任天堂要玩完了嗎？

????大約在30年前，任天堂（Nintendo）賦予了視頻游戲行業新生，給予了它再次發展的機會。1985年，原創的任天堂娛樂系統（Nintendo Entertainment System）在北美國際玩具展覽會（North American International Toy Fair）上亮相時，甚至已經沒人想玩視頻游戲了。當時，視頻游戲業的收入一落千丈，已經從1983年的32億美元狂跌至1985年的1億美元。

????時間快進到2013年，電視游戲行業已經“升級”，年收入達到了930億美元——根據美國咨詢公司高德納（Gartner）的研究，這個數值將會在2015年達到1,110億美元。如今的問題在于，任天堂是否仍然是做大這塊蛋糕的一份子。1889年，這家公司成立時是一家游戲紙牌的生產商，多年后才不得不轉型做游戲。如今，面對Wii U電視游戲主機的銷量跳水，任天堂恐怕又得再次轉型了。

????上個月，任天堂總裁巖田聰宣布，公司調整了截至2014年3月31日的財年的合并財務預測。最新的預計不容樂觀：任天堂將Wii U的預計銷量下調了超過三分之二，從原來的900萬臺減少到了280萬臺，還將預計的游戲銷量下調一半減少到了1,900萬套。2012年11月推出的Wii U遠不如初代Wii火爆。后者于2006年面世，全球銷量已經超過了1億臺。

????然而，任天堂的不幸之一在于，盡管它的初代Wii走俏，卻并沒有完全帶動游戲軟件的銷量，而后者的大賣才是電視游戲的硬件制造商想要、甚至一定要看到的。獨立電視游戲分析家比利?皮吉昂說：“硬件營銷的全部意義在于出售游戲軟件。比起其他廠商，任天堂確實從硬件上實現了盈利，但這點利潤最后真的沒什么意義?！?/p>

????初代Wii確實擁有龐大的用戶基礎，不過這還不夠。皮吉昂說：“他們已經賣掉了那么多主機，就應該隨之推出更多的游戲軟件。而很多情況下人們購買了Wii，卻只玩隨機附帶的那一款游戲?！?/p>

????自任天堂于1月宣布下調預期以來，人們就開始提出問題：任天堂是應堅持自己的戰略，再試一試，還是應該換種方式解決問題？（公主興許就在下個城堡里呢？）從1月中旬巖田聰發表聲明起，就有議論認為，這家公司應當將戰略中心轉向為其他設備開發游戲。信息和數據分析公司IHS Technology的游戲調研主管皮爾斯?哈丁-羅爾斯表示，如果任天堂將馬里奧和其他小伙伴們移植到手機和平板電腦上，就可以在短期內增加公司的收入。不過，任天堂似乎已經決定堅持自身的核心戰略。

????哈丁-羅爾斯在一份市場觀察報告中寫道：“與蘋果（Apple）、谷歌（Google）、甚至維爾福（Valve）類似，任天堂遵循著自己的產品開發路線，對追隨收效甚微的市場潮流毫不動心。短期效益和微薄收入無法撼動它長期的戰略目標。任天堂圍繞著創新主題擲重金豪賭，這種策略增加了風險，但卻能帶來豐厚的回報?！?/p>

????哈丁-羅爾斯表示，任天堂已經承認Wii U的處境非常糟糕，但公司不會考慮任何短期的補救措施，比如降價。相反，任天堂或許會將注意力轉向Wii UGamePad游戲手柄這樣的配件。但這些舉措甚至連短期內的問題都解決不了。

????Nearly 30 years ago, Nintendo essentially gave the videogame industry a new life, and a second chance. In 1985, when the original Nintendo Entertainment System debuted at the North American International Toy Fair, no one even wanted to think about videogames after the great crash that saw revenues fall from $3.2 billion in 1983 to just $100 million in 1985.

????Fast-forward to 2013. The industry has "leveled up," so to speak, to $93 billion in 2013 -- and according to research from Gartner, that figure could reach $111 billion by 2015. The question now is whether Nintendo will still be a part of it. The company, which was founded in 1889 as a playing-card maker, has had to reinvent itself over the years. It may need to do so again as it faces declining sales of its Wii U videogame console.

????Last month, Nintendo president Satoru Iwata announced that the company had revised its full-year consolidated financial forecast for the fiscal year ending Mar. 31, 2014. Its new outlook was not good: Nintendo cut its forecast for its Wii U's annual sales by more than two thirds, from 9 million to 2.8 million, and also halved the projection for game sales to just 19 million units. The Wii U, which came out in November 2012, is far from the hit that was the original Wii, which came out in 2006 and has sold more than 100 million units worldwide.

????However, part of Nintendo's woes could be that the original Wii sold well, but didn't exactly result in massive subsequent software sales, which is what any videogame hardware maker wants -- and even has to see. "The whole point of a hardware play is to sell software," independent videogame analyst Billy Pidgeon said. "Nintendo does make money on the hardware while others don't, but in the end that is really inconsequential."

????The original Wii did have a great install base, but that wasn't enough, Pidgeon said. "They had so much hardware out there that it should have moved a lot more software," he said. "There were far too many cases where the Wii was bought by people who just played the one game that came with it."

????Since the January announcement, the question has been raised: Should Nintendo stick with its strategy and try again, or move on to a different approach? (Is the princess in the next castle?) Since the mid-January statements by Iwata, there has been chatter that the company could shift its focus to developing games for other devices. Piers Harding-Rolls, director of games research at IHS Technology, said that this could lead to short-term revenue growth as Mario and friends move to mobile devices and tablets. But it appears that the company has already opted to stick to its core strategy.

????"Nintendo, similar to Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOG), and perhaps even Valve, follows its own product development path and is reticent to follow market trends where it can only make a marginal impact," Harding-Rolls noted in his market insight report. "A short-term, or marginal impact is not aligned to its long-term strategic goals where it seeks to make relatively big bets around innovation, which increases risk but offers significant rewards."

????Nintendo has acknowledged that the Wii U is in a terrible position, Harding-Rolls said, but the company has ruled out any short-term fixes such as lowering the price. Instead, Nintendo may seek to concentrate on accessories such as the Wii U GamePad. But that could do little to solve the problems even in the short term.