提高的來源，更代表了我們的生活標準。我們在這方面有許多優勢。有效的、明智的監管對于設定最低標準至關重要，保持商業的正常運行對于培養經濟增長所需的推動力有著關鍵作用，而經濟增長將提供就業和更多機遇，這是所有美國人希望看到的。

????現在，美國政府應該保持以下八個領域的正常運轉。首先是解決債務問題。我們不可能與糟糕的資產負債表爭輸贏。我們的資產負債表正在日益惡化，而不是好轉。估算沒有預測任何衰退，而衰退必將讓資產負債情況進一步惡化。按照當前的預測，隨著中國的GDP超過美國，我們的負債將超過GDP的100%。難道這就是我們希望留給子孫的遺產嗎？其次是重建瀕臨崩潰的基礎設施。第三是增加所有級別的數學與科學教育。我們需要更多的工程師，而不是律師和金融工程師。第四是移民制度改革。

????第五是侵權法改革。侵權制度對于解決社會不公平問題非常重要，但它同時也應該對提供投資與就業的公司做到公平。第六是資金充足的專利制度，能夠更快承認專利和解決爭端。第七是鼓勵效率、生產更多能源（既包括傳統能源，也包括經濟上可行的可再生能源）的能源政策。第八是自由和公平貿易。美國總統需要通過貿易促進權（TPA）來促進貿易協議，支持美國就業。如果沒有貿易促進權，將無法推動貿易協議的達成。貿易的支持者與反對者對這個問題都心知肚明。

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????During the mid 1800’s, we eclipsed the UK economically because of population growth and dynamism. We encouraged business, a strong working ethic, and innovation (some stolen from the UK). During this century, China may eclipse the US as the world’s biggest economy. While some might point to the unsustainability of China’s political system, it is very different than it was 50 years ago or 20 years ago. China may have more issues to deal with (corruption, wealth disparity, state owned enterprises, pollution, and ghost cities to name a few), but they have shown tremendous capability to evolve their system and address their issues. We are standing still.

????This is not a case of is China “good” or is China “bad,” rather it’s a case of China “is.” At current growth rates, in about 25 years China will be the world’s largest economy and will still have a lower GDP per capita, meaning more growth is possible. This is not to say China’s growth will continue uninterrupted. Something could go awry. It also doesn’t mean we should stop objecting to issues like cyber security, territorial disputes and intellectual property issues.

????We need to accomplish two goals. The first is to develop a strong commercial relationship with China similar to what we’ve been able to do with the UK in the 200 years since we last fought them in a war and the 150 years since we worked to keep them neutral during the U.S. Civil War. It’s never easy. The second (which supports the first) is to have our own American competitiveness agenda. Economic size represents population times productivity (defined as GDP per capita). We will never have more people than China so we need to focus on always being the most innovative and productive country on Earth. There is an Economic Olympics going on now and we can’t just focus on beating the other Americans on our team. We need Republicans and Democrats working together. There is truth to arguments on both sides of each issue. We need to find that common ground and act.

????Government doesn’t just regulate business, it enables it. Business is the source of productivity and our standard of living. We have a lot of strengths to build upon. Good, smart regulation is important to set minimum standards and enabling is important to foster that dynamism essential to a growing economy that provides the jobs and opportunities we all want to see.

????There are eight areas the U.S. government should enable now. First is resolving our debt. We can’t successfully compete with a bad balance sheet. We have a bad balance sheet that is getting worse, not better. The estimates don’t forecast any recessions, which will of course make them worse. Using current forecasts, at about the same time China’s GDP eclipses the U.S., our debt will exceed 100% of our GDP. Is that the legacy we want to leave our kids and grandkids? Second is rebuilding our crumbling infrastructure. Third is more math and science education at all levels. We need more engineers, not more lawyers and financial engineers. Fourth is immigration reform.

????Fifth is tort reform. The tort system is important to address social inequities, but it also needs to be fair to the companies that provide investment and jobs. Sixth is a well-funded, patent system with faster acknowledgment of patents and resolution of disputes. Seventh is an energy policy that encourages efficiency and production of more energy (traditional and economically viable renewables). Eighth is Free and Fair Trade. The President needs Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) to foster trade agreements that support U.S. jobs. Trade agreements are unlikely to move forward without it, and both opponents and proponents of trade know that.???