HTC還能撐多久

????第一個倒下的是Palm，然后是諾基亞（Nokia），接下來是黑莓（BlackBerry）。它們都曾經是智能手機界舉足輕重的弄潮兒，可如今都已淪落到要看別人臉色行事的地步。深陷泥潭的宏達電（HTC）會成為下一家嗎？

????現在看來倒真有可能。本月初，HTC曾經警告投資者稱，它將出現公司上市以來的首次季度虧損。一些臺灣媒體隨后報道稱，HTC打算與聯想（Lenovo）合并。（還有消息稱聯想正在評估收購黑莓一事）。這在幾年前無疑是天方夜譚，HTC是最早生產Android手機的廠商，曾在智能手機界紅極一時。

????HTC手機一直被認為同蘋果及三星推出的高端產品不相上下。但它的市場份額和股價如今雙雙萎縮：在臺灣證券交易所上市的HTC股票過去兩年半內的跌幅已經超過了90%。

????成立于1997年的HTC一直是智能手機界最具創新力的公司之一。它在2000年生產出世界上首批帶有觸摸屏的手機，兩年之后，它又制造出第一部搭載有微軟（Microsoft）操作系統的智能手機。2006年，HTC從合約手機業務轉型，成為擁有獨立品牌的手機生產商。

????2007年，谷歌（Google）發布Android手機操作系統，HTC迅速跟進研發相應產品。2009年第三季度，也就是iPhone上市后的兩年，HTC發布了它的首款Android手機——G-1，又稱夢想。這款手機上市后好評如潮。一年后，谷歌希望生產自有品牌的Android手機，于是選擇HTC作為合作生產伙伴。不久，Nexus One誕生。

????Android手機發展迅速，從2011年年中開始已占據智能手機市場主導地位。HTC則依靠Android手機獨領風騷，風投一時無兩。HTC的市場份額節節上升，市值也一舉超過諾基亞。根據調研公司Canalys的數據，HTC在2011年第三季度曾經力壓三星和蘋果，成為美國最大的智能手機生產廠商。HTC在冠軍寶座上堅持了將近一個季度的時間。

????HTC當時在全球市場份額為11%，雖然絕對數字不高，但足以維持它全球第四大智能手機生產商的地位。但據調研機構ABI Research的數據，HTC目前在美國市場份額僅為7%，全球市場則低至2.8%。這個數字甚至還排不進全球前十大智能手機廠商，而三星目前則占據了全球三分之一的市場份額。

????隨著谷歌收購摩托羅拉移動（Motorola Mobility），以及蘋果打贏專利官司，成功禁售數款HTC手機，HTC如今可謂雪上加霜。在美國市場輸給三星對HTC構成的打擊最大。三星的創新基因非常優秀，而且財大氣粗，可以毫不猶豫地在Galaxy系列上大打價格戰。Galaxy S3和S4如今是美國市場最受歡迎的Android手機。即便在發展中國家，三星和蘋果也成功占據了高端市場，LG、華為（Huawei）、中興（ZTE）、小米（Xiaomi）等廠商則開始抓住中低端市場不斷增長的需求。

????過去兩年，HTC營收和利潤雙雙下滑。10月4日，這家公司提前發布了財報，稱公司整體營收將同比大跌14%，同時還將面臨巨額虧損，虧損幅度之大，將超出所有分析師的預期。本月上旬，HTC董事長王雪紅頗為樂觀的預測，公司將在本季度強勢反彈。許多投資者認為HTC“謙和之中見卓越”的口號無法和用戶產生共鳴。為了打消質疑，HTC最近簽下鋼鐵俠小羅伯特?唐尼作為代言人。

????即便如此，大多數分析師仍然不看好HTC。如今智能手機市場競爭太過激烈，HTC東山再起難度太大。本季度它也許能恢復盈利，但那不過是出售了所持有的美國耳機制造商Beats的股份。分析師們認為重組是遲早的事，HTC要么被實力更強大的競爭對手收購，要么和它們合并。但據稱王雪紅本人堅決反對并購。

????First Palm. Then Nokia (NOK). Then BlackBerry (BBRY). Is HTC the next smartphone maker to go from a strong contender in the smartphone market to a troubled company in need of rescue?

????It's starting to look like it. Earlier this month, the company warned investors to brace themselves for the company's first loss as a public company. Then a Taiwan tabloid reported last week that the company may be planning a merger with Lenovo (Lenovo is now reportedly mulling a bid for BlackBerry (BBRY)). That's a far cry from a few years ago, when HTC was an early manufacturer of Android phones and a mover and shaker in the smartphone market.

????HTC's phones have long been considered in the same league with the best phones from Apple (AAPL) and Samsung, but its market share and stock price have both been shrinking: The stock, traded on the Taiwan Stock Exchange, has lost more than 90% of its value in the past two and a half years.

????Founded in 1997, HTC has long been an innovative force in smartphones. In 2000, it developed one of the first phones with a touchscreen interface, and two years later it introduced the first smartphone powered by Microsoft (MSFT) software. In 2006, HTC went from being a contract manufacturer of phones to marketing handsets under its own brand.

????In 2007, when Google (GOOG) launched its Android mobile operating system, HTC quickly announced it was already at work on an Android phone. HTC launched its first Android phone in the fall of 2009, two years after Apple introduced the first iPhone. Named the G-1 or the Dream, the phone received early praise. A year later, when Google wanted to build its own Android phone, it turned to HTC to manufacture the device it later named the Nexus One.

????In early 2011, as Android phones began to dominate the smartphone market, HTC saw its market share expand and its market cap surpass that of Nokia's, which for years was the leading smartphone maker in the world. According to Canalys, HTC became the biggest U.S. smartphone vendor in the third quarter of 2011, surpassing Samsung and Apple and controlling nearly a quarter of the U.S. market.

????Globally, HTC held a smaller share back then -- 11% -- but big enough to make it the fourth-largest smartphone company in the world. Recently, however, HTC has held about 7% of the U.S. market and even less of the global market: 2.8%, according to ABI Research, which noted that the company isn't even ranked in the top 10 global smartphone makers. Samsung controls a third of that global market.

????HTC's decline accelerated as Google bought Motorola Mobility and as Apple won a court ban on some HTC handsets. Mostly, HTC lost its lead of the U.S. market to Samsung, a company with a long tradition of innovative engineering and a budget big enough to market its Galaxy line of phones aggressively. The Galaxy S3 and S4 became the most coveted Android phones in the U.S. Meanwhile, in emerging markets, Samsung and Apple held a lock on the high end while companies like LG, Huawei, ZTE,and Xiaomi began to capture the growing demand for low-cost smartphones.

????Over the past two years, HTC's revenue and profit dwindled. On Oct. 4, the company pre-announced financial results that showed revenue would be down 14% from a year ago and that it would post a loss bigger than even bearish analysts were expecting.

????Even so, most analysts continued to express concern that competition in the smartphone market was too intense and that HTC had too many things to fix before it could declare a turnaround. The company may post a profit this quarter, but only because it's selling its stake in a U.S. headphone maker. Beyond that, analysts see further restructuring, if not a buyout or merger with a larger company. Wang has repeatedly ruled out such a move.