美聯儲主席提名之爭：怎樣捍衛薩默斯

????他是潛在總統提名候選人中的惡靈弗萊迪嗎？（好萊塢電影中的變態惡魔殺手，制造噩夢殺死他人——譯注）自由派人士、女權主義者以及他蔑視的老對手們原本以為，他們已經摧毀了拉里?薩默斯出任美聯儲（Federal Reserve）主席的企圖。但他又回來了，在女性執掌美國貨幣供應大權的夢境中徘徊不去。

????白宮消息靈通人士告訴《華盛頓郵報》（Washington Post）稱，薩默斯仍有希望接替即將離任的本?伯南克——甚至還有人表示，他在總統提名的候選人中高居榜首。如果薩默斯獲得提名，批評人士會感到震驚。這些人是構成奧巴馬自由派基礎的核心，他們一直推舉的是美聯儲副主席詹尼特?耶倫。而且，還不只是自由派活動人士：根據路透社（Reuters）在經濟學家中進行的一項誰應成為下屆美聯儲主席的調查，耶倫輕松擊敗薩默斯。

????《華盛頓郵報》等表示，薩默斯仍在候選名單中，很大程度上是由于他和美國總統奧巴馬關系密切，以及他作為經濟顧問，曾經指引茫然的新政府度過了一場大衰退早期的黑暗時光。薩默斯信奉在困難時期大膽實行大規模的政府措施?！按碳ご胧┑囊幠Ｊ遣皇沁^大？”有一次他問我說，“這就像是問我，我會不會減肥減過頭?！?/p>

????奧巴馬還欠薩默斯關鍵的政治分。作為美國國家經濟委員會（National Economic Council）主任，薩默斯大力支持拯救美國汽車業的舉措。按他去年在競選日的原話，這項決定讓“俄亥俄州和密歇根州的經濟大為不同”，也讓共和黨候選人米特?羅姆尼在這兩個州競選失利。

????如果薩默斯獲得任命，白宮或許會以下列論據來回應外界的批評風潮：

????-- 批評人士稱，他在上世紀90年代支持取消金融管制【阻礙管制衍生品的提案獲得通過，贊成撤銷格拉斯-斯蒂格爾法案（Glass-Steagall）】，為金融危機創造了條件。但薩默斯一直以來都直言批評房利美（Fannie Mae）和房地美(Freddie Mac)，此兩者據信是導致金融市場崩潰重要得多的因素。今年早些時候，薩默斯在哈佛肯尼迪學院（Harvard Kennedy School）由我主持的一個小組論壇上指出：“我一聽人們談公私合作（public-private partnership），我就會攥緊自己的錢包。除了房地美，沒人比房利美更愛使用這個術語。大合作就相當于大災難?！?/p>

????（保守派批評人士可能會問，當太陽能公司Solyndra獲輸5億美元納稅人的錢時，薩默斯對公私合作的質疑在哪里？）

????-- 很多猜測都圍繞如果薩默斯當選主席對于貨幣政策意味著什么。但是，美聯儲主席的工作一項關鍵的內容就是預見將要到來的危機——在這一點上，2008年以前所有的監管部門都失察了。因此，要警惕白宮將薩默斯冠以（罕有的）未來災難預言家形象。2006年時，他曾經擔心市場承擔的風險水平過高，他說：“我們必須害怕的主要是人們壓根就不害怕?！?

????Call him the Freddy Krueger of potential presidential nominees. Liberals, feminists, and plain-old targets of his withering dismissiveness may have thought they destroyed Larry Summers' shot at the Federal Reserve chairmanship. But he's back -- haunting their dreams of seeing stately womanhood at the helm of the nation's money supply.

????White House leakers tell the Washington Post that Summers is still in the running to succeed outgoing Ben Bernanke -- and, by some accounts, even topping the President's list. A Summers nomination would shock and defy vocal critics who form the core of Obama's liberal base and have been pushing Fed Vice Chair Janet Yellen. And it's not just liberal activists: Yellen easily trounced Summers in a Reuters poll of economists asking who should be the next Fed chair.

????The Post and others say Summers remains in the mix largely because of President Obama's close relationship with, and regard for, the economic adviser who guided a new and uncertain administration through the early dark days of a massive recession. Summers is a believer in big, bold government action in the face of hard times. "Could the stimulus be too big?" he once said to me. "That's like asking me if I could lose too much weight."

????Obama also owes Summers critical political points. As National Economic Council director, Summers vigorously backed bailing out the auto industry. It was a decision that, in his own words on election day last year, led to a "very different economy in Ohio and a very different economy in Michigan" -- and a losing battle in both states, he noted, for Republican nominee Mitt Romney.

????If Summers does win the nomination, watch for the White House to counter a powerful storm of criticism with these talking points:

????-- Critics say his support for deregulation in the 1990s -- blocking proposals to regulate derivatives and favoring the elimination of Glass-Steagall -- contributed to the financial crisis. But Summers was long a vocal critic of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, arguably far more important contributors to the collapse. As Summers said at a Harvard Kennedy School panel that I moderated earlier this year: "When I hear people talk about public-private partnerships, I reach for my wallet. No one used the term more than Fannie Mae, unless it was Freddie Mac. Massive collaboration, massive disaster."

????(Conservative critics could ask where Summers' suspicions of public-private partnership were hiding when solar company Solyndra was blowing through half a billion dollars of taxpayer money.)

????-- Much speculation has, rightly, centered on what a Summers chairmanship would mean for monetary policy. But a key part of the Fed chair's job is an ability to foresee crises on the horizon -- something all top regulators dropped the ball on pre-2008. So watch for the White House to position Summers as a (rare) seer of dangers to come. In 2006, he worried about the level of risk-taking with these words: "The main thing we have to fear is lack of fear itself."?