季報顯示：大摩向好，高盛轉弱

????摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）CEO高文的全面整改策略終于開始見效。

????雖然第三季度華爾街交易員的日子不好過，但摩根士丹利這三個月的利潤和營收在財富管理業務增長的推動下均超出了預期。這家銀行第三季度實現利潤9.06億美元，一舉扭轉了上年同期虧損10億多美元的局面。

????上年同期的數據包括一項與公司債務相關的會計支出，很多華爾街人士都沒注意到這一點。但如果剔除此項支出和其他一次性費用，摩根士丹利的利潤從5.6億美元增加了一倍多，至10億多美元。

????聯系到主要競爭對手高盛（Goldman Sachs）最近這個季度的糟糕表現，摩根士丹利這樣的業績表現尤為引人矚目。上周四，高盛公布，第三季度利潤持平，營收較上年同期大降20%。高盛業績受到其債券、商品和外匯交易部門業務驟減的沖擊，自金融危機以來這個部門一直是高盛利潤的主要推動力。

????華爾街今夏秋初的那場混亂，摩根士丹利也不能完全置身事外。美聯儲（Federal Reserve）將縮減債券購買規模的表態造成利率上漲，土耳其里拉等新興市場貨幣的匯率急跌。美聯儲隨后收回了此項計劃，市場走勢立即逆轉，再一次讓華爾街大感意外。摩根士丹利固定收益和大宗商品業務的營收較上年同期驟減了43%，降幅與高盛相近。

????但季度業績似乎也證實了高文策略的正確性：推動摩根士丹利撤出波動性較大的華爾街業務，轉向為個人投資者提供儲蓄投資等咨詢業務，這些業務的服務費收入更為持續穩定。例如，最近季度摩根士丹利財富管理業務的營收就較上年增加了2.50億美元，盡管同期華爾街市場動蕩起伏。

????整體而言，摩根士丹利第三季度營收較上年同期增加了26億美元。相比之下，高盛的營收則減少了16億美元。

????過去一年半，高文成功地扭轉了不利的局面。繼債務評級遭下調，牽頭承銷的Facebook公司 IPO遭遇滑鐵盧等一系列令人失望的事件后，高文的CEO職位一度岌岌可危。由于個人投資者需要等一段時間才會返回市場，收購花旗（Citi）的美邦（Smith Barney）經紀業務回報緩慢。

????如今高文的策略正在顯現成效，而高盛突然之間變得沒有方向。摩根士丹利財富管理業務第三季度的凈資產收益率（這是華爾街非?？粗氐囊豁椫笜耍?3%。相比之下，高盛的整體凈資產回報率為8%，遠遠低于該公司長期宣稱的20%目標。不過，摩根士丹利的整體凈資產回報率為6%，仍低于高盛。

????高文調整摩根士丹利風險策略的舉措顯現效果的另一跡象是：最近這個季度的風險價值全方位下降，這項指標用于衡量交易部門在某一天可能損失多少錢。

????James Gorman's Morgan Stanley makeover is finally showing results.

????Despite a tough three months for Wall Street traders, Morgan Stanley's profits and revenue, driven by growth in its wealth management division, beat expectations for the third quarter. The bank earned $906 million, up from a loss of just over $1 billion a year ago.

????The year-ago quarter included a heavy hit from an accounting charge related to the company's debt that many on Wall Street ignore. Even excluding that charge and other one-time expenses, though, earnings at Morgan Stanley (MS) more than doubled to just over a $1 billion, up from $560 million.

????The results are particularly striking given how badly Morgan's chief rival Goldman Sachs stumbled in the quarter. On Thursday, Goldman (GS) said its earnings were flat and its revenue had tumbled 20% from a year ago. The firm was hit by a huge drop in its bond, commodities, and currency trading unit, which has been the chief driver of profits for Goldman since the financial crisis.

????Morgan Stanley wasn't able to completely sidestep the mayhem on Wall Street in the summer and early fall. Indications that the Federal Reserve would pull back on its bond buying caused interest rates to rise, and the currencies of emerging market nations such as Turkey to tumble. Markets quickly reversed when the Fed backed off that plan, which seemed to catch Wall Street by surprise yet again. Revenue in Morgan's fixed income and commodities unit fell by 43% from a year ago, similar to the drop at Goldman.

????But the quarterly results also seemed to validate Gorman's plan to push Morgan Stanley away from Wall Street's more volatile businesses, and toward advising individual investors on how to invest their savings, which produces more consistent fees. Revenue at Morgan Stanley's wealth management division, for instance, rose $250 million from a year ago despite the quarter's ups and downs on Wall Street.

????Overall, Morgan Stanley's revenue rose $2.6 billion in the third quarter from the same period a year ago. Goldman's, on the other hand, fell $1.6 billion.

????It has been a remarkable turnaround for Gorman in the past year and a half. The CEO seemed to be on the ropes following a string of disappointments for the firm, including a debt downgrade and the Facebook IPO fiasco, on which Morgan was the lead underwriter. The acquisition of Citi's Smith Barney brokerage division was slow to pay off as individual investors took a while to come back to the market.

????Now Gorman's strategy is paying off, and Goldman suddenly seems adrift. Morgan's wealth management unit had a return on equity, a key statistic on Wall Street, of 13% in the quarter. That compares to an overall ROE at Goldman of 8%, well below that firm's long stated goal of 20%. Morgan Stanley's overall ROE is still less than Goldman's at 6%.

????Another sign that Gorman's effort to re-risk Morgan Stanley is working: Value-at-risk, the measurement of how much money the firm's trading operations could potentially lose on a given day, fell in every category in the quarter.